The market gradually digests fundamentals pessimistic expectations. The market position is in the cost-effectiveness of allocation is rising, and domestic policies continue to send positive signals. During the holiday, major global stock indexes have risen slightly, which is conducive to the increase in risk preference for A shares . Investors are advised to maintain strategic optimism, wait for an opportunity to make arrangements, and balance the configuration in a positive direction based on the third quarter report expectations:1) The growth direction is preferred to be profitable next year, the wind/storage/light/military industry; 2) The cycle direction is optimistic about electricity/oil transportation/breeding/coal; 3) Real estate consumption is preferred to be the leader in real estate/liquor.
Recommended logic
01 Chengdu Bank
1. Chengdu Bank’s key moat is the local fiscal account card position advantage established by time. is difficult to be copied and surpassed. The low-cost liability advantage makes Chengdu Bank have the ability to obtain high-quality assets, which is the key to its long-term investment value.
2. With low-cost deposits, deep local resources and a huge retail customer base as the core, develops two long-term and sustainable business engines for entity-based corporate customers and retail business, achieving a virtuous cycle of sustainable development with "low risks but not low income".
3. The advantage of debt that is difficult to copy and surpass is the key to Chengdu Bank's continued leading financial indicators. 's industry-leading ROE, revenue and profit growth rate, low non-performing and high provisions are sustainable in the long run.
02 Oriental Electric
1, the leader in the power equipment industry, ranks first in the country in the market share of hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, and gas engine industries, wind power and offshore wind turbines, and land wind turbines, and land wind turbines.
2, thermal power, wind power, emerging growth industries, and trade business revenue accounted for the highest proportion; has increased significantly in the past two years, and its performance growth is highly certain, achieving the best level during the 13th Five-Year Plan period in 2020.
3. Operating income is highly positively correlated with power investment. company is the strongest beta in the context of power investment growth. It is expected that power investment will enter a new round of prosperity cycle.
03 China Ship
1. Driven by the aging of ships + new environmental protection regulations, civilian ships ushered in a 10-year upward cycle, . After 10 years of capacity shrinkage and no short-term expansion of production, the supply side of this round of supply and demand has expanded, the cost of new ships has approached a historical high and is expected to hit a new high, and the profit center of shipyards will also exceed the previous round.
2. China Shipbuilding is the leader in domestic shipbuilding. The Jiangnan Shipyard and Waigaoqiao Shipyard under have been ranked at the forefront all year round and have strong strength. In addition, Jiangnan Shipyard has begun to undertake LNG ship orders. In addition, the group promises to solve the problem of competition among peers by 2024, and there are expectations of asset integration, which will be a major catalytic factor in the stock price.
04 Shanghai Electric Power
1. Domestic thermal power fulfillment rate gradually increased after the third quarter, imported coal replacement and redesign gradually achieved results, power volume improved significantly month-on-month, and the business has passed the freezing point in the second quarter and is expected to gradually rise.
2. The profits of foreign thermal power projects exceeded expectations. Turkey's electricity price rose rapidly in the third quarter, increasing project revenue; the imported coal from the power plant signed a long-term agreement with Russia, fuel cost has advantages, and profit elasticity began to be released in the third quarter, which is expected to become an important catalytic factor for the stock price.
3, domestic green electric is driven by the installed scale and has steady growth in profits. has gradually become the ballast of the company's performance and ushers in long-term development opportunities.
05 China Merchants Shekou
1. Sales are better than the average among peers, and the sales in August grew by 17% year-on-year, with a significant marginal improvement.
2. The land acquisition intensity is high and the industry ranks high. 1-August land acquisition amount accounted for 56% of the sales amount, which is at a high level.
3. The background of central enterprises, financing channels are smooth.
06 Mingyue Lens
1. Mingyue Lens launched the "easy control" series of myopia prevention and control products in the second half of 2021. is expected to achieve rapid increase in volume in 2022. The product profit margin reaches 40%, which is expected to quickly contribute to the company's performance incremental contribution.
2, the defocus lens market has entered the stage of accelerated improvement of penetration rate . Therefore, the defocus lens has obvious prevention and control effects, safe and easy wearing methods, wide fitting channels, and lower prices than other myopia prevention and control products. With the continuous launch of various brands of products in the past two years, marketing and promotion are strengthened, and the penetration rate of categories is expected to increase rapidly.
3. Mingyue Lens is the leader in domestic lens brands and has the highest market share by sales. has channel, product and brand advantages, and is optimistic about the competitive advantages of Mingyue Qingkong series.
07 Perroyal
1. The company's large single product strategy continues to be verified. The interim report of has been further transformed into an increase in gross profit margin, thereby driving the upward trend of actual operating profit margin, and the profit structure is expected to continue to improve.
2. The company has the first-mover advantage in multi-channel layout, with excellent operating capabilities of synchronous verification, and good self-cast ratio, low dependence on super heads, better risk resistance and channel costs.
3. Under the economic pressure, international brands have a trend of further moving downward to domestic high-quality brands. The significant increase in 618 Perchoy's ranking shows that the logic of substitution for international brands is expected.
08 Haier Smart Home
1, Haier has mastered the most favorable position in the future competition of home appliances - a private brand in the domestic high-end market and overseas markets.
2. Haier also has the logic of increasing its market share overseas. Haier continues to expand its core home appliance products through the operation of its own brands in the overseas market through the upgrade of high-differentiation and system-based product structures, leverages the advantages of global collaborative platforms, and through joint negotiations, layout optimization, strategic procurement and other project collaboration, it will gain a higher market share, so that hedges the pressure of some overseas demand in .
3. In recent years, cost reduction and efficiency improvement have been continuously realized.
4. The company and employees equity are becoming increasingly deep, and continues to mobilize employees' enthusiasm.
09 Shenglu Communication
1. The company's traditional communication antenna business has grown steadily, and the market share of main products is high.
2. Military electronics business orders are in a period of concentrated release of demand. will enter a stage of rapid development in the future and is expected to become the main driving force for the company's performance growth.
3. We expect the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.42 billion yuan, 1.767 billion yuan and 2.228 billion yuan. increased by 347.55%, 24.46% and 26.12% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 229 million yuan, 331 million yuan and 456 million yuan, respectively, up 207.82%, 44.72% and 37.62% year-on-year. The current stock price corresponds to PEs of 32x, 22x and 16x respectively. We believe that Hezheng Electronics Assets has been processed, the company's civil communications business has developed steadily, the military electronics business has good demand, and the operation has ushered in a turning point.
10 Aikodi
1. Short-term cost side improvement, mainly affects three aspects: stabilization and decline in raw material prices, improvement in exchange rate , and reduction in freight rates.
2. The medium and long-term benefit pattern has been cleared, and the share has continued to increase. The epidemic has accelerated the clearing of the global pattern, the company's small-piece management capabilities have highlighted its advantages, and its market share has continued to increase.
3, in the future, it has potential business increments such as integrated die castings, energy storage shell parts and robot reducer shell parts.
CICC Research Top Ten Jinshen 2022 Jinshen Review
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