Yang Xinzhai, deputy director of the Maritime Bureau of the Ministry of Transport, said on March 16 that China suspended international cruise ships from mainland China at the end of January, involving 7 international cruise companies around the world, with a total of 10 international cruise ships.
cruise ships carry a relatively large capacity, are highly densely populated, and the air conditioning and drainage systems are all connected. During the maritime voyage, once an epidemic occurs, it is difficult to obtain effective medical treatment.
Previously, two super luxury cruise ships, Japan's Diamond Princess and the American "Supreme Princess", had collective infections, and the "Horror Cruise" attracted global attention.
The picture shows that on March 9, in San Francisco, USA, the "Supreme Princess" cruise ship is about to pass through the Golden Gate Bridge.
In addition to the above two cruise ships, many cruise ships have also been refused to berth in different regions due to the epidemic. Countries are increasingly vigilant about international cruise ship docking. The number of ports that refuse cruise ship docking has been rising. Cruise company stock prices have fallen sharply, and the global cruise industry has entered a new "dark age".
In the past decade, the number of passengers on cruise ships around the world has continued to rise, and the Asian market has grown rapidly. In 2018, the number of cruise tourists in China reached 4.87 million, ten times that in 2011. At the same time, China, which has long been the world's largest shipbuilding power, also launched the construction of its first domestically produced large luxury cruise ship in October 2019. The 135,000-ton cruise ship is scheduled to be delivered in the second half of 2023.
Why should China build large luxury cruise ships? Why do some people think that the construction of a luxury cruise ship is no less difficult than that of an aircraft carrier? What is the prospect of China's first large luxury cruise ship under the "terror cruise ship" crisis?
1
Shipbuilding industry one of the "Three Jewels in the Crown"
1909, the sinking of the "Titanic" hit the cruise industry with a heavy blow. This time, the cruise industry encountered another major crisis - the two super luxury cruise ships "Diamond Princess" and "Supreme Princess" that had an accident in
have experienced collective infections and turned into "horror cruises". Air, gambling tables, dining tables, swimming pools, dance floors, Internet cafes, shops... have all become ways to spread the virus.
"Diamond Princess" docked in Japan, the ship is from the United Kingdom, and the operating entity belongs to the United States. Due to unclear responsibilities, the United States ignores it. Nowadays, for the United States, which has insufficient medical supplies, the "Supreme Princess" has become a problem that can no longer be blamed.
What is particularly criticized is that the US government learned that a passenger was suffering from COVID-19 as early as the end of February, but allowed the cruise ship to continue sailing.
This also gives China a warning to design large luxury cruise ships. We must consider the possible cross-infection problems on cruise ships and have a sense of risk control.
Domestic cruise renderings Source: Interface News
Shipbuilding industry has "three pearls in the crown", namely aircraft carriers, liquefied natural gas ships and luxury cruise ships. Some statements say that the design and construction of luxury cruise ships is more difficult than aircraft carriers. In fact, it cannot be compared in this way. To be more accurate, the construction of luxury cruise ships and aircraft carriers have their own advantages.
aircraft carrier needless to say, the countries that have aircraft carriers in the world today are the United States, China, Britain, France, Russia, India, Italy and Thailand. But only China, the United States and Britain have the ability to design, build and equipment supporting both (the French carrier catapult "Charles de Gaulle" comes from the United States, and Russia's "Kuznetsov" exposed the construction capability issue during the overhaul of the Russian supervising). Among them, the UK chose F35B as the carrier-based aircraft . Therefore, if the design and manufacturing of carrier-based aircraft are considered together, only China and the United States have this strength.
LNG ship is a "sea super-freezer truck" used to transport LNG. Currently, only 13 shipyards in the United States, China, Japan, South Korea and a few European countries can be built. Compared with compressed natural gas ships, although liquefied natural gas ships have more steps to liquefy and regasification, long-distance transportation is much more economical. As a major shipbuilding country, in addition to Hudong China, which has the capacity to build liquefied natural gas ships, Dalian Shipbuilding Heavy Industry is also preparing to join the ranks of builders.
As for luxury cruise ships, many people may not know that they are extremely difficult to build. Whether in Japan, the United States or China, they still lack the ability to independently build luxury cruise ships.The construction of luxury cruise ships is basically monopolized by four European countries: Italy, Germany, France and , Netherlands, . The Fincantini Shipyard in Italy, the Meyer Shipyard in Germany, the Atlantic Shipyard in France and the Aker Shipyard in the Netherlands have won more than 90% of the world's orders. The vast majority of these shipyards’ thousands of supporting equipment suppliers are in their own country or in Europe. Such a threshold makes it very difficult to domestically produce large cruise ships starting from scratch.
As of now, no country can independently pick these "three pearls". And China is likely to become the first one.
2
Can China's first large cruise ship be released as scheduled?
China's large luxury cruise ship is planned to go into the sea in 2023, with a total of 2,125 rooms and can carry more than 5,000 passengers to the sea at a time.
Construction of a large cruise ship is a very complex giant system project with 25 million parts, 10 times that of a large aircraft. It is easy to imagine how difficult it is to assemble so many parts into a sea city.
Although China still has zero experience in this area, Italy's Fincantini has reached a cooperation with China's shipbuilding industry to jointly design and build the first domestically produced large luxury cruise ship by China Cruise Technology, a subsidiary of China Shipbuilding and Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, which is known as "China's No. 1 Shipyard". The first actual ship will be delivered in 2023, and the second actual ship will be delivered by the end of 2024.
As early as 2017, Waitaoqiao Shipbuilding began the construction plan based on the imported Fencantini design drawings. According to customary practice, after the cruise construction contract is signed, the delivery date cannot be changed, because the ship owner has signed a contract with the passenger during the shipbuilding period and finalized the flight schedule.
On October 18, 2019, the large-scale cruise steel plate cutting ceremony was held in Shanghai. Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Fei/photo
Some people may ask, Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has been delayed before building a large cruise ship?
Yes, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry's shipment was postponed for 3 months, and it was a loss that it had withdrawn from its luxury cruise construction business of more than 100,000 tons.
How can China have the confidence to deliver the ship on time?
Because the world's shipbuilding center has long shifted from Europe to Asia, and gradually moved from Japan to China and South Korea, Japan, which is on the decline in the shipbuilding industry, is incomparable to China.
More importantly, China chose the "introduction, digestion, absorption and reinnovation" model with successful precedents such as nuclear power and high-speed rail. Through joint venture operation with the world's largest cruise company Carnival, it was built with the world's largest luxury cruise manufacturer Fencantini. The former placed an order for the latter. Under this cooperation model, the design experience of foreign giants and supplier resources will become the guarantee of the project.
Some people also say that the method of "introduction, digestion, absorption and reinnovation" has been proven to be flawed under repeated sanctions from the United States.
Indeed, in specific areas, especially those related to national information security, in order to prevent "bottlenecks", we should also carry out independent development paths and "walking on two legs". But specifically for luxury cruise ships, this is a luxury product, similar to luxury cars and luxury watches. China's entry into this field is not only a need for the strategy of building a strong country, but also an increase in the added value of the industry. In this process, what China has learned is not only hard power, but also soft power.
For example, the overall layout technology of luxury cruise ships involves both the comfort of passengers' leisure and entertainment, and also involves fire prevention, life saving, and epidemic response. For China, this gap in design capabilities is much larger than the gap in construction capabilities. For example, the ultimate shock and noise reduction tests the design and matching of luxury goods. What is even more difficult is aesthetics and decoration. This is the strong advantage of some European luxury goods powerhouses for centuries. Even the United States is difficult to interfere with. It is something that engineers cannot do. Only artists can participate and must be combined with engineering practice. Ordinary artists can design the decoration of five-star hotels, but on boats with strict fire protection requirements and limited combustible materials, they must also reflect luxury and dignity. What tests not only aesthetic foundation, but also the inheritance and experience accumulated over the years.
Therefore, the core technologies related to information security such as luxury cruise manufacturing are different from the core technologies related to information security. The focus is not on the improvement of the domestic production rate of parts, but on leading the ship industry to a future with higher added value.
3
"Horror Cruise" crisis sounds the alarm
At present, the penetration rate of China's cruise market is still very low, and less than one thousand people choose cruises in domestic travel, and more than
85% of Chinese tourists will not make secondary consumption on cruises. Objectively speaking, China's cruise tourism industry has also been relatively sluggish in recent years. Although many new ships have entered China in 2019, such as the Norwegian Joy, the Princess of the Prosperity, the Sapphire Princess, the Ocean Sailor, and the Victoria have left the Chinese market one after another.
Since 2006, China's cruise tourism industry has gone through a "golden decade" with an average annual growth rate of more than 30%. Cruise-based leisure tourism, which integrates food, accommodation, transportation, travel, shopping and entertainment, undoubtedly has greater potential in China, where per capita GDP continues to increase and population aging. Some super-large and super-luxury cruise ships withdraw from the Chinese market mainly because the Chinese market is overly dependent on agents with high concessions to charter ships (selling cruise spaces to travel agencies, or intermediate charterers). This low-price competition model lowers the profit margin.
China is the world's largest source of outbound tourists and the world's second largest cruise market. The development of cruise tourism is highly expected. So, will this crisis affect the development of China's cruise tourism industry?
If you want to say the negative impact, there must be.
At present, cruise ships in the Asian market have been suspended. According to cruise economic research experts, the direct losses of some cruise companies are 700 million to 1 billion yuan due to cancellation of flights, and the losses of small cruise companies are about 50 million yuan. However, other suppliers and enterprises supporting cruise companies and ports are initially expected to be around 1 billion yuan.
Two "Princess" incidents cast a shadow on the cruise tourism industry. Compared with the defects of the cruise itself, the responsibility for operation and management is greater. But with this lesson, from the perspective of construction, design, and operation risk control, it will undoubtedly help the improvement of domestic large cruise ships.
From the perspective of the tourism industry, domestic large cruise ships are scheduled to be delivered in the second half of 2023. According to the WHO's estimates, the new coronavirus vaccine may be completed within 18 months. Although vaccine development often takes longer, it can be estimated that domestic large cruise ships still have enough time to avoid the impact of the epidemic.
There is also a process for tourists to recover their confidence, which may start as soon as the second half of this year and at the latest after the vaccine is released. The tourism market that has experienced this bleak period will give birth to a new round of consumption waves to digest the backlog of market demand during the epidemic.
Of course, if domestic large cruise ships want to achieve better development, it is essential to increase the proportion of direct sales and increase the secondary consumption of tourists, but this must be based on improving the quality of cruise ships. If it is an ordinary luxury cruise ship, tourists pay more attention to the destination, and the cruise itself is just a tourism product. The first domestically produced large cruise ship of is an important milestone in China's path to becoming a manufacturing power. The cruise ship itself carries special significance. In addition to having excellent quality, it is more important to demonstrate its uniqueness in promotion and publicity concepts and enhance added value . Once the direct sales model that is forced to develop maturely, the direct sales ratio of the first domestically produced large cruise ship may exceed the "Royal Caribbean" that performed best in the domestic cruise market in recent years. If some shore tourism business can be developed that can match its special identities, it will create a differentiated product that is scarce in the market. So, with the recovery of China's cruise tourism industry after the epidemic, domestic large cruise ships will surely usher in the dawn after the dark night. (Text | Big Bag)
The construction of luxury cruise ships is basically monopolized by four European countries: Italy, Germany, France and , Netherlands, . The Fincantini Shipyard in Italy, the Meyer Shipyard in Germany, the Atlantic Shipyard in France and the Aker Shipyard in the Netherlands have won more than 90% of the world's orders. The vast majority of these shipyards’ thousands of supporting equipment suppliers are in their own country or in Europe. Such a threshold makes it very difficult to domestically produce large cruise ships starting from scratch. As of now, no country can independently pick these "three pearls". And China is likely to become the first one.
2
Can China's first large cruise ship be released as scheduled?
China's large luxury cruise ship is planned to go into the sea in 2023, with a total of 2,125 rooms and can carry more than 5,000 passengers to the sea at a time.
Construction of a large cruise ship is a very complex giant system project with 25 million parts, 10 times that of a large aircraft. It is easy to imagine how difficult it is to assemble so many parts into a sea city.
Although China still has zero experience in this area, Italy's Fincantini has reached a cooperation with China's shipbuilding industry to jointly design and build the first domestically produced large luxury cruise ship by China Cruise Technology, a subsidiary of China Shipbuilding and Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, which is known as "China's No. 1 Shipyard". The first actual ship will be delivered in 2023, and the second actual ship will be delivered by the end of 2024.
As early as 2017, Waitaoqiao Shipbuilding began the construction plan based on the imported Fencantini design drawings. According to customary practice, after the cruise construction contract is signed, the delivery date cannot be changed, because the ship owner has signed a contract with the passenger during the shipbuilding period and finalized the flight schedule.
On October 18, 2019, the large-scale cruise steel plate cutting ceremony was held in Shanghai. Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Fei/photo
Some people may ask, Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has been delayed before building a large cruise ship?
Yes, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry's shipment was postponed for 3 months, and it was a loss that it had withdrawn from its luxury cruise construction business of more than 100,000 tons.
How can China have the confidence to deliver the ship on time?
Because the world's shipbuilding center has long shifted from Europe to Asia, and gradually moved from Japan to China and South Korea, Japan, which is on the decline in the shipbuilding industry, is incomparable to China.
More importantly, China chose the "introduction, digestion, absorption and reinnovation" model with successful precedents such as nuclear power and high-speed rail. Through joint venture operation with the world's largest cruise company Carnival, it was built with the world's largest luxury cruise manufacturer Fencantini. The former placed an order for the latter. Under this cooperation model, the design experience of foreign giants and supplier resources will become the guarantee of the project.
Some people also say that the method of "introduction, digestion, absorption and reinnovation" has been proven to be flawed under repeated sanctions from the United States.
Indeed, in specific areas, especially those related to national information security, in order to prevent "bottlenecks", we should also carry out independent development paths and "walking on two legs". But specifically for luxury cruise ships, this is a luxury product, similar to luxury cars and luxury watches. China's entry into this field is not only a need for the strategy of building a strong country, but also an increase in the added value of the industry. In this process, what China has learned is not only hard power, but also soft power.
For example, the overall layout technology of luxury cruise ships involves both the comfort of passengers' leisure and entertainment, and also involves fire prevention, life saving, and epidemic response. For China, this gap in design capabilities is much larger than the gap in construction capabilities. For example, the ultimate shock and noise reduction tests the design and matching of luxury goods. What is even more difficult is aesthetics and decoration. This is the strong advantage of some European luxury goods powerhouses for centuries. Even the United States is difficult to interfere with. It is something that engineers cannot do. Only artists can participate and must be combined with engineering practice. Ordinary artists can design the decoration of five-star hotels, but on boats with strict fire protection requirements and limited combustible materials, they must also reflect luxury and dignity. What tests not only aesthetic foundation, but also the inheritance and experience accumulated over the years.
Therefore, the core technologies related to information security such as luxury cruise manufacturing are different from the core technologies related to information security. The focus is not on the improvement of the domestic production rate of parts, but on leading the ship industry to a future with higher added value.
3
"Horror Cruise" crisis sounds the alarm
At present, the penetration rate of China's cruise market is still very low, and less than one thousand people choose cruises in domestic travel, and more than
85% of Chinese tourists will not make secondary consumption on cruises. Objectively speaking, China's cruise tourism industry has also been relatively sluggish in recent years. Although many new ships have entered China in 2019, such as the Norwegian Joy, the Princess of the Prosperity, the Sapphire Princess, the Ocean Sailor, and the Victoria have left the Chinese market one after another.
Since 2006, China's cruise tourism industry has gone through a "golden decade" with an average annual growth rate of more than 30%. Cruise-based leisure tourism, which integrates food, accommodation, transportation, travel, shopping and entertainment, undoubtedly has greater potential in China, where per capita GDP continues to increase and population aging. Some super-large and super-luxury cruise ships withdraw from the Chinese market mainly because the Chinese market is overly dependent on agents with high concessions to charter ships (selling cruise spaces to travel agencies, or intermediate charterers). This low-price competition model lowers the profit margin.
China is the world's largest source of outbound tourists and the world's second largest cruise market. The development of cruise tourism is highly expected. So, will this crisis affect the development of China's cruise tourism industry?
If you want to say the negative impact, there must be.
At present, cruise ships in the Asian market have been suspended. According to cruise economic research experts, the direct losses of some cruise companies are 700 million to 1 billion yuan due to cancellation of flights, and the losses of small cruise companies are about 50 million yuan. However, other suppliers and enterprises supporting cruise companies and ports are initially expected to be around 1 billion yuan.
Two "Princess" incidents cast a shadow on the cruise tourism industry. Compared with the defects of the cruise itself, the responsibility for operation and management is greater. But with this lesson, from the perspective of construction, design, and operation risk control, it will undoubtedly help the improvement of domestic large cruise ships.
From the perspective of the tourism industry, domestic large cruise ships are scheduled to be delivered in the second half of 2023. According to the WHO's estimates, the new coronavirus vaccine may be completed within 18 months. Although vaccine development often takes longer, it can be estimated that domestic large cruise ships still have enough time to avoid the impact of the epidemic.
There is also a process for tourists to recover their confidence, which may start as soon as the second half of this year and at the latest after the vaccine is released. The tourism market that has experienced this bleak period will give birth to a new round of consumption waves to digest the backlog of market demand during the epidemic.
Of course, if domestic large cruise ships want to achieve better development, it is essential to increase the proportion of direct sales and increase the secondary consumption of tourists, but this must be based on improving the quality of cruise ships. If it is an ordinary luxury cruise ship, tourists pay more attention to the destination, and the cruise itself is just a tourism product. The first domestically produced large cruise ship of is an important milestone in China's path to becoming a manufacturing power. The cruise ship itself carries special significance. In addition to having excellent quality, it is more important to demonstrate its uniqueness in promotion and publicity concepts and enhance added value . Once the direct sales model that is forced to develop maturely, the direct sales ratio of the first domestically produced large cruise ship may exceed the "Royal Caribbean" that performed best in the domestic cruise market in recent years. If some shore tourism business can be developed that can match its special identities, it will create a differentiated product that is scarce in the market. So, with the recovery of China's cruise tourism industry after the epidemic, domestic large cruise ships will surely usher in the dawn after the dark night. (Text | Big Bag)
