The way of cross-strait unification is to promote unification through peace, promote unification through military affairs, and promote unification through politics. Today, Gao Anguo wants to talk to you about the mainland's to promote unification through economics .
In the past five years, just judging from the economic situation of cross-strait trade development, Taiwan has supported Taiwan by trade with the mainland!
In 2020, due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war and the new crown pneumonia, Taiwan's trade surplus with the mainland expanded to more than 130 billion US dollars, which means that it made so much last year
If it is not included in the figures for this year, Taiwan's trade surplus with the mainland will be between about 700 and more than 100 billion US dollars in the five years from 2015 to 2019.
. In the past five years, Taiwan's global trade surplus was about 30 billion to nearly 50 billion US dollars.
From these two numbers, if the mainland engages in a trade war with Taiwan, Taiwan's global trade will make more than 40 billion to 60 billion US dollars less each year.
On the other hand, in the past five years, Taiwan's total exports to the mainland were about US$140 billion to US$160 billion.
If the mainland stops importing goods to Taiwan, Taiwanese manufacturers will lose approximately an average of US$150 billion in sales revenue per year.
That means that the income of about 4.5 trillion NTD is reduced every year. Taiwan’s total budget in the past five years is only about NT$1.9 trillion per year.
From these two numbers, as long as the mainland suspends trade with Taiwan, more than one million workers and service workers in Taiwan will be unemployed in two or three months.
At this time, hundreds of thousands of people will go to the presidential palace to make rice for a long time to fight. Most of Taiwan's factories will be moved to the mainland, and a small number will go to Southeast Asian countries.
Next, young people in Taiwan will leave Taiwan and find jobs in mainland China or other countries. Next, Taiwan's election will quickly tilt towards the claim of peaceful reunification of cross-straits or one family on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. What price will the mainland pay for a trade war like
? Taiwan exports to the mainland on average about US$150 billion in goods per year, of which about 70% are components and semiconductor products for information and communications.
If these products are purchased from Japan, South Korea, Germany, Netherland , Israel and other countries, they will have to pay about 10% more, which means they will spend about US$10 billion more.
If the military unification of Taiwan is unavoidable! The combat military expenditure for the three armies prepared to mobilize, the combat readiness and preparation of weapons, etc., will be at least 40 billion to 50 billion US dollars.
At the beginning of the war, at least 500 Dongfeng series missiles will be used. The cost of a Dongfeng 17 is at least 15 million US dollars. The M-Generation missiles and rockets launched on the first day of the full war are worth nearly 10 billion US dollars. The worst thing about
is that at least more than 100,000 casualties will cause such a severe national pain and family tragedy! According to the above analysis, as long as the trade war is spent about $10 billion, the Taiwan issue can be resolved as soon as possible.
In fact, the above is one of the means to ask Tsai Ing-wen to step down. Tsai Ing-wen is waiting for peaceful reunification when she gets off the stage!
