htmlOn December 20, Foreign Policy magazine visited 12 as a world-renowned thinker and published a survey article "What will the world be like after the COVID-19 pandemic? 》 (Pictures are from the official website of Foreign Policy magazine) html On April 3, Joseph Nye published an article in the National Interest magazine "Why does the new coronavirus make Sino-US relations worse? 》 (Picture source from the official website of the National Interest Magazine) Joseph Nye: If China does not cooperate with China to fight the epidemic, the United States will lose its national security strategy
Before the new coronavirus appeared in January, Sino-US relations were in trouble. Nowadays, the coronavirus crisis has made relations worse and worse, which is a test for leaders of both sides.
Trump's political desolation and people's ills contrast the good governance and good governance of China in fighting the epidemic
The new coronavirus epidemic not only shows China's good governance, but also shows its improvement and improvement. Initially, the epidemic spread around the world for various reasons. Wuhan has taken the strictest epidemic prevention measures to curb the spread of the epidemic. Afterwards, the Chinese government carried out propaganda to fight the epidemic, and the fight against the epidemic demonstrated its good governance and good governance. The political disgrace and civilian ills shown by the Trump administration in this crisis contrasts China's advantages. After disbanding the National Security Council (NSC) agency responsible for global epidemic diseases, cutting the World Health Organization's dues budget, and limiting the eye-catching information sharing system between China and the United States, formed after SARS (2003) and Swine Flu (2009 Influenza A, NIHI), the U.S. government went from denying the existence of the virus to blaming the spread of the virus. It is true that the virus does not care about nationality or national boundaries. China strategy failed to consider the United States' inability to deal with the new generation threat alone
In addition to the new coronavirus crisis, there is another bigger problem that needs to be faced, that is, how to formulate the United States' strategy toward China. Trump's stubbornness in competition and trade wars between major powers has sounded the alarm for bilateral relations. Although its handling is crude and inappropriate, Americans expressed their affirmation of the Trump administration's tough policy toward China. Reciprocity to the United States needs to be implemented in place. If some foreign companies cannot enter the Chinese market for some reasons, then the United States can also use similar methods to take corresponding measures against Chinese companies. However, Trump's strategy is not sufficient because the information revolution and globalization are changing world politics. From the perspective of a military power, even if the United States is far better than China, the United States still cannot unilaterally ensure its own safety. Despite the setbacks in economic globalization and the trade war has caused distant relations, globalization of environmental issues has continued to rise day by day. Globally epidemics and climate change pose a threat to all Americans, but the American public cannot deal with these problems alone. In this world, all these problems are becoming more and more ubiquitous, from drugs to infectious diseases to cyber terrorism. We must use attractive soft power to develop our networks and institutions to deal with emerging threats.
Joseph Nye is a representative figure of the neoliberal school in international relations theory. He is famous for his earliest proposal of the concept of "soft power"
The victory and the "competition of cooperation" in the competition should be mastered.
Since President Nixon, although there are ideological differences between China and the United States, they have always cooperated. The rapid growth of Asia's economy has prompted a horizontal shift in power to the region, but Asia also has its own internal balance of power. Countries such as Japan, India and Australia balance China's power. In Asia where all countries want to take the lead, the United States should properly handle its relationship with its allies and safeguard its interests in the Western Pacific. In traditional competition for big powers, Washington has a better card, but the question is whether he can play his role ingeniously. The increasingly difficult question for an effective national security strategy is whether the United States and China can take a developmental attitude to encourage cooperation between the two sides, which is reflected in providing global public products to deal with global epidemics and climate change, while competing in the field of traditional major power competition? Can the United States be able to use "cooperative competition" freely? Exaggerating fear and analyzing the worst-case scenario may turn this balance policy into nonsense.
China and the United States should establish a "High-level Committee on the New Coronavirus Epidemic" jointly led by China and the United States
The current coronavirus crisis is a test. First, both sides should agree to ease the public opinion war.
Second, we should recognize that if 1918 (Spanish flu) was a precedent, we would have learned from the past, seeing future waves of COVID-19 after that first wave subsided, and we must be better prepared for it.
Second, a new wave of the new coronavirus will impact poorer countries, which have weaker response capabilities. For their own interests and humanitarian reasons, the United States and China should jointly announce generous donations to the United Nations New UN fund for the fight against the epidemic, which is open to all countries.
Third, considering that humans still have many things to learn about this new coronavirus, we should restore the rich network of connections between scientists and medical professionals a decade ago. A better response is to add a high-level committee on the COVID-19 pandemic chaired by senior Chinese and American leaders to provide political convenience and abolish bureaucratic red tape. Otherwise, the lesson learned by the new coronavirus on the United States will be that we lack a real national security strategy.
(Translated by Boston University Dai Yun, subtitle added by the editor)
html On April 3, Kissinger published a commentary article in the Wall Street Journal, "The COVID-19 pandemic will change the world order forever" (Pictures are from the official website of the Wall Street Journal) Kissinger: The COVID-19 pandemic will change the world order forever
When the COVID-19 pandemic ended, the systems of many countries would be regarded as a bizarre phenomenon of the COVID-19 pandemic, reminding me of my experience in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of Ardennes when I was young. The situation is now like in late 1944, full of a sense of danger. This crisis is not directed at any particular person, but a random and devastating blow. But we now have an important difference from that distant era. At that time, Americans' patience was strengthened for the ultimate national goal. Now, in a country torn apart, efficient and visionary governments are needed to overcome unprecedented, huge, global barriers. Maintaining public trust is crucial to social solidarity, relationships between societies, and international peace and stability. The unity and prosperity of a nation is based on the belief that its national system can foresee disasters, suppress its impact and restore stability. When the coronavirus pandemic ends, the system in many countries will be seen as a failure. However, whether this judgment is objective and fair is irrelevant. The fact is that after this epidemic, the world will become different. Arguments about the past will only make it harder for us to do what we should do now.
No country will face the worst outcome if it does not participate in global cooperation
The new coronavirus launches violent attacks on humanity on an unprecedented scale. Its infections have increased exponentially: U.S. confirmed cases double every five days. And when I was writing this article, we still didn't develop a cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the growing number of cases. The intensive care unit is close to saturation and is even overwhelmed. The detection methods are not enough to determine the scale of the infection and have little effect on reversing the spread of the virus. It may take 12 to 18 months to successfully develop a vaccine.
The U.S. government has done a solid job in avoiding direct disasters. But the ultimate test facing the U.S. government will be whether the spread of the virus can be controlled and then completely reversed in a way and scale to maintain public confidence in Americans' self-governance capabilities. The cause of this crisis should not miss an urgent task: to start the process of transitioning to the post-coronavirus order.
Leaders of various countries deal with this crisis mainly at the national level, but the destruction of society by this virus is not divided into national boundaries.While the attack on human health may be (hopefully) temporary, the political and economic upheaval it triggers may last for generations. No country, even the United States, can defeat the virus alone. The approach to dealing with current problems ultimately must be combined with the vision and plan for global cooperation. If we can't do both at the same time, we will face the worst outcome.
htmlOn March 30, the USNS Comfort medical ship sailed under the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge in New York The United States must take three major actions: to build the future while managing the crisis while learning the lessons of the "Marshall Plan" and the "Manhattan Plan". The United States has the obligation to make major efforts in three areas.
first, enhance the world's ability to recover when facing infectious diseases. Medical achievements such as the development of polio vaccines and the eradication of smallpox, or emerging statistical technology miracles such as medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have put us in a dangerous sense of complacency. In order to control infectious diseases and develop corresponding vaccines in a huge population, we urgently need to develop new technologies. Cities, states and regions must make long-term preparations to protect their people from the infectious disease pandemic through material reserves, cooperative planning and exploration in cutting-edge scientific fields.
Second, strive to heal the trauma of the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis, but the current economic crisis is even more complex: In terms of its speed and global scale, the recession caused by the coronavirus is unprecedented. At the same time, necessary public health measures such as maintaining social distancing and closing schools and enterprises have also made economic development worse. Therefore, the United States should take measures to mitigate the impact of the upcoming chaos on the most vulnerable groups in the world.
Third, maintain the principle of order in the free world. Modern government originated from walled sacks protected by powerful rulers. The ruler is sometimes domineering and sometimes kind, but always strong enough to protect his people from external enemies. Enlightenment thinkers redefined this concept, believing that the state should meet the basic needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being and justice. Individuals cannot obtain these things on their own. In this era of prosperity relying on global trade and population mobility, the disease pandemic has triggered a "time and space disorder" - the once walled walled walls ushered in a revival.
Democratic countries need to defend and uphold their enlightenment values. The regression of the balance of power and legitimacy on a global scale will lead to the disintegration of social contracts both at home and at the international level. However, the millennium issue of legitimacy and power is difficult to resolve simultaneously with the victory over the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Whether in domestic politics or international diplomacy, all parties need to restrain themselves and priorities must be determined.
We have come from the world war filled with smoke and entered a world where human dignity is increasingly prosperous and human dignity is enhanced. Today, we live in an epoch-making period. The historic challenge faced by leaders is to build the future while managing crises. And once it fails, the world will fall into the abyss.
(Translation: Li Si, International Regional Studies at Seoul University, South Korea, Yao Huanyu, Northeast Asia College, Shandong University, subtitle added by the editor)
Author: Joseph Nai Henry Kissinger
Editor: Li Nian Liu Mengci
