November 8, the suspense of the US midterm elections will be announced soon. The topic of
has been hyped for nearly a year and has attracted the appetite of the whole world. People are talking about that if Republican wins in Democratic Party in midterm elections, then Trump will become the "shadow speaker", paving the way for presidential election in 2024, and Biden will also become the "slope-legged duck" president who is difficult to implement specific policies, and the next two years will be difficult.
So what exactly did the US midterm elections choose? How to choose? How can it be considered a big victory?
Let me give you a brief introduction today, which is to prepare a hot topic for the people who are following the US midterm elections.
U.S. Senate (House of Lords)
U.S. House of Representatives (House of Commons)
U.S. midterm elections refer to periodic elections held in November of the second year of the presidential term, once every four years. This year, has 435 (all) seats in the House of Representatives, 35 (about one-third) seats in the Senate will face re-elected elections, At the same time, 36 of the 50 states will be re-elected governors, and thousands of seats in the local executive and legislative bodies will also be re-elected.
The US Congress is divided into the Senate and the House of Representatives, and is the main battlefield of the US party struggle . The essence of the midterm elections is the Democratic Party and Republican Party for control of Congress . In the next two years, which party can become a majority in both houses, it will control the various votes in both houses, which will directly affect all aspects of the United States and even stir up the world situation.
So why are the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives so important?
The Senate and the House of Representatives have great power and can both propose bills . After the voting in the court is passed, it is submitted to another court for review. The other court can put forward the amendment opinion. After the voting is passed, it can become the law and handed over to the president for signature and release.
But their powers are also different:
The Senate enjoys the right to approve the appointment of a president-nominated ambassadors, senior federal officials (Feder chairmen, etc.), and federal judges. All kinds of treaties signed by the federal government, including foreign treaties, must be approved by the Senate before they can take effect.
and financial rights bills such as tax collection and appropriation, only the House of Representatives has the right to propose . The Senate can only consider such draft bills passed by the House of Representatives and has no right to propose them. For example, this year's "40 billion aid to Ukraine Act" involves money, which was proposed by the House of Representatives and re-examined by the Senate.
On impeachment right , impeachment can only be filed by the House of Representatives and must be approved by the Senate before it can be officially launched.
Yesterday, Biden was a little anxious. He said that if the Republican Party wins both the Senate and the House of Representatives, it will impeach him . Although I don’t even know what the reason for the impeachment is, according to the above rules, the House of Representatives is responsible for the impeachment and the Senate is responsible for the trial. Both houses are under the control of the Republican Party. If you want to inflict crimes, why not worry?
Look at these powers in the two houses, the original intention of design is to restrict each other of powers, but this mutual restraint has now become a tool for the party to fight against differences. No wonder the confrontation in the United States has been so sharp in recent years, and it has also created "beautiful scenery" such as Capitol Hill riots, abolishing the right to abortion, Mar-a-Lago search, hammering Pelosi husband.
Let’s talk about the composition of members of the Senate and House of Representatives.
From the above brief division of labor, it can be seen that the power of the House of Representatives focuses more on economic, fiscal and taxation aspects, because this is related to the vital interests of the people . The Senate focuses more on personnel removal, appointments, and review of bills passed by the House of Representatives, and is responsible for checking the House of Representatives.
Therefore, Representatives tend to represent public opinion widely, while senators tend to be elite . The US federal affairs, diplomacy, and major committees are all led by the Senate, and the Senators are obviously more powerful.
Therefore, for the sake of political functions, the Senate implemented an average representative system , with 2 people selected for each state, and 50 states
(not available in Washington, DC). The term of office is 6 years, and 1/3 of them are re-elected every two years to ensure political stability. (35 people were re-elected this year because some members of parliament have special circumstances)Senate Speaker is nominally the Vice President ( Harris ), but does not participate in the Senate voting and only votes when the positive and negative votes are the first heir to the president be unable to perform his duties for some reason.
The House of Representatives implements a proportional representation system , which is elected according to the population ratio of each state. About 500,000 people are selected, and a total of 435 are . The large population California has more than 50 members of the House of Representatives, while the few states with a small number have only one, with a term of 2 years, and all are re-elected after the expiration to ensure the latest public opinion is grasped.
The Speaker of the House of Representatives is elected, usually a member of the majority, and the second heir to whom the president is unable to perform his duties for some reason. If the Democrats cannot become the majority party of the House of Representatives, then the current Speaker Pelosi is likely to retire.
or above is the origin of the election seats between the two parties in the midterm elections.
So what is the election process?
is similar to the presidential election, and it is divided into two stages. is the primary election and the other is the general election.
First talk about the House of Representatives, The election of the House of Representatives is partitioned. California, the United States has a large population, so there are more than 50 members of parliament, so California needs to be divided into more than 50 constituencies, and each constituency elects a member of the constituency. The main competition in a constituency is the Republican and the Democratic Party. The United States does not only allow two parties to compete, but also other parties. But the entire political tradition and political reality lead to the vast majority of elections, which ended up being a showdown between the Republican and the Democratic Party.
Before the showdown, The Republican Party of the United States and the Democratic Party each launched their own candidates, which is the primary election within the party.
For example, this year, previous lawmakers were originally Democrats, and the Democrats generally will not launch new candidates to compete with the current one. Opposition Republicans generally introduce several candidates to compete with each other, and the last winner competes with the Republican and Democrats.
In this year's Republican primary election, once the candidates of gained Trump's support, they would "like a help from gods". In the party's primary election, "killed all sides", This also reflects Trump's appeal in the United States.
Trump stands for Florida Senator Marco Rubio
The primary election for the U.S. Congress has basically been completed in the summer. After the primary election, there is a showdown between the candidates of two parties in each constituency, which will be held on Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Which candidate has won more votes in the universal election of constituency , and is elected as a member of the constituency in the House of Representatives.
The difference between the election of senators and members of the House of Representatives is that they do not divide . Two people are elected in each state, which are also divided into primary and general elections. Other procedures are similar to those of the House of Representatives elections.
or above is the basic situation of the US midterm elections.
Having said so much, what is the situation of the US midterm election this year? Let’s look at the statistics made by the American polling agency.
is expected to control the probability of the Senate, red is Republican
is expected to control the probability of the House of Representatives, red is Republican
From the figure, it can be seen that the Republican Party has been fierce since October, and not only widens the gap with its opponents in the House of Representatives battle, but also begins to overtake the Democratic Party in the struggle around the Senate majority. If the Republicans control the two houses, it will be the real that will beat .
Who will win the midterm election? We will wait for the results after a few days.
There is a high probability that after the midterm elections, Trump will announce his participation in the 2024 US presidential election, and the US party struggle will also become fierce.
At this moment, the classic quotes of the great greed Yan Shifan came to my mind:
Stir, let’s see what “democracy” and “freedom” will stir the water of the United States into, The turmoil in American politics, I wonder if it will be a blessing or a disaster for the whole world?
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