Editor's note: This article is compiled from MIT Technology Review with authorization.
Soon, Moss Landing Power Plant will become the world's largest lithium battery project. There is a natural gas power plant in the Moss Landing port in CA, with two 500-foot chimneys, which are symbols of industry, and when the sun shines, it casts long shadows into the beautiful town by the sea.
If the state regulator signs the sentiment, then by the end of 2020, the power plant will become the world's largest lithium electronics project. The wind and solar energy in the California power grid have always been unbalanced, and the fluctuations are too large, and the battery factory can play a balance role.
The factory, with a scale of 300 megawatts, is one of four large lithium battery storage projects of Pacific Gas and Electric, the largest public utility in California. In late June, it applied to hope that the California Public Utilities Commission could approve the project. Once built, the battery factory can store a large amount of electricity, which is for 2,700 households per month. By the way, its storage capacity is equivalent to 0.0009% of California's annual electricity consumption.
Due to the price drop, renewable power generation has increased. Large lithium battery storage bases are being built around the world. The California project is just one of them. Tesla is also building a battery storage base in South Australia with a capacity of 100 megawatts. Everyone is becoming more and more optimistic. In the future, huge batteries will store wind and solar power, replacing more fossil fuel power plants.
Although the prospect looks beautiful, there is a problem that has not been solved yet. Batteries are too expensive and have not had a long lifespan, and experts believe that these shortcomings limit the role of batteries in the power grid. When renewable electricity increases, if you only rely on battery storage instead of allowing other low-carbon energy sources to contribute greater strength (such as nuclear energy, natural gas energy introduced with low-carbon technology), the ultimate cost will definitely be very high and cannot be borne.
small project
MIT and Argon National Laboratory 2016 pointed out in an analysis report that even in the best cases, today's battery storage technology has limited effect, which is only equivalent to a substitute for peak power plants. Peak power plants are generally small in size, and are now mainly driven by natural gas, which can operate continuously. When prices fall and demand increases, it can be quickly activated.
Form Energy co-founder Marco Ferrara believes that lithium batteries can economically compete with peak power plants in the next five years. Form Energy is a company spin-off from MIT, specializing in the development of grid storage batteries.
Marco Ferrara believes: "The gas peak power plant will die, and the lithium battery project is a good replacement."
Many new lithium battery projects that are about to be launched are originally intended to replace the peak power plant. There are two natural gas peak power plants in the California area, and the new lithium battery storage project is about replacing them.
In addition to this, there are other problems with the battery project. The 2016 report pointed out that if a large number of battery storage devices are added to the power grid, the revenue will decline sharply. The report believes that for flexible large coal-fired power plants or natural gas combined cycle power plants, combining battery storage devices with renewable power plants is not effective. After combining, the power plant can be started at any time and operate continuously, and the output power can be changed as needed.
Lithium battery is a disadvantage, not only that, but its lifespan is also limited. When wind power and solar power dry up, if you want to use batteries to make up for the gap, it is not ideal to make up for several days, weeks or even months.
The problem is particularly evident in California, as both wind and solar power will drop rapidly in the fall and winter months.
If renewable electricity accounts for 80% of California's electricity (half wind power, half solar power), then by the end of summer, the power generation will be greatly reduced. Report co-author Jesse Jenkins believes that this situation will bring a problem. When the proportion of renewable electricity in the grid reaches a high level, you need to generate electricity from a lot of wind and solar power plants and generate as much electricity as possible during peak hours, so that you can survive the long period of exhaustion.So, California needs a lot of batteries to store excess power in case of exhaustion.
California Dream
In the long run, these problems cannot be ignored by California. California has made plans to increase the proportion of clean energy to 50% by 2020, and the legislature even considers further increasing the proportion to 100% by 2045. The situation is complicated, and in January, regulators voted to close the last nuclear power plant in California, which generates 24% of Pacific Electric's energy supply. After the nuclear power plant is closed, California will rely more on renewable energy if it wants to achieve its goals.
Boston energy policy think tank Clean Air Task Force believes that in California, if the proportion of renewable electricity is to reach 80%, a large amount of residual power generation must be collected in the summer months, equivalent to 9.6 million megawatt-hours of stored electricity. If the specific gravity reaches 100%, 36.3 million megawatt hours are required to be stored.
Currently, the electricity stored in California is only 150,000 megawatt hours, mainly through hydropower storage, and only a small amount is stored with batteries.
If renewable electricity accounts for 80% of California's electricity, 8 million megawatt hours of residual electricity will need to be collected during peak summers. To produce so much recycled electricity and to store it, the cost is definitely astronomical. If the proportion is to be accounted for 50%, the cost per megawatt-hour of electricity is about US$49. If it is to reach 100%, the cost will rise to US$1,612.
This assumption is based on one premise: the price of lithium batteries has dropped by two-thirds compared to the current price.
If renewable electricity accounts for a considerable portion of the total electricity, the cost of California's energy system will definitely rise sharply. "Storage costs will become the main cost of the system. You need to build a huge storage machine that stores electricity in the middle of the year and releases it later. Because the investment is too large, it is not practical." The construction cost of
is too high, which will definitely lead to an increase in consumer electricity prices. "You have to stop and ask yourself, 'Will there be a public support?'" At the beginning of
html, Energy Environmental Science also pointed out in its report that if you want wind and solar power to account for 80% of the total U.S. electricity, there are two options. The first is to build a high-speed transmission system nationwide to balance the regenerated power generation within a range of hundreds of miles, and the second is to allow the entire system to store 12 hours of electricity.If calculated at the current price, it will cost at least $2.5 trillion to build a battery storage system of this size.
High price
Of course, it is possible to build cheaper and better grid storage systems, and researchers and startups are already studying various possibilities. Form Energy recently received an investment in Breakthrough Energy Ventures (its funded from Gates), and the company is developing water-sulfur flow batteries that last longer and cost only one-fifth of the cost of lithium batteries.
Ferrara modeling found that if the battery is successfully launched into the market, recycled power can account for 90% of the demand in most power grids, and the cost is only a little higher than today.
However, Ferrara believes that if you bet on such a battery breakthrough, the risk is quite high. Even if Form Energy or other companies launch products, the cost may increase a lot once it exceeds 90%. "The risk is that if you want to deeply decarbonize the electricity, the cost may rise to a very high level, making it unbearable for the public to continue to move towards the goal of zero carbon emissions," said Jenkins. Editor: Hao Pengcheng
