Nanduwan Caishe News Reporter Wang Yufeng During the National Day holiday, the international market was changing, and many important stock indexes around the world rose first and then fell, but overall they closed higher.
From the whole week of the holiday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose 1.99%, 1.51% and 0.73% respectively. In terms of Asia and Europe stock indexes, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index and others ranked first, with an increase of more than 4% and 3% respectively, while the FTSE 100 in the UK and DAX in Germany also rose by 1.41% and 1.31% respectively.
is particularly remarkable. After a day of suspension of trading on the Double Ninth Festival on the 4th, Hong Kong stocks ushered in a rare surge on the 5th. The Hang Seng Index rose by more than 5%, regaining the 18,000-point index mark, and the Hang Seng Technology Index also rose by more than 7%. After a continuous decline in European and American stock markets, the weekly carnival was also staged, with many major indexes rising sharply.
news, on October 4, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development pointed out that if the Federal Reserve and other central banks continue to raise interest rates, it may push the global economy into recession and then fall into long-term stagnation. In addition, for every percentage point increase in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate, economic output in other developed countries will decrease by 0.5% over the next three years, while economic output in poor countries will decrease by 0.8%.
The United Nations calls on the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate hikes, and there are differences in internal opinions from the Federal Reserve, which is considered an important reason for the rebound of the global market. Global stock markets have thus experienced a round of corrections.
, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said: "The Fed raises interest rates five times this year, and the pace of interest rate hikes is getting faster and faster, and the rate hikes are increasing, resulting in an increase in the risk of the global economy falling into recession. In order to curb soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve quickly raised the benchmark interest rate, which has led to investors pessimistic about the economic outlook. This is the third major impact faced by the global economy after the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine."
Of course, overall, it may still be too early to bet on the current stage of the Federal Reserve's "early shift".
"The Fed's interest rate hike has not shown any signs of slowing down at present, but the stock market often reflects future changes in advance, and the market rebound also gives investors a breath of breath. After the previous sharp drop, some funds have brought a rebound," said Yang Delong.
Industrial Securities also said that on the one hand, after the 2008 financial crisis, the liquidity and capital adequacy ratio of the global banking industry both increased significantly, and the current level was close to historical highs, while Credit Suisse is more an isolated case and does not pose a systemic risk; on the other hand, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that "before inflation has a significant decline in value, the possibility of the Fed's turn is relatively limited." Therefore, it may be too early to bet on "advanced shift" at the current stage, and subsequent market expectations for the Federal Reserve's tightening may still be repeated.
So, during the National Day holiday, the external market once saw a collective surge. What impact will the A-share market have on the opening after the holiday? Will there be a "good start"?
"very favorable." Yang Delong said that the A-share market showed three consecutive adjustments in the third quarter, and the market approached the 3,000-point integer mark again. The market's low-level characteristics were obvious, and the market trading volume shrank significantly in 9, with only about 60% of the high point, and the valuations of the two markets also fell near the historical low area.
He added that the 9-year PMI returned to 50% boom and frigidity, showing that the economy is gradually recovering. Although the recovery efforts slowed down in the third quarter, the economy is expected to gradually recover after a package of policies to stabilize economic growth has been gradually implemented. "The economic recovery is the basis for the continued rebound of the stock market. The A-share market may usher in a recovery opportunity in the fourth quarter, especially some high-quality leading stocks that were mistakenly killed may perform well. The fourth quarter is also a traditional peak consumption season, and consumer stocks may perform well, especially some consumer stocks that are temporarily affected by the epidemic."
