According to the United Nations "World Population Outlook 2022" report, the global population will reach 8 billion by the 15th of this month. This number will continue to grow in the next few decades, but the growth rate will slow down and there will be regional differences.
Growth continues
AFP html cited data from the United Nations Population Department on the 57th that the global population in 1950 was 2.5 billion, reaching 8 billion means more than tripling.
Due to the increase in life expectancy and population age, the United Nations expects the global population to grow to around 8.5 billion by 2030, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050, reaching a peak of about 10.4 billion in the 1980s, and maintaining this level until 2100.
However, a 2020 study by the Institute of Health Indexes and Assessment of the University of Washington calculated that the global population will peak in 2064, but it will not reach 10 billion, and will decrease to 8.8 billion by 2100. Stan Emil Wolsett, the lead author of the
study, believes that his team used a "completely different fertility model" from the United Nations and estimated that the global population peak was low, ranging from 9 billion to 10 billion.
Growth rate slowed down
United Nations Population Fund Rachel Snow told AFP that the annual growth rate of the world population peaked at 2.1% between 1962 and 1965, and has since fallen sharply, less than 1% in 2020. The United Nations predicts that the annual global population growth rate may drop to around 0.5% by 2050 due to the continued decline in fertility.
United Nations data shows that in 2021, the average fertility rate of the global population is 2.3, that is, an average of 2.3 children per woman in her lifetime, while the fertility rate in 1950 was 5, and is expected to drop to 2.1 by 2050.
Snow said that most people around the world currently live in countries or regions with fertility rates below the "fertility replacement level". The level of fertility replacement refers to the average of about 2.1 children per woman, which means that the number of births and deaths tends to be balanced, and the population has stopped growing and remained stable.
On the other hand, the global average life expectancy of continues to increase, coupled with the decline in fertility rate, will aggravate population aging, and the increase in nursing demand for the elderly will affect the labor market and the national pension system.
United Nations data shows that the global average life expectancy in 2019 was 72.8 years, 9 years more than in 1990; by 2050, the average life expectancy is expected to reach 77.2 years. The proportion of the population over 65 years old accounts for 10% in 2022 and will rise to 16% by 2050.
regions are very different
0 The United Nations predicts that by 2050, more than half of the global new population will be concentrated in the Congo (DPRK), Egypt , Ethiopia , India, Nigeria , Pakistan , Philippines and Tanzania .
According to Snow, the average age gap between different regions has "never been as big as it is today." The current average age in Europe is 41.7 years old, while the current average age in sub-Saharan is 17.6 years old in South Africa.
Snow believes that the average age may gradually become balanced in the future, but unlike in the past, the average age of each country may be mostly in the youth class, the average age of each country may be mostly in the elderly class in the future.
According to the World Population Outlook 2022 report, India is expected to become the largest country in population as early as 2023 and reach 1.7 billion in 2050, although its fertility rate is already below the level of fertility replacement. (Xinhua News Agency)
