Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" raw material industry development plan, with the development goals including: by 2025, the production capacity of key raw materials such as crude steel and cement will only decrease but not increase, and the capacity utilization rate will be maintained at a reasonable level. The
plan stated that the comprehensive energy consumption of ton of steel in the steel industry is reduced by 2%, the energy consumption level per unit clinker for cement products is reduced by 3.7%, and the carbon emissions of electrolytic aluminum are reduced by 5%. Research and establish a constraint mechanism to curb the expansion of excess capacity by using carbon emissions, pollutant emissions, total energy consumption and other means. Implement normalized staggered production of cement and explore the establishment of a staggered production mechanism in industries such as steel. Implement energy conservation reviews and strictly control the fuel consumption of coal in major coal-consuming industries such as petrochemicals, steel, and building materials.
By 2025, crude steel production capacity will only decrease but not increase
Chen Kelong, Director of the Raw Materials Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced that the "Plan" this time put forward the overall goal of "two-stage". By 2025, the ability of the raw materials industry to ensure and lead the high-quality development of in manufacturing will be significantly enhanced; the growth rate of added value will remain at a reasonable level, and the proportion in manufacturing will be basically stable; the scale of new materials industry will continue to increase, and the proportion of in the raw materials industry will be significantly increased; an industrial development pattern with higher quality, better efficiency, better layout, greener and safer will be initially formed. By 2035, it will become a highland for the research and development, production and application of important raw material products in the world, the competitiveness of the new material industry will be comprehensively improved, and the level of green and low-carbon development will be the world leader.
Deputy Director of the Raw Materials Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Chang Guowu said that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, accelerate the quality improvement and upgrading of steel products, promote quality grading and classification evaluation in the fields of aerospace, ship and marine engineering equipment, energy equipment, advanced rail transit and automobiles, high-performance machinery, construction, etc., and continuously improve the physical quality reliability of the products. Support steel enterprises to target downstream industrial upgrading and the development direction of strategic emerging industries in , focus on developing key varieties such as high-quality special steel, high-end equipment special steel, and core basic components steel. We strive to break through about 5 new key steel materials every year to meet the steel needs of major technical equipment and major projects.
Chang Guowu also said that the 14th Five-Year Plan will encourage leading enterprises to implement mergers and reorganizations and build several world-class super-large steel enterprise groups. Relying on advantageous enterprises, we will cultivate 1-2 professional leading enterprises in the fields of stainless steel, special steel, seamless steel pipes, cast pipes, etc.
Looking for opportunities to cross cycle
Chua Securities said that since the second half of 2021, the supply-side energy shortage problem has caused coal prices to continue to break through historical highs, and policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices have been intensively introduced since July. From the perspective of policy focus, supply and price stability can be divided into two stages: the first stage mainly focuses on accelerating the release of coal production capacity to supplement the supply gap, and has not directly intervened in coal prices, but has stabilized coal prices by adjusting the fundamentals of supply and demand, and the second stage is mainly stable.
Under high prices and policy pressure, supply pressure will gradually improve. Among them, with the country's strong supply guarantee, coal supply has recovered significantly, coal consumption tends to decline, the supply and demand gap has recovered, and the price center of gravity has moved down; while the growth of crude oil demand has slowed down due to the downward trend of global economy, and the oil price center of gravity may shift down; while the demand for natural gas remains stable under the background of carbon neutrality, and there is limited room for a significant adjustment. Overall, the energy problem that restricts the supply of commodities is expected to be significantly alleviated in 2022, and the supply constraints of commodities will be alleviated.
Chuancai Securities believes that the current coal sector is pessimistic and expects to recover. The increase in the benchmark price of the long-term cooperation team has led to the continuous improvement of the performance of the high-term cooperation team thermal coal , which is expected to catalyze the recovery and reshaping of valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the beneficiaries of stable performance and high dividends: Yanzhou Coal Energy (600188), China Shenhua (601088), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225), Pingmei Coal Shares (601666); the beneficiaries of growth-oriented expectations: Shanxi Coal (000983), Jinkong Coal Industry (601001). Nonferrous metals , the real estate financing side policies are facing correction, and the most tight capital may have passed, and the contribution of the new energy field to the electrolytic aluminum demand side should not be underestimated. You can pay attention to the opportunity of a phased rebound in the first half of the year. The factors that support copper prices in the short term are low inventory and high inflation expectations . It is expected that as inventory rebounds and inflation expectations fall, copper prices will have certain downward pressure. Related targets: Zijin Mining (601899), Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807), Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (002532), China Aluminum Co., Ltd. (601600), Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933), Wanshun New Materials (300057).
Zheshang Securities (601878) pointed out that "supply has a top and demand has a bottom" will continue to cost the basic logic of my country's steel industry, and steel prices are expected to continue to operate at a relatively ideal position. Even if it is more conservatively considered, steel prices will fall to the 21-year average level in 2022, and there is still room for improvement in gross profit ton of steel. Considering the current requirements for stable economic growth and the judgment of the pattern of supply and demand on the industrial side, the current fundamental outlook of the steel industry based on 2021H2 in 2022, the changes in fundamentals are not trend-based, but are about to enter a turning point opportunity to gradually return to normal from pessimism. Focus on targets: (1) Industrial plate companies: Shougang Co., Ltd. (000959), Huali Steel (000932), Nangang Co., Ltd. (600282), Taigang Stainless Steel (000825), Magang Co., Ltd. (600808), Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Xingang Co., Ltd. (600782), Angang Co., Ltd. (000898); (2) Special steel key companies: Yongjin Co., Ltd. (603995), CITIC Special Steel (000708), Fushun Special Steel (600399), Tunan Co., Ltd. (30 0855), Jiuli Special Materials (002318); (3) Building Materials Company: Fangda Special Steel (600507), Sangang Minguang (002110), Shaogang Songshan (000717); (4) Municipal Pipeline Materials Company: Xinxing Casting Pipe (0 00778), Jinzhou Pipeline (002443), Youfa Group (601686), Qinglong Pipe Industry (002457), Han Jianheshan (603616), Guotong Co., Ltd. (002205), Longquan Co., Ltd. (002671).
