American movie "The Siege" (The Siege)
In 1998, the United States released a blockbuster with anti-terrorism theme, "The Siege". The film starred by two Hollywood black and white superstars Denzel Washington and Bruce Willy . It tells the story of a series of terrorist attacks in New York. The US government ordered martial law unprecedentedly and mobilized the Army's 101 Airborne Division to be stationed in Brooklyn to arrest the murderers.
Later, the truth was revealed. The "terrorists" who committed the crime frantically turned out to be the anti-Saddam organization secretly supported by the United States in Iraq after the "Gulf War". Later, it was betrayed by the US government and slaughtered by the Iraqi government. A few survivors traveled across the ocean to New York to give full play to their excellent training, but the goal was no longer to overthrow Saddam, but to retaliate against a foreign regime that failed them.
US President Trump.
The United States is no longer in charge. You are asking for good luck. The White House suddenly issued a major policy announcement on the evening of October 6, saying that after Trump "on-person phone" with Turkish President Erdogan, he confirmed that " Turkish army will launch an offensive against Syrian northern part." The US military currently stationed in northern Syria and is responsible for directly isolating Turkish troops and Syrian Kurdish troops will no longer interfere and protect Kurdish friendly forces. As for the 6,000 ISIS prisoners of war who are currently incarcerated by the Syrian Kurds and constantly threaten to "release" if attacked by Turkish troops, the Trump administration has also publicly stated that "has nothing to do with me." Even if the ISIS remnants really flee, the subsequent pursuit will be "fullly responsible" by the Turkish government.
Trump once again proved that his "America First" is actually "America's Travel Alone". For a time, "betray" (betray) became a popular word in international news, and the tragic Kurds encountered misfortune again.
Turkey has been waiting for this day for a long time
Syrian civil war broke out in early March 2011. At the beginning, Sunni Arabs (also divided into moderates and extremists) resisted the regime of Shiite President Assad, while the Kurds in Syria took advantage of the chaos to rise to establish autonomous regions and align with Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region.
Kurdish population roughly distributed area.
Kurds have long been called the largest "nation without a country" in the world. The Kurds in Syria and Iraq pursue autonomy and even independence, which has made Türkiye in the north feel very worried. Because the area bordering Syria and Iraq in southern Türkiye is the base camp of the Kurds. According to statistics from the French "Kurdish Research Center", Turkey has at least 15 million Kurds, which is more than Syria and Iran combined.
The Turkish government has long suppressed the Kurdish people in China and found that using troops alone is not enough in China, but the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region is no longer shaking, so the Syrian autonomous region must be dealt with as soon as possible.
Therefore, Turkey's official claims that the Syrian Kurdish armed forces "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF), currently active in northern Syria, are related to the Kurdish armed organization " Kurdistan Workers' Party " (PKK) in Turkey. The two are "terrorist organizations" of the same lineage. In order to avoid the SDF threatening the local area and even establishing a "sovereign entity" at Turkey's doorstep, Turkey launched the "Shield Operation Euphrates River" in August 2016 and the "Olive Branch Operation" in January 2018, making great efforts to combat northern Syria.
State map of all parties in the Syrian battlefield ended on September 30.
This operation is the "Northern Syria Security Zone Plan" that Erdogan has been brewing for a long time. The purpose of its operation is to use military force to clear the Turkey-Syrian border, and to "push 30 kilometers in depth" toward northern Syria to establish a 480-kilometer-long security buffer zone. On the one hand, it is used to protect Turkey's mainland, and on the other hand, it is also used to resettle 3.6 million Syrian refugees stranded in Turkey for nearly 8 years.
The Kurds' self-protection method is to further strengthen their cooperative relations with the United States and prove their value with their military achievements in combating ISIS.The US military in the cracks in the cracks of
The Turkish troops entering Syria were marching, and "accidentally" encountered a group of allies - the US Syrian garrison troops on the march.
This group of US military forces that have penetrated into Syria have previously fought side by side with SDF under the banner of the "Anti-ISIS Alliance". Moreover, SDF's role is not just "protected people", they are armed as vanguards of the United States' fight against "ISIS".
On October 7, 2017, ISIS's "capital" Raqqq was finally defeated for more than three years. It was the SDF with Kurdish warriors as the main force. After that, the SDF continued to hunt down the ISIS remnants on the borders of eastern Syria and Iraq.
The invasion of the Turkish army made the US military extremely embarrassed.
Kudian soldiers talked to the US military.
For the US military at that time, Syria Kurdish was the "front-line allies against ISIS" and was also the most powerful combat force in the northern Syrian theater at that time. If the US military wanted to retain its voice in the Syrian civil war, it would be necessary to win over SDF; but at the same time, Turkey was also a NATO ally of the United States, and the US military in northern Syria also needed Turkey's logistical support and intelligence spy. Therefore, the contradictory situation of "fighting with each other" was also in a dilemma for the United States.
However, under the leadership of the then US Secretary of Defense "Mad Dog" Mattis , the US military at that time "touched and posed" to clamp down the Turkish army's advance - Mattis wanted the North American army to actively advance into the Turkish army-SDF's confrontation front. On the one hand, he told Turkey as if nothing had happened, "The US military is carrying out anti-terrorism missions." On the other hand, he coordinated the SDF's troops to "actively evacuate", allowing Türkiye to successfully occupy some areas and also allowing SDF to preserve its main force to the greatest extent.
Under the deterrence of the US military at the station, Turkish talents dare not go beyond the line.
Currently, there are not many US troops stationed in Syria, mainly special forces, with less than 1,000 people, but they are of great significance to the approximately 3 million Kurdish people in northern Syria - under the deterrence of the US troops stationed at the site, Turkish talents dare not cross the line.
The low-key mediation of the US military has slowed down the full-scale conflict between the two armies of Syria and northern Syria. But Trump, who is gradually impatient with the chaos, decided to "withdraw the US military from Syria in full" at the end of 2018. US Secretary of Defense Mattis and Bret McGerk, the president's special envoy of the "Global Strike against ISIS Alliance", had no face to face his allies and had to resign.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Mattis rolled up and left.
After Mattis resigned, although the Trump administration has determined the general direction of "Syria withdrawal", with the intervention of former national security adviser Bolton and senior US generals, the US military on the front line slowly evacuated at a very slow speed. Until October this year, the US Department of Defense has not yet had a specific timetable for "full withdrawal".
Where does the Kurds go from
In the past few years, the US military and the Kurds can be said to be mutually beneficial and complementary.
During its heyday, the Kurds controlled about 1/4 of Syria's territory, including many precious farmland and oil production areas. After conquering the city and territories, the Kurds will establish local affairs management agencies and gradually lay and expand the scale of the autonomous region. The Iraqi Kurds held an independence referendum, but almost no one in the international community supports it. Syrian Kurds are obviously more pragmatic, and the most important goal is to maintain the greatest autonomy after the war.
Syrian Kudian warriors. The SDF is mainly Kurdish, and some have militias of other ethnic groups.
At the end of last year, Türkiye was greatly encouraged to see Trump "show the green light". Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said he would launch a new offensive to wipe out the Kurdish army in northern Syria.
The Kurds were shocked, and indignant, they gradually transferred their strategic chips to the Syrian government forces and Russia. For example, in the recent " Idlib siege war" (the last stronghold province of the Syrian rebel army), the SDF troops directly joined forces with Syrian President Assad; in the earlier " Aleppo siege war", the Kurdish troops of the SDF were directly involved in the siege war.
analysts described it as follows: "This is the United States (betrayed) allies asking for help from the United States' enemies to jointly resist another United States' ally (Turkey)."
However, neither Russia nor Assad currently has no intention of "open battle" with Turkey for the sake of the Kurds, so the SDF abandoned by Trump was instantly trapped in a desperate situation of isolation and helplessness.
US soldiers once fought in Kurdish "People's Protection Force" armband, but now they are leaving.
Although the Iraqi Kurds, the Syrian Kurds and the Turkish Kurds are both "Kurdies", they are not monotonous, and their respective demands are independent or even opposite to each other.
Like PKK active in eastern Turkey, it hated each other with the Balzani family, who was in power in Iraq. The two sides had fought each other for more than ten years. The Iraqi Kurds even formed a low-key alliance with the Turkish government to launch a clearance operation against PKK. In 2017, the Iraqi Kurds fought against the Iraqi government, and the SDF was just watching the tiger's fight across the mountains and did not provide support.
According to media reports, "No one received the notice from White House in advance, and all parties were caught off guard by Trump's announcement. SDF is very angry at present." Although the front-line commander has issued an order to defend the country, "Do you have to guard the Kurdish region in northern Syria at any cost!"
, the senior management has planned a retreat - retreat to the Syria-Iraq border mountainous area behind northeast , preparing to fight against Turkish troops for a long time.
Western countries shirking each other, ISIS may become the biggest winner
When SDF mobilizes its troops, another major problem will also completely ignite - what should the 6,000 ISIS prisoners of war who were imprisoned by SDF? If the SDF really "releases" these terrorists as promised, will the ISIS, which has been greatly reduced in popularity, revived in Syria and Iraq?
The US government said: "The United States has been urging France, Germany, and other European countries to 'repay' these terrorists who came out of their countries, but they refused to accept and were unwilling to take responsibility. The United States does not intend to take over this hot potato, because taking over these trials will not only be absent, but also waste a lot of American taxes."
"The United States has responsibly defeated ISIS and has also seriously arrested these terrorists in the past two years. The next thing has nothing to do with us. The anti-terrorism raid in this area will be fully responsible for the Turkish government."
Anyone with a discerning eye can see that this is the United States' high-sounding shirk - Turkey's target is the Kurds, so where will it take care of ISIS prisoners of war.
For Trump, this is "Obama's war"
The Syrian civil war meets the most "war-weary" US President Obama in modern times, as well as Russia and Iran that fully support the Assad regime. In addition, the trauma caused by the Libyan civil war to European and American countries, the ending has been destined.
Trump has always believed that the Syrian civil war is "Obama's war" (Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, and Trump also wants it), and it is a hot potato that he doesn't want to take on at all. The reason why he did not withdraw his troops immediately after taking office is actually because of ISIS's score.
Obama displays the Nobel Peace Prize certificate and medals.
When ISIS territory shrinks day by day and military strength decreases, Trump no longer has any interest in this game.
On December 14 last year, Trump spoke on the phone with Turkish President Erdogan. Erdogan directly questioned Trump with the argument that "ISIS is no longer a threat, and there is no need for the US military to stay in Syria." Unexpectedly, Trump gave a big gift on the spot, promising to withdraw troops from Syria. Obviously, he did not remember the Kurds who fought side by side with the US military.
When all sides' bad comments come like a tide, especially the bigwigs of their own Republican Party also accused them, Trump could not sit still.
He issued a statement on Monday (7th) warning Erdogan that if Türkiye takes too "out of the fire", the United States will "completely destroy" Türkiye's economy. "I've done this before!"
Trump has repeatedly emphasized his core principle: The United States will no longer be a "world policeman." If ISIS dares to provoke the United States again, he will be furious; but other than that, the war in Syria has nothing to do with the United States.
From another perspective, Trump always claims to make the world's most powerful US military stronger, but the US military must try to stay at home. As long as international affairs have nothing to do with the (short-term) interests, the US will no longer actively export military strength. Trump said in the Iraqi Army: "If the United States wants to fight for other countries, it should be paid. We will no longer be suckers."
Some analysts said that in a tone, Trump is the leader of the free world, so it is better to say that he is the godfather of the mafia - collecting protection fees. And this is done very well by , Saudi , and Trump likes it very much.
As for the "poor" Kurds who even need weapons to be supported by the United States, if it were not for the necessary value, how could Trump care about their lives and death? This is a loss of money.
Will the Kurds forget the betrayal of their former "comrade-in-arms" US military? Let time answer.
On November 6, 1998, "Comprehensive Siege" was released in the United States. In less than three years, on September 11, 2001, the prophecy in the play became a reality: Al Qaeda, which was once indirectly supported by the United States, launched the "9/11 attack".
