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Core viewpoint:
Automobile electrification has entered the stage of full implementation of the industry from policy promotion. We have conducted a detailed review and comparison of the foreign new energy vehicle industry, and discussed in detail the development ideas of the new energy vehicle industry in the United States, Japan and Germany. (1) From a policy perspective, the long-term strategic goals of the new energy vehicle industry are clear and clear. Faced with long-term problems such as resources and environment, and the rapid decline in electric system costs, all countries regard electrification as the medium- and long-term goal of the development of the automobile industry. Germany and Japan have formulated detailed industrial development technology routes and made medium- and long-term development plans for batteries and complete vehicles. (2) From the perspective of OEMs, it has become a consensus to transform into new energy. Japanese and American OEMs started their research and development of new energy vehicles early and had sufficient technical reserves; European manufacturers previously focused on the development of diesel and hydrogen fuel cells, and entered electrification relatively late, but they still have strong strength in R&D and industrialization.
Get rid of cost thinking and strengthen the added value of electric vehicles. We believe that this round of rise in automobile electrification will be a complete change, and the impact will far exceed the previous development of hybrid systems. (1) The penetration of hybrid vehicles has always been low. The reason is that it has not deviated from cost thinking, and only innovated on internal combustion engines, and the product lacks qualitative change. Technical barriers also limit broad innovation. (2) Analogizes the rapid penetration of smartphones. Since Google and Apple entered the mobile field, mobile phones have evolved from call entertainment tools to important smart terminals in the Internet era, carrying the task of receiving various content services. Therefore, in the process of mobile phone positioning evolution, unit price has not decreased but increased. (3) We believe that new energy vehicles naturally have advantages in low usage costs, strong power, intelligent networking, etc., and have service attributes. They are expected to become the next mobile terminal under the background of communication system upgrades.
The proportion of high-end models of new energy passenger cars has increased, pushing the power battery pattern to the top. Judging from the sales structure of new energy passenger cars in recent years, the proportion of models A-class and above has continued to increase. At the same time, the new subsidy policies continue to tilt towards high battery life and high energy density, and the proportion of high-end models has continued to increase. The leading power battery companies cover the high-end models of most leading automakers, and the trend of the power battery pattern becoming increasingly clear: industry leaders strengthen the platform advantages, high-basic new entrants make key breakthroughs in mainstream customers, and lithium iron phosphate battery technology upgrade, jointly build investment opportunities in the power battery link.
electrolyte industry trends are more beneficial to the upward trend, and the demand for high-end negative electrode materials is increased. Whether the industry structure is good is a key prerequisite for us to choose investment opportunities. At present, electrolyte products are in an upward cycle of steady and rising prices. It is expected that the industry's profitability will gradually recover, and the customer structure of leading enterprises is good, and it is expected to usher in an increase in product volume and price. The penetration rate of high-nickel ternary batteries is growing rapidly, and the electrolyte industry will gradually reflect competition in formulas and additives, and leading companies are expected to further enhance the industry's competitive barriers. In addition, driven by the increase in technical requirements of downstream batteries, the share of artificial graphite in negative electrode materials has gradually increased in recent years, and the demand for high-end negative electrode materials has increased significantly; since the second quarter of this year, many negative electrode companies have started production of self-built graphitization production capacity, which is expected to accelerate the industrial promotion of high-end products while reducing costs.
Report content:
1. Automobile electrification, from policy promotion to the industry to fully implement (omitted)
2. Get rid of cost thinking, electric vehicles should strengthen their differentiated added value
(I) Gains and losses of automobile hybrid: It is difficult to get rid of policy dependence
. Toyota 's 21st century project-G21
The first hybrid vehicle was Lohner-Porsche developed by Ferdinand Porsche in 1901. It is a system connected in series by the engine and the hub motor. But the real rise of hybrid cars came after the launch of the Toyota Prius in 1997. In 1993, Toyota launched the G21 project for the 21st Century Automobile Project with great strategic vision, aiming to develop a model with a fuel efficiency of twice that of traditional cars. In 1995, Toyota launched the hybrid concept car, the first-generation Prius, at the Tokyo Motor Show.A year after testing, Prius began selling in the Japanese market in December 1997 and exported small quantities to the United States, the United Kingdom and other markets. In 1999, Honda also launched the Hybrid Insight.
. Hybrid vehicles are difficult to get rid of policies and oil price factors
Japan is the world's largest hybrid vehicle market, accounting for about 45% of global hybrid vehicle sales. Starting from April 2009, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport jointly launched the "Environmental Vehicle Subsidy", giving a subsidy of 100,000 to 250,000 yen to passenger cars that meet certain environmental standards. The implementation of this round of subsidy policy has greatly promoted the development of hybrid vehicles in Japan. Not considering small cars, in 2018, Japan's hybrid vehicle sales accounted for 19%.
The United States is the second largest hybrid vehicle market in the world, accounting for about 36% of global hybrid vehicle sales. In 2005, the United States introduced the Energy Act to provide tax exemptions for energy-saving vehicles and alternative fuel models. Hybrid models can receive tax subsidies of around $2,400. Coupled with the rise in oil prices, the penetration rate of U.S. hybrid vehicles reached 3.19% in 2013. However, as oil prices decline and subsidy policies tilt towards PHEV and EV, the proportion of hybrid vehicles continues to decline.
Reason 1: The technology is complex, restricting the large-scale promotion of models
After entering the 21st century, due to the rise in oil prices and the promotion of government policies, mainstream OEMs have also launched their own hybrid versions on traditional fuel vehicles one after another. However, due to the technical barriers and patent restrictions of hybrid, the fuel consumption and performance of various manufacturers have greatly differentiated, which restricted the promotion of hybrid technology.
Reason 2: Lack of new derivative demand, consumers are enthusiastic about purchasing
Hybrid vehicles have added electric modules on the basis of the original internal combustion engine, which has the advantages of energy saving and emission reduction, but in fact, it has not brought about fundamental changes in the product. Most hybrid models have even been simply upgraded based on traditional cars. On the contrary, the advantage of hybrid vehicles is at the expense of part of their power performance. Therefore, hybrid technology has always been difficult to get rid of the influence of policies and energy prices. Hybrid does not think about the new demand points of products from a cost perspective, which has affected the further penetration of the hybrid system market.
(II) Drawing on smartphones, new demands triggered consumer changes
.2000~2010, smartphones started early, but their initial development was slow
Nokia entered the smartphone era very early, and far earlier than Google and Apple. In 1998, Ericsson, Nokia, Motorola and Psion jointly established Symbian and launched the symbol 5.0 operating system. In 2000, Ericsson, the world's first Symbian operating system, was officially launched. Since then, the Symbian system once occupied 70% of the market. During this period, the competitors of smartphones were still feature phones, and the main selling point was the shape of the product and the additional basic functions.
. From 2010 to the present, mobile phones have transformed from feature phones to smart terminals, and the Android system quickly occupied the market
). Promoted from high-end products, and then relying on scale costs to lead the mid-to-low-end market upgrade
2007, Apple launched the first generation of Iphone, which in a sense changed the positioning of the mobile phone. Iphone(1) uses a capacitive screen to cancel physical buttons, greatly simplifying the appearance design of the phone. (2) Strengthened mobile phone applications and networking functions.
At the same time, in 2007, Google and device companies such as HTC, Motorola, Samsung, , Qualcomm, , etc. announced the establishment of an open mobile phone alliance, aiming to develop an open and comprehensive mobile device platform. Since 2010, Andriod has risen at an astonishing speed, quickly occupying the smartphone market and driving the development of the entire smartphone industry. The Symbian system was abandoned by manufacturers because of its closed system.
). Mobile phones gradually evolved from functional devices to smart mobile terminals
. New demand changes have greatly promoted industry changes. Since Google entered the mobile field, mobile phones have changed from a call entertainment tool to an important smart terminal in the Internet era, carrying the important task of receiving various content services. Therefore, in the process of mobile phone evolution, while the mobile phone has rich functions, the unit price has entered an upward channel.
(III) The added value of electric vehicles
. After the subsidy is withdrawn, it is expected to achieve sales parity
). Car purchase cost: The PACK of lithium batteries has dropped to 0.75 yuan/wh, which can achieve parity sales of electric vehicles
0 The cost of electric vehicles mainly comes from lithium batteries. We assume that pack costs can drop to 0.75 yuan/wh in 2021. The battery cost of 42~75kwh with a charge range of 34,000 to 60,000 yuan. While ensuring profits from the OEM, the price of EVs above Level B and the sales of fuel vehicles are parity-based, with a gross profit margin of between 10% and 20%.
) Car use cost: Electric vehicles save 10,000 yuan per year compared to fuel vehicles.
The cost of using electric vehicles is much lower than that of fuel vehicles. Let's take the Roewe RX5 as an example. (1) Electric vehicles do not require purchase tax, which can reduce the purchase cost by about 10,000 yuan. (2) Electric vehicles do not have to pay vehicle and ship fees every year. (3) Fuel use: We assume that the mileage in one year is 20,000 km. The fuel consumption of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of Roewe RX5 is 8.5L/100km. Based on this calculation, the fuel cost is 10,500 yuan. Assuming that the power consumption of ERX5 is 15kwh/km, the annual electricity bill is 01,800 yuan. (4) Maintenance: The maintenance of the electric version mainly involves checking the battery and motor, with a one-year holding fee of 500 yuan. Because fuel vehicles need to maintain the fuel supply and lubrication system, the annual maintenance fee is about 1,500 to 2,000 yuan. Total, the cost of electric vehicles is 10,000 yuan lower than that of fuel vehicles per year.
. Power and NVH are important highlights of new energy
Internal combustion engine has been developed for a century, and its performance has reached the extreme, and the marginal cost of improving efficiency is high. Electric vehicles are driven by motors. Compared with internal combustion engines, the motor power output is linear and smooth, and the NVH performance is significantly better than that of internal combustion engines.
New energy low energy consumption and high performance have indeed touched a small number of markets. Take BYD Tang DM as an example. Although the price reaches 260,000 to 300,000 yuan, nearly 100,000 yuan higher than the same fuel car, and the price is equivalent to the price of the same level of joint venture brands. Currently, the monthly sales of the plug-in hybrid version remains at the level of 6,000 vehicles, and more than half of the owners come from non-licensed cities.
. The combination of electric vehicles and intelligent networking, or the next mobile terminal
). The innate service attribute orientation of electric vehicles
. The structural differences between electric vehicles are compared with traditional cars, resulting in a huge change in the iteration model of the product. The average replacement cycle of traditional cars is 5 to 7 years, and traditional OEMs focus on product updates on power, chassis, body and interior and exterior. From the perspective of the structure of electric vehicles, in addition to the traditional basic elements of the vehicle body and chassis, the core changes lie in the batteries, sensors, software and services. The period of their iteration is shortened from left to right. (1) Take the battery as an example, its iteration cycle is about 2 years. Electric vehicles can launch battery swap solutions to solve the problem of battery upgrades. (2) The vehicle's software and service iteration cycle is 3 to 6 months, or even shorter.
).5G Accelerate the deployment and greatly promote the development of intelligent automotive networking
my country 5G will officially enter the commercial stage from 2020. In March 2017, 5G was written into the government work report as an emerging industry for the first time; in March 2018, the State Council proposed the strategy of building a strong manufacturing country, and 5G was written into the government work report as an important part of the strategy of building a strong manufacturing country; at the end of 2018 and early 2019, many local governments successively issued the 2019 work report, and 5G became the focus of it. In January this year, Minister Miao said that he would issue temporary 5G licenses in 2019, which would be the first to be implemented in several cities and hot spots; he also emphasized that 5G will accelerate the construction of application. The issuance of temporary licenses is expected to further ripen the industrial chain and speed up the industry process.
5G has significantly improved its latency, peak value and mobility compared with 4G. In terms of delay, the delay time of 5G is greatly reduced, which has a great impact on many real-time applications, such as games, video and data phones, autonomous driving, etc. The maximum number of connections per square kilometer of 5G is also 100 times that of 4G, and the maximum movement speed supported is 1.5 times.
5G will promote the application of Internet of Vehicles. 5G's large bandwidth, mobile edge computing, and edge cloud collaboration technology can meet the strict requirements of the Internet of Vehicles in terms of high-speed transmission, high reliability, low latency, etc.
According to the "China Intelligent Connected Vehicle Development Route", my country's intelligent connected products from 2016 to 2030 are divided into three steps. (1) Starting period: 2016-2020. Focusing on establishing an industry and research system, the assembly rate of new cars for target cars with DA, PA, and CA has reached 50%, and the assembly rate of connected assisted driving has reached 10%. (2) Development period: 2021-2025. Basically build an independent intelligent connected vehicle industry chain and an intelligent transportation system. The assembly rate of new cars for target cars: DA, PA, and CA new cars will reach 80%, and autonomous driving will begin to enter the market (3) Maturity period: 2026-2030. Establish a complete independent intelligent connected industrial chain and intelligent transportation system, with the automobile network rate close to 100%, and the automatic driving assembly rate reaches 10%.
We believe that with the increase in 5G penetration rate. (1) The radius of residents may be expanded. (2) The vehicle networking capacity has increased significantly.
. Improvement of car use experience: policy promotes charging pile coverage
Electric vehicles have also been continuously improved and optimized in charging and battery life. As of December 2018, my country's public charging piles reached 331,000 and private charging piles reached 477,000.
The government strengthened industrial support for charging infrastructure. The 2019 subsidy policy pointed out that local subsidy funds for new energy shifted to charging facility subsidies. The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap" released at the end of 2017 further clarified that in 2020, more than 12,000 charging and swapping stations and more than 5 million AC and DC charging piles will be built nationwide.
3. Ideas for high-end development of new energy vehicles in domestic OEMs
(I) SAIC Group : The new four-in-one benchmark for electric + intelligent networking
SAIC started to develop new energy in 2007, and can be divided into three stages so far.
(1) From 2007 to 2012, this period was the company's technical accumulation. In 2012, the company launched its first pure electric E50.
(2)2012~2017, oil-to-electricity period. Based on the existing traditional cars, the company has launched oil-to-electric models, including ER5, Ei6, etc.
(3)2018~To date, the promotion of new energy has entered the third stage. Based on the previous new energy research and development, a new pure electric architecture was launched to create a new species, Marvel X intelligent connected car.
SAIC Group has planned more than 30 new energy products, including 13 pure electric vehicles and 17 plug-in hybrid vehicles. It is estimated that by 2020, SAIC's independent brand new energy vehicles will sales reach 200,000. In terms of batteries, SAIC and Ningde Times jointly established the Liyang factory, and the first phase of production capacity will be put into production in mid-2019.
In addition, the company has also accelerated the promotion of intelligent networking. We are continuing to increase the independent development of key intelligent driving systems such as perception, planning, decision-making, and execution, and deepen cross-border cooperation with famous domestic and foreign companies such as Alibaba, Wuhan Guangting, Mobileye, and TTTech. We also signed strategic cooperation agreements with the Ministry of Public Security Institute of Communications, China Mobile, Huawei , etc. to jointly carry out technical research and standard system construction in the field of forward-looking intelligent networking such as 5G.
(II)Gely Automobile: electric platform, looking forward to the launch of PMA models
Gely proposed the "Blue Geely Action Strategy" in 2015, with the goal of Geely New Energy's sales by 2020 account for more than 90% of the overall. Among them, plug-in hybrid and oil-electric hybrid reached 65%, and pure electric accounted for 35%. The company released the technology brand iNETC in May 2018 and introduced the PMA pure electric platform for the first time. In the future, Geely and Lynk & Co will launch new models based on the PMA platform, with a total of more than 10 models.
(III)BYD : The scale driver of industrial chain integration
BYD was founded in February 1995, starting from the secondary rechargeable battery manufacturing business, and then entered the automotive field through the acquisition of Qinchuan Bus. The company has always regarded new energy as the strategic direction of the industry. After experiencing a trough period, the company introduced the new "Dragon Face" styling and interior design. It began to enter the new model product cycle in the second half of 2018, and the "Dynasty" series launched a number of new models. In terms of
product layout, the company has added a "e-net" sales network, which will form two sales networks, e-net and Dynasty.BYD E-net mainly faces second- and third-tier cities, focusing on cost performance and cost advantages. E.com's future sales products cover multiple fields such as mini cars, small cars, compact cars, compact cars, small SUVs, etc., including e1, e2, e3, S2, and S3, and continues to expand its product segmentation market. The company's goal is to achieve new energy sales of 400,000 to 450,000 vehicles in 2019. In terms of
production capacity, the company is currently building a 10GWh phase of Qinghai base, and the second phase will reach 16GWh. The Xi'an base is planned to be put into production for 30GWh, and the first phase of 10GWh is expected to reach full production by the end of 2019. The company's current production capacity is 30GWh, and it is expected to reach 45GWh by the end of 2019. In addition, the company has also jointly established a 10GWh new energy production capacity with Changan. It is expected that the company's theoretical shipment of lithium batteries in 2019 can reach 30GWh, which is enough to support the company's new energy sales target of 400,000 to 450,000 vehicles this year.
(IV)Tesla : Automotive electrification + autonomous driving
. Tesla's development history
Tesla was founded in 2003 and was co-founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. The company is headquartered in Silicon Valley, USA. Elon Musk joined the company in February 2004 after a Series A financing and became the chairman of Tesla’s board of directors. Then, Elon Musk has always been Tesla's soul. In 2010, the company was listed on Nasdaq and became the only pure electric vehicle manufacturer to be listed in the United States at that time.
adopts a top-down product strategy and has successively launched Roadstar, model S, model X, model 3 and other models to the market, and hopes to accelerate the popularization of electrification by continuously reducing costs.
. Adhere to the industrial chain integration strategy of independent research and development
Company insists on independent research and development in electric intelligent driving. (1) Three-electric system: The company and Panasonic jointly build a factory to produce batteries. BMS, motors and electronic controls are developed and produced by themselves. (2) The company's unmanned driving system software part has been fully developed independently, and has independently developed FSD computing chips and invested in the production of some sensors.
. The autonomous driving market performed outstandingly
Elon Musk combined with Silicon Valley's software and electronic technology to open a precedent for smart electric power. In terms of business strategy, Tesla provides each car with smart hardware and later activates software to realize Auto-Pilot autonomous driving function. In addition, the company upgraded the in-car software and intelligent driving systems through OTA.
(V) NIO: Automobile Electric + Automobile Intelligence + Vehicle Usage Service
. The new car-making force of the Internet gene
company was formerly NextCar. It was established in November 2014. It was jointly initiated and founded by Li Bin , Liu Qiangdong, Li Xiang, Tencent, etc., and has been invested by dozens of well-known institutions such as Temasek, Baidu Capital, Sequoia, and Houpu. It was renamed NIO Inc in 2017 and was launched in the United States in September 2018.
Company introduced the VIE company structure in April 2018, and NIO Nextev Ltd established a wholly foreign-owned enterprise in China, and signed a VIE agreement with Shanghai Anbin Technology Co., Ltd. and Beijing NIO Network Technology Co., Ltd. to conduct business in China. Currently, the company's shareholders holding more than 5% of the shares are Li Bin (14.4%), Tencent (13.3%), Baillie Gifford (7.5%) and Hillhouse Capital (6.2%), with a total holding of 39.9%.
. Combination of "online + offline" reshapes user experience
In order to reduce management costs, traditional manufacturers adopt the separation of production and sales, complete sales and service work through 4S stores, and minimize direct contact with customers. In this mode, the communication between the manufacturer and the user is separated, making it difficult for manufacturers to grasp user information and have fewer active interactions.
NIO breaks the existing separation model of automobile production and sales, and provides continuous user services by deconstructing user contacts. Specific measures: (1) Adopt direct production and direct sales model to establish offline Nio house (2) Maintain communication with users through the online NIO App community. (3) Establish a fast-responsive after-sales service system (4) Establish an energy service system to solve the problem of electric vehicles replenishment.
Nio house offline direct sales model
Nio house is a sales outlet of NIO. Usually, the nio house has two floors. The first floor is mainly for vehicle display, and the second floor provides free space for NIO owners and friends, and provides functions such as rest areas, catering, meetings, and parent-child.Currently, the company has established 14 nio houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, , Suzhou and other regions, and is expected to increase to 20 this year, and in the long run, it is planned to increase to 70.
NIO App Online Community Enhances Customer Interaction
Company Gravity Creates APP Online Community, maintains customer groups, and increases customer communication and product stickiness. NIO App currently has 4 columns "Discover", "Friends", "Love Cars", and "Surprise Mall", and a "complex" with the attributes of service + social + media + mall.
After-sales service-Nio Service
Company vehicles enjoy free lifelong warranty, regular maintenance, and free lifelong road assistance. In addition, the company has also launched a service package user worry-free service package, which charges 14,800 yuan per year, providing car owners with services including insurance, parking, designated driving, etc. Among them, the one-click call service vehicle can provide on-site operations including tire services and full-vehicle inspection, including part installation, simple maintenance and other door-to-door services. According to the company's exchange feedback, 90% of customers currently choose service packages.
has two authorized third-party service systems and Nio service systems to jointly provide car owners with repair, maintenance, bodywork and other services. Nio Services is operated by the company itself and currently has 13 outlets in 11 cities. For authorized third-party service centers, the company has a dedicated network team responsible for management. As of April 2019, the company has opened 104 service centers nationwide.
Triple-in-one energy service network
Company provides three ways to recharge electricity: charging piles, battery swap stations, and charging cars. In addition, the company also provides pioneering solutions for battery rental and upgrades based on the battery swap model to solve consumers' mileage anxiety and concerns about battery performance attenuation. The company efficiently manages the energy service network through cloud computing platforms. On April 16, 2019, the company announced that the energy service network was officially opened to the public, which is expected to greatly improve the overall service efficiency.
4. The supply has increased, and the real demand for new energy is expected to open from the high-end market.
. my country's new energy volume is high and the quality is low, and personal demand is initially started
The development of my country's new energy is promoted from the operation market of public transportation and travel. Personal consumption is mainly concentrated in limited-trade cities, and the base of real demand is small. We split the 2018 data. In 2018, the number of pure electric vehicles covered by insurance reached 707,000. Among non-traffic cities, 458,000 were sold pure electric vehicles, but individuals who are not A00 purchased 130,000.
. The car change cycle is expected to accelerate the penetration of new energy
Our car sales volume was between 2010 and 2012, 2013 and 2015, 2016 and 2018. Every 3 years, the growth cycle of automobile sales showed a step-by-step increase. This wave of gradually entering the car change cycle. According to our grassroots research, there is no additional requirement for battery life for owners who choose electric vehicles spontaneously, and the probability of choosing an electric vehicle for the next car is very high.
. The supply of high-end models is increasing, which is expected to stimulate the real demand for new energy
0 The urgent need for high-end cars in restricted cities is expected to be released. At present, the main cities in my country's traffic restrictions are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Tianjin. From 2017 to 2018, the sales volumes of new energy restricted cities were 234,000 and 382,000 vehicles respectively. Because of the lack of high-end new energy supply, the accumulated potential demand in the market is expected to be released.
Currently, the high-end new energy vehicle models with more than 200,000 yuan in the market include a small number of models such as Tesla, NIO, and BYD Tang. In 2017, my country consumed about 3.5 million vehicles with a total of more than 200,000 yuan, and the growth rate exceeded that of the industry. Assuming that the penetration rate of new energy reaches 20%, then my country's new energy demand for 800,000 new energy vehicles is employed.
. Summary: We believe that new consumer demand is the core of triggering industrial transformation
(1) New energy has advantages in multiple dimensions such as performance and user experience than traditional cars. With the advancement of battery technology, the shortcomings in new energy costs are also improving rapidly. (2) New energy is inherently of service carrier attributes. With the help of 5G, the combination of new energy and the Internet of Vehicles is expected to give birth to new business formats and models.(3) The demonstration role of high-end models such as Tesla is expected to drive the popularization of overall new energy from high to low. We recommend companies with new energy advantages, BYD, SAIC, Geely, and GAC. Recommended CATL core supplier of new energy batteries.
5. Lithium batteries and materials benefit from the trend of high-end new energy vehicles, and the industry structure further concentrated towards the leader
(I) Power batteries: The proportion of high-end new energy passenger cars has increased, driving the pattern of high-end power batteries to the top
. The sales share of high-end new energy passenger cars continues to increase
1) Among pure electric passenger cars, the proportion of A-class cars has increased from only 10% in 2015 to 51%, and the trend of high-end is significant. According to statistics from the China Passenger Car Association, in the first quarter of 2019, 199,900 pure electric passenger cars were sold, an increase of 151% year-on-year, accounting for 79%. Among them, the sales of A00-class cars were 57,700, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and the proportion dropped from 49% in 2018 last year to 29%. Sales volumes of A0 and A-class cars were 35,500 and 102,500 respectively, an explosion of 563% and 640% year-on-year. The proportion of A0 and A-class cars was 18% and 51% respectively, and have occupied the main market share. C-class cars also continued to grow rapidly, with sales of 3,900 vehicles in the first quarter, accounting for 2%.
2) The total proportion of B and C-class cars among plug-in hybrid passenger cars has increased to nearly 50%. In the first quarter of 2019, 53,000 plug-in hybrid passenger cars were sold, an increase of 42% year-on-year, of which the proportion of high-end models also increased rapidly. The sales of A-class plug-in hybrid passenger cars were 27,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, the sales of B-class cars were 23,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 952%. The sales of C-class cars were only 3 units in 2017, reaching 16,100 units in 2018, and 2,900 units in the first quarter of this year. Class A, B and C-class cars account for 51%, 44%, and 6% of plug-in hybrids, respectively, and Class B and C-class cars account for nearly 50%. Last year, Class B and Class C accounted for only 30%, and the proportion of high-end models increased significantly.
. The range of new energy vehicles continues to grow, and the energy density of power batteries has steadily increased
2019 subsidy policy has been adjusted, the threshold has been further raised, and the continued tilt towards high range. The mileage classification of the new subsidy policy has changed from 5 stages in 2018 to 250≤R400km and R≥400km. The range of subsidy amount R≥400km dropped from 50,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan, and 300≤R400km dropped from 45,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan. The minimum battery life range of 150≤R200km will no longer be subsidized.
From the analysis of the new energy vehicle promotion catalog, the mileage range of passenger cars and passenger cars has been greatly improved. From the fifth batch in 2018 to the third batch of this year after the subsidy policy adjustment, it can be seen that the cruising range of passenger cars and passenger cars has been increasing month-on-month. Among the 42 pure electric passenger cars in the third batch of this year, there are only 3 models with a range of 250-300 kilometers, and 12 models with a range of 300-350 kilometers, accounting for 29%, and the number of models with a range of 350 kilometers has reached 27, accounting for 64%. Among the 69 new energy bus models, only 9 models have a range of 200-300 kilometers, 14 models have between 300 and 350 kilometers, and 46 models have a range of more than 350 kilometers, accounting for 66.7%.
2019 New subsidy policy increases the energy density requirements. The 2018 subsidy standard divides the energy density into gradients of 105, 120, 140, and 160wh/kg, and gives additional rewards to models with high energy density. In 2019, the requirements for energy density were increased. Subsidies for batteries below 125wh/kg were cancelled, and the energy density coefficient of the remaining levels was reduced by 0.2. An energy density of 160wh/kg becomes a standard requirement.
The average energy density of new energy passenger cars has reached 148.7Wh/kg, and the number of models above 160Wh/kg continues to grow. Among the 42 pure electric passenger cars in the third batch of 2019, the energy density of 23 models is in the range of 140~160Wh/kg, accounting for 55%. 16 models have reached more than 160wh/kg, accounting for 38%. The median energy density of the third batch of passenger cars is 144.7Wh/kg, and the average is 148.7Wh/kg. The median and mean values of the energy density of the third batch of new energy buses were 141.8wh/kg and 146.9Wh/kg, respectively, which were significantly higher than the previous batches. We expect the energy density of new energy vehicles to increase steadily this year, and passenger cars are expected to increase significantly compared with passenger cars.
. The trend of power battery industry structure to the leading market is becoming increasingly significant
2019 Q1 ternary battery installed capacity was 8.71GWh, accounting for 71%, and the installed capacity share of lithium iron phosphate batteries continued to decline. Benefiting from the increase in the proportion of passenger cars, the installed capacity of ternary batteries in the first quarter of this year reached 8.71GWh, a year-on-year increase of 207%, accounting for 71%, an increase of 17% from 54% in 2018. The installed capacity of iron phosphate lithium batteries was 2.75GWh, an increase of 89% year-on-year, accounting for 22%, a decrease of 16% from 38% in 2018. By car model, the 2019Q1 pure electric passenger cars mainly have ternary batteries, accounting for 90%, and almost 100% of plug-in hybrid passenger cars use ternary batteries.
The proportion of ternary batteries in the passenger car field has increased, and high-end models are expected to mainly use ternary batteries. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, in the first quarter of 2019, of the installed battery of pure electric passenger car cars, the installed battery of ternary batteries was 8.38GWh, accounting for 87% in 2018 to 93%. Among plug-in hybrid passenger cars, ternary batteries account for 97%. We expect that in terms of the long-term trend, as the proportion of high-end passenger cars continues to increase, the installed capacity and share of high-end ternary batteries will continue to grow.
CATL and BYD's share in the ternary battery field is growing, and their leading position continues to consolidate. In the first quarter of 2019, CATL and BYD installed share in the ternary battery sector reached 47% and 31%, respectively, an increase of 7 and 11 percentage points year-on-year, significantly leading other battery manufacturers in the industry.
CATL's share in mainstream car companies continues to increase. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, in 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, the proportion of supporting power batteries of CATL, including , BAIC New Energy , Geely, JAC, SAIC and Changan Automobile, which ranked among the top sales of domestic new energy vehicles, increased significantly. As the proportion of high-end models continues to increase, it is expected that CATL's market share will continue to increase with the supporting key models.
CATL's market share increased from 29% in 2017 to 44.6% in Q1 2019, and the power battery industry structure is becoming increasingly clear. According to statistics from Gaogong Lithium Battery, the top ten power battery companies in the first quarter of 2019 ranked a total of about 11.21GWh, accounting for 91% of the total, an increase of 8% from 2018, and the market concentration continued to increase. CATL ranked first with an installed power of 5.49GWh, with a market share of 44.6%; BYD installed power of 3.53GWh, with a market share of 28.7%; the third to seventh place are Guoxuan Hi-Tech (495MWh), Funeng Technology (390MWh), Bick Battery (259MWh), Lishen (253MWh), and Yiwei Lithium Energy (230MWh).
. Under the background of the trend of high-end, seizing the three types of investment opportunities in the power battery industry
The improvement of battery performance will promote the continuous reduction of battery costs and the improvement of safety. This is also the most important way to achieve the upgrading of the consumption experience of new energy vehicles, and will drive the production and manufacturing of batteries toward high-end. Against the backdrop of the trend of high-end power batteries, the industry has now formed a lot of strong competitive landscapes. We believe that the development of the power battery industry reflects a total of three types of investment opportunities:
) The industry giant represented by CATL
CATL 0CATL has established joint ventures with many mainstream car companies and is the main supplier, and has good cooperation with new car manufacturers. CATL's power batteries have entered the supply system of most mainstream car companies. In terms of domestic brand vehicle manufacturers, the company has maintained long-term strategic cooperation with leading vehicle manufacturers in industries such as SAIC, Geely, Yutong , BAIC, GAC, Dongfeng and Changan, and has established joint ventures with SAIC, GAC, Geely, etc. In terms of international brand vehicle manufacturers, the company further deepens its cooperation with international brands such as BMW, Daimler, Hyundai, Jaguar Land Rover , Peugeot Citroen, Volkswagen and Volvo, and will become an important strategic partner of mainstream car companies around the world. In addition, the company has cooperated with new car-making forces such as NIO, WM Motor, and Xiaopeng to actively deploy smart cars.
CATL's R&D investment has reached nearly 2 billion yuan, and power batteries have expanded significantly. Since CATL's investment in R&D of power batteries exceeded 1 billion in 2016, R&D investment in 2018 reached 1.91 billion yuan, which will surpass the 2 billion mark.As of the end of 2018, CATL's R&D personnel reached 4,217, accounting for 16.95% of the total number of employees, significantly leading the peers in R&D. The company also continues to accelerate the construction of production lines. In 2018, it invested a total of 2.059 billion yuan in Hudong Park, Jiangsu Liyang Park and Times SAIC Liyang Park. It will continue to increase investment this year. CATL's power battery capacity scale is leading in the industry.
CATL has good cash flow capabilities in the industry, reflecting its product scarcity. Due to the impact of delay in issuing subsidies in the new energy vehicle industry, there is great pressure on the cash flow from the whole vehicle to the power batteries and materials. Due to the good quality of its batteries, CATL's products are in short supply. The net cash flow generated by its operating activities in 2018 was as high as 11.316 billion yuan, a significant increase of 362% year-on-year. The operating cash flow in the first quarter of this year also reached 4.977 billion yuan. As of the end of the first quarter of 2019, CATL's advance payment was 5.405 billion yuan. In order to lock in the supply of high-quality batteries, some auto companies paid part of the payment in advance, fully reflecting CATL's product scarcity and industry leading position.
) A fast-growing enterprise that focuses on breakthroughs in mainstream customers
Biwei Lithium Energy: High-end soft-pack batteries enter Daimler and Hyundai Kia supply chains to create a full category supplier of lithium batteries. Yiwei Lithium Energy was established in 2001. By 2009, it had become the number one domestic and had a market share of 39%, and it is the top five lithium sub-battery supplier in the world. In 2015, the company launched its power battery business. At present, square and cylindrical batteries have been equipped with many car companies, laying a good foundation for soft-pack batteries in many aspects such as power battery raw material supply chain management, equipment supply chain management, production quality system, and customer product certification system. In 2015, the company launched a power battery business and has now built a 9GWh production capacity, including 2.5GWh lithium iron phosphate battery, 3.5GWh cylindrical ternary battery, 1.5GWh soft-pack battery and 1.5GWh square ternary battery. The company's lithium iron phosphate batteries are supplied by Nanjing Jinlong, Yutong, Geely, etc., and the soft-pack batteries are positioned at high-end. They signed a contract with Daimler last year. They have started supplying in the first quarter of this year and will be supplied in large quantities from the second quarter. In March this year, they received a notice from Hyundai Kia supplier selection, and soft-pack batteries will explode in growth this year and next year. Currently, the company's 1.5GWh capacity under construction is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. In March, the company's second phase project, the 6GWh capacity will start and is expected to be put into production in June next year. We expect the company's soft-pack batteries to continue to grow high in the next three years, and will further enhance the company's power battery products through cooperation with mainstream international car companies, which will help the company expand its customers.
Xinwangda: The leading digital lithium battery company has entered the power battery business, and mainstream car companies and customers continue to make breakthroughs. Xinwangda is the leading digital lithium battery in China and is one of the first domestic companies engaged in the production of lithium-ion battery modules. The company has first deployed the mobile phone and laptop battery market in the field of lithium batteries, and has now entered the supply chain system of many global leading enterprises such as Consumer Electronics A customer, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, VIVO, etc. At present, the company's lithium battery products are widely used in mobile phones, laptops, VR, wearable devices, electric vehicles, power tools, electric bicycles, energy Internet and energy storage fields. The company has been working in the field of power batteries for many years, expanding from battery PACK to battery cells, and its products have been recognized by well-known domestic and foreign customers. In April this year, the announcement received a designated notice for Renault Nissan electric vehicle system and entered the world's first-tier vehicle companies. The demand for related models is expected to reach 1.157 million units in the next seven years (2020-2026). The company is also actively promoting mainstream domestic vehicle manufacturers such as Geely, Great Wall , Changan, etc. The company's current power battery capacity is 2GWh, and the new 2GWh capacity is put into production this year. It is expected that the annual effective capacity will reach 3GWh. The company's market share in the consumer lithium battery field is constantly increasing, and the power battery business is expected to turn losses into profits this year. It is recommended to pay attention.
) Investment opportunities brought by the upgrading of lithium iron phosphate battery technology
lithium iron phosphate battery energy density continues to increase, and most of the supporting passenger models have reached more than 140wh/kg.According to the model analysis of the new energy vehicle promotion catalog, before the 7th batch of promotion catalog in 2018, the energy density of passenger car battery systems equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries was still mostly in the range of 120wh/kg to 140wh/kg, and the average energy density was below 130wh/kg. Starting from the 9th batch of promotion catalog last year, with the technological advancement of lithium iron phosphate batteries, most of the supporting passenger models have reached more than 140wh/kg, and the range is mostly above 300 kilometers.
New energy vehicle subsidies have been significantly reduced, and manufacturers such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech use lithium iron phosphate batteries to support passenger cars with outstanding economic advantages. Against the backdrop of the imminent decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, some car companies choose lithium iron phosphate batteries for passenger cars to reduce costs. In the second batch of new energy vehicle promotion catalog this year, 8 of the 29 pure electric passenger cars are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries. Guoxuan Hi-Tech has two models for JAC Auto (JAC has another 4 models with JAC Huating battery PACK, and the battery cells are expected to be provided by Guoxuan), and 1 model for Chery . Guoxuan Hi-Tech currently mass-produces lithium iron phosphate cylindrical battery cells with energy density of 180Wh/kg, and can be equipped with a range of more than 400km. The models with international leading positions are the new 190Wh/kg cylindrical battery cells. The newly developed cylindrical battery cells product will also be mass-produced this year. Guoxuan Hi-Tech has long-term and good cooperation with BAIC New Energy, JAC and Chery. It is expected that Guoxuan's lithium iron phosphate batteries will make a major breakthrough in the passenger car field this year.
(II) Electrolyte: The price trend is upward, the requirements for high-nickel batteries are increasing, and the leading electrolyte is strong, the price of electrolytes is always strong
Domestic electrolytes has stabilized and rebounded, entering an upward cycle. The price of domestic electrolyte reached a low point in early 2015, and then the price continued to rise as the upstream lithium hexafluorophosphate rose. Since 2017, the price of electrolytes has continued to decline. In 2018, the industry launched a fierce price war, and the gross profit margins of electrolyte companies have declined significantly. Since the third quarter of last year, industry competition has slowed down, and electrolytes have experienced price increases with changes in supply and demand. Currently, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte are in a steady upward cycle, and the profitability of the industry is expected to gradually recover.
electrolyte industry has a stable structure, with CR3 accounting for about 54%. The electrolyte industry structure is becoming increasingly clear. The top three industry leaders, Tianci Materials, Xinzhoubang and Jiangsu Cathay Pacific shipments in 2018 were 35,700, 22,000 and 18,000 tons, respectively, with market shares of 25.5%, 15.7% and 12.9%. The industry's CR5 market share is 54%, the CR5 share is 68%, and the CR10 market share reaches 83.6%, and the industry concentration is gradually concentrated in leading companies.
high-nickel ternary battery penetration rate has grown rapidly, formulas and additives have built core competitive advantages, and leading enterprises have enhanced the industry's competitive barriers. The electrolyte is prepared in a certain proportion of high-purity organic solvents, electrolytes, additives and other materials. The difference in formulas determines the performance of the product to a large extent. High-nickel ternary batteries have higher requirements for the performance of electrolytes, which tests the electrolyte company's formula research and development capabilities and additive supporting capabilities. Electrolyte additives refer to a small amount of non-energy storage materials used in chemical power supplies. They are characterized by strong targetedness and small usage. They can significantly improve certain macroscopic performance of the battery without increasing or basically increasing production costs and changing the production process without changing the production process. Although the amount of electrolyte additives is not large, accounting for only about 10% of the cost of the electrolyte, its role is very important. Commonly used additives currently include film forming additives, flame retardant additives, conductive additives and multifunctional additives.
(III) Negative electrode materials: The industry's demand for high-end products has increased, which is beneficial to the expansion of the share of leading enterprises
. The negative electrode industry structure is stable, and the proportion of high-end negative electrode materials has gradually increased
Currently, the top 4 domestic negative electrode materials account for more than 70% of the share, except for Betre, they are mainly artificial graphite. According to statistics from Gaogong Lithium Battery, the domestic negative electrode material shipments in 2018 were 192,000 tons, an increase of 29.7% year-on-year. Among them, the shipment of artificial graphite was 133,000 tons, an increase of 32.74% year-on-year, accounting for 69%; the shipment of natural stone ink was 45,800 tons, an increase of 19% year-on-year, accounting for 24%.The top four negative electrode materials shipped last year were Betre (4.3 tons), Shanshan Co., Ltd. (3.45 tons), Putailai (3.25 tons), and Dongguan Kaijin (2.63 tons). The total market share of CR4 reached 71%. Except Betre mainly natural graphite, the other three companies mainly produce artificial graphite.
negative electrode material plays an important role in battery charging and discharging performance, cycle life, energy density, etc., and the proportion of high-end artificial graphite negative electrodes is expected to continue to increase. More ideal negative electrode materials usually have the following conditions: low chemical potential, a large potential difference with the positive electrode material, thereby obtaining a high-power battery; high cycling capacity; relatively stable charge and discharge voltage; good electronic conductivity and ionic conductivity; good stability, and have certain compatibility with electrolytes. At present, negative electrode materials can be mainly divided into carbon-based materials and non-carbon-based materials. Among carbon-based materials, graphite carbon anode materials have the advantages of high electronic conductivity, large lithium ion diffusion coefficient, high lithium embedded capacity and low lithium embedded potential. They also have a wide source of graphite materials and are cheap, so they are the mainstream negative electrode materials in the industry. Since artificial graphite has better reliability and safety than natural graphite, its share will continue to increase. As power batteries have increased their requirements for energy density, charge and discharge performance, cycle life, etc., it is expected that the proportion of high-end negative electrode materials will also gradually increase.
silicon carbon negative electrode material has a higher specific capacity, and the increase in battery energy density promotes the gradual increase in the silicon carbon negative electrode. Compared with traditional graphite negative electrodes, the theoretical capacity of silicon materials can reach 4200mAh/g. However, the volume expansion of silicon and electron conductivity are poor. The adverse effects of these two can be greatly alleviated through the recombination of silicon and carbon, and the energy density higher than that of graphite negative electrodes can be obtained. After nearly 10 years of research and development in the domestic market, silicon-based negative electrode technology has been continuously matured, and product stability has gradually been verified by downstream battery companies. It has been used in cylindrical digital, a small amount of soft-pack digital and cylindrical power. In 2018, my country's silicon-based anode materials output reached 5,440 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3 times. Silicon-based anode materials are about to enter a period of batch volume expansion, and companies that have earlier layout in the silicon-carbon anode field are expected to seize the initiative.
. Negative electrode enterprises build graphitization capacity to reduce costs, which will promote the industrial promotion of high-end products
Negative electrode materials high-end products have high technical barriers, and there is a big gap in prices and profit levels of high-end and low-end products. Due to the large technical differences between different types of negative electrode materials, the prices range from 20,000 to 90,000 at the lowest end. In the past year, the overall price reduction of negative electrode materials throughout the year was not obvious, and the average price of graphite negative electrodes was between 40,000 and 80,000 yuan/ton.
processing costs account for more than 50% of the negative electrode material costs. We have compiled the cost composition of the negative electrode material from Putailai from 2016 to 2018. In 2018, the average cost of its negative electrode material was 44,700 yuan, of which the processing fee was 22,900 yuan, a slight increase of 1.8% year-on-year, accounting for 51.24% of the total cost, a decrease of 8 percentage points. The amount of processing fees is basically the same, and the decline in the proportion of costs is mainly due to the increase in raw materials such as needle coke last year, and the proportion of direct materials costs increased from 32% to 41%.
negative electrode manufacturers build their own graphitization production capacity, and the reduction in costs is expected to accelerate the industrial promotion of high-end products. Since graphitization accounts for a large proportion of processing costs for negative electrode materials companies, mainstream domestic anode companies have begun to invest in graphitization production capacity in the past two years. The main cost of graphitization comes from electricity bills. Usually, the average graphitization capacity per ton is about 15,000 kWh. Therefore, companies such as Putailai, Shanshan, Betre, and Kaijin have successively built their own graphitization production lines in Inner Mongolia, where electricity prices are relatively cheap. Considering that Inner Mongolia is 0.2-0.3 yuan lower than the eastern region of industrial electricity prices, we expect that the negative electrode manufacturers can save 3,000-4,500 yuan per ton after the production of graphitization capacity of Inner Mongolia. Considering that the self-built manufacturers of negative electrode enterprises can obtain profits from previous external graphitization suppliers, we expect that the cost per ton can be saved by about 6,000-7,000 yuan per ton. Self-built graphitization production capacity can improve the profitability of negative electrode companies. With the large-scale production of graphitization production capacity in the industry and the decline in negative electrode materials prices, it is expected to be conducive to the industrial promotion of high-end products.
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(Report source: Huarong Securities; analysts: Hu Yi, Yu Xiao, Wang Junjie)
