[Text/ Observer Network Xu Lei Editor/Xu Qianang] As Republican crossed the threshold of 218 seats in charge of the House of Representatives on November 16, the ownership of the two houses of Congress in the United States this time of midterm elections has been determined: the Democrats defended the Senate, and the Republicans took back the House of Representatives.
At present, both sides have begun to plan for the next two years: the Republican Party has bargaining chips to weaken the President's Biden agenda and conduct a series of investigations, but a majority with a weak advantage will pose direct challenges to Republican leaders and complicate the party's ability to govern. According to the agenda disclosed by many US media such as " New York Times " and CNN, the Republican Party mainly wants to devote its energy to investigations, including an investigation of Biden's son Hunter's overseas transactions; an investigation of Pelosi ; an investigation of the FBI's raid on Trump's Mar-a-Lago.
On the other hand, the Democrats who barely hold on to the Senate are hoping to take advantage of the advantages of holding the two houses before the change of leadership to pass some agendas. The most promising thing is the same-sex marriage bill. As for abortion rights, even Biden admitted that there is no vote to pass legislation in Congress yet.
Another thing worth noting is that Attorney General Garland just appointed a special prosecutor Jack Smith on the 18th to investigate the case involving Trump , a senior war crimes prosecutor, who will investigate the Capitol Hill riots and the secret documents of Mar-a-Lago .
Now, although the specific seat distribution of Congress will wait for further counting votes in some states, the situation is becoming clearer. It is almost certain that both parties will have only a slight advantage in their respective territories, which may bring chaos to the next Congress.
Republicans: The main agenda is investigation, not legislation
Currently, the Republicans have won 218 seats in the House of Representatives, the Democrats have won 212 seats, and there are still 6 seats to be decided. It is generally predicted that the Republican Party will eventually hold its single-digit advantage in the House of Representatives. Although this was worse than expected, making their victory in the House look like a loss, they did win and had a huge impact on Biden's remaining two years of term.
Associated Press screenshot
House Republican leader McCarthy html has won the nomination for House Speaker on the 215th. The new Congress will be held in January next year, and a formal vote will be held at that time.
Before the election, McCarthy listed the main agenda after controlling the House in an interview with CNN: passed legislation to control the border, prevent more illegal immigrants from pouring into the United States, while cutting government spending and launching a strict investigation into the Biden administration.
Recently, judging from some statements by Republican Representatives, they seem to put the investigation into the top priority. The New York Times reported on the 16th bluntly stated: "Their main agenda is investigation, not legislation."
According to CNN, House Republicans are considering potential investigations into everything, includes the chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan , the Biden administration's border policy, the FBI's raid on Mar-a-Lago, the business deal involving Biden's son Hunter, and the closing of school related to COVID-19 and the decision behind the vaccine order...
House Republican No. 2, Louisiana Representatives Steve Scalis (Steve "We must oversee this administration without mercy, from the politicization of the Justice Department to the provisions issued by each agency to kill jobs, we need to make the failure of this administration's actions and policies 'glow'."
htmlOn 14, at a closed-door meeting of Republicans, right-wing lawmakers including Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene received a promise to investigate Pelosi and the Justice Department's treatment of defendants who were imprisoned for the Capitol Hill riot.In addition, the most popular one is McCarthy said more than once that "Impulse Biden". At present, the idea of impeachment is almost impossible to achieve since the Senate is still in the hands of Democrats.House Speaker Pelosi led the House to initiate the impeachment of Trump a few years ago, and ultimately failed to pass the Republican-controlled Senate.
The impeachment of the US president generally takes two main steps: First, the House of Representatives will vote to decide whether to impeach, and the draft impeachment will list in detail the allegations of the president endangering the country, which constitutes articles of impeachment; second, once the draft impeachment is passed by the House of Representatives, the Senate must trial and debate these allegations, but only two-thirds of the Senate senators support the impeachment allegations, and the impeachment can finally be implemented, otherwise the president will escape.
Not to mention impeachment of Biden, The main question for House Republicans now is whether McCarthy, who has just been nominated for the new speaker, can achieve the necessary unity to complete basic tasks such as funding the government; or, uncompromising far-right Republicans will put the House in unmanageable chaos.
The New York Times analyzed that the situation is that the Republican majority is much smaller than expected, which means that fewer Republicans from swing constituencies are not very troublesome, and McCarthy needs to rely more on those radical far-rights.
At the same time, McCarthy also needs to protect new members who are less inflammatory, such as new members from New York, who will first become the primary target of the Democratic Party's "reversal".
McCarthy Source: New York Times
Democratic Party: Legislation for the right to abortion, but it cannot be done
Before the change of leadership in January next year, the Democratic Party needs to take advantage of the moment to take control of the two houses and complete some agendas.
Same-sex marriage bill was taken by the Democrats as one of the first major agenda items for the post-election meeting. On November 16, the same day that the Republicans confirmed the ownership of the next House of Representatives, the Democratic-controlled Senate took a key step towards passing legislation to provide federal protection for same-sex marriage: 62 to 37, Democrats and 12 Republicans promoted the Senate pre-vote for the Respect for Marriage Act. The result of
has allowed the bill to overcome the biggest obstacle in the Senate - the 60 vote threshold. Next, the bill needs to pass a formal vote in the Senate, which will then be passed in the House and will eventually be submitted to Biden for signature.
Senate Majority Leader Schumer said the bill is expected to be passed after Thanksgiving, saying it will be "one of the real highlights of the agency this year" and "one of the major achievements the Senate has made so far."
This bill does not require states to allow same-sex couples to marry, but will repeal the Defense of Marriage Act, which refuses federal benefits to same-sex couples. The bill entered the legislative agenda after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the case of Ronaldo v. Wade earlier this year because there are concerns that the legal arguments used by the conservative Supreme Court when overturning the case of Ronaldo v. Wade can also be used in other cases in the future, such as same-sex marriage.
Compared with the same-sex marriage legislation, although the right to abortion helped the Democrats win back the championship in this election, the Democratic Party’s commitment to “protecting the right to abortion” is still full of legislative difficulties.
Before the midterm elections, in a speech chaired by the Democratic National Committee in Washington, D.C. on October 18, Biden promised that if the Democrats continue to control both houses after the midterm elections, it would push the next Congress to codify the contents of the protection of abortion rights in the Ronaldo v. Wade into law. He said the first bill he will submit includes protecting abortion rights and hopes to sign the bill on January 22 next year on the 50th anniversary of the verdict in Rowe v. Wade.
However, Democrats lost the House of Representatives despite performing better than expected in the midterm elections. On November 14, when Biden attended G20 at Indonesian , admitted that the Democratic Party still lacked the ability to write abortion rights into the law. "I don't think we have enough votes yet."
When asked what voters might expect on this issue, Biden replied: "I don't think they're looking forward to it too much."”
Biden attended a press conference in Indonesia Video screenshot
Next, the Democrats’ focus on this issue will be to block Republican Senator Graham 9 bills and other bills.
Minnesota Democratic Senator Tina Smith (Tina Smith said Democrats’ “first task” is to “stop implementing any national ban”, while the second task is to “find all ways to continue protecting abortion rights,” such as drug abortion.
This year, the Senate has failed twice in its efforts to write abortion rights into the bill, which is far from the required 60 vote threshold due to opposition from Democratic centrist Senator Manchin and all Republicans.
Starting next year, Republicans will control the House, which will make They have the ability to stop any abortion legislation. And even if the Democrats win Georgia next month, with only 51 seats in the Senate, they can hardly take action on protecting abortion rights unless through executive power.
It is worth noting that on the 18th, Attorney General Garland appointed a special prosecutor to take over two major investigations involving Trump—his role in the Capitol Hill riots and his bringing sensitive documents back to Mar-a-Lago. Smith) is the former head of the Justice Department's Public Integrity Division and a senior war crimes prosecutor. Garland reportedly nominated him to protect the Justice Department from allegations that "the investigation of Trump is politically motivated."
is ready to face a difficult period in Washington's legislation
The Washington Post counts that for most of the U.S. history, the president's party has controlled both houses simultaneously. But since WWII , the division between the government and Congress has almost become the norm: in the past 52 years, only 16 years have been the president's party at the same time. Two Houses.
Ten years ago, history was very similar. At that time, the US president was still Obama . When the Republican majority in the House came to power, he promised to curb the Democratic agenda, cut spending, and investigate White House . As a result, years of fierce fighting between the two parties put the government in a deadlock.
Now, both parties occupy a weak majority in both houses. CNN reported on the 17th that both parties are extremely pessimistic about the future prospects and are ready to face a difficult period in Washington's legislation.
Michigan Democratic Senator Debbie Stabene Stabenow said: "If Republicans in the House just want to be a party to the investigation and find some reason to impeach Biden, they will pay the price in 2024. ”
CNN quoted more than a dozen congressmen from both parties as saying that what is even more worrying is how Congress will deal with the government’s basic needs: provide funding for federal agencies and raise national debt ceilings to avoid unprecedented debt defaults…
Rep. Brian, Republican of Florida Mast predicts that Republicans will have a strong desire to use any funding struggle to advance their priorities, such as border immigration issues—even if it means the risk that the government will close the door.
It can be predicted that in the next two years, House Republican leaders will face some difficult problems, especially intra-party unity; and how will the House Democrats reshuffle internally after Pelosi's "resignation", and To be observed.
On the other side, the Senate is waiting for Georgia in December to decide the key position to consolidate its position and who will fall.
As for the White House, Biden, who has been dealing with Congress for most of his life, will undoubtedly face a more constrained term than in the previous two years.
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