Oriental Securities Co., Ltd. Ye Shuhuai, Cai Qi, Zhou Han recently conducted research on Shede Wine Industry and released a research report "Control goods and support prices to accumulate growth, and be optimistic about elasticity after the storm". This report gave Shede Wine Industry buy rating , believing that its target price is 150.72 yuan, the current stock price is 137.65 yuan, and the expected increase is 9.5%.
Shede Wine Industry (600702)
Control prices to support the price to accumulate momentum, and the national layout is gradually deepening. Under the strategic guidance of "focusing on Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong and Henan, improving the northeast and northwest, and breaking through East and South China", Shede has established six core markets, and the layout of core markets outside the province has basically been completed, laying the foundation for national expansion. After Fosun took over, it promoted channel reform to help reshape channel confidence and develop its distribution system healthily. At the current time, the company's market outside the province still has a lot of room for growth. After experiencing the pain of the volume control policy, the inventory levels of several major single products are good, the price list is stable, and the slowdown in Q2 investment promotion gives future exchange growth potential. It is expected that the company will further radiate to the East China region based on the Taihu Lake market in the future and steadily advance the nationalization process. The future flexibility lies in: 1) Several core market momentum are still there, and the Q3 recovery is good; 2) Benevolent inventory and healthy channels reserve enough space for national inventory addition; 3) Non-main products can form effective support on the revenue side.
From the report, Fosun International 's financial pressure is controllable, and it is expected to have limited impact on Shede. 22H1 Fosun International has successively reduced its holdings in Hainan Mining , Qingdao Beer and other parts of equity. After entering September, Fosun Pharmaceutical , Jinhui Liquor, Yuyuan Co., Ltd., etc. were also subject to different degrees of reduction in holdings. The market is worried that due to short-term financial pressure, Fosun International may reduce its holdings and is willing to return funds. Observing Fosun International's current financial situation, it faces a small funding gap in the short term; but it may receive a loan of 15 billion yuan, and the cash gap can be filled by to . In addition, from the perspective of strategic planning, Shede Wine Industry has become the only listed wine company in Fosun International. Its long-term growth is worth looking forward to and is not expected to be easily transferred; from the perspective of transaction difficulty, Fosun International holds shares of Shede Group, and it is difficult to find a competitor in the short term, and the consideration cost is relatively high. Overall, we believe that the company is less likely to be cashed out, and Fosun International’s financial risks have limited impact.
's valuation fell to a low level, and we are optimistic about the upward elasticity in the future. We reviewed the stock prices of representative sub-high-end wine companies in the past few rounds of liquor bull markets, and focused on the elasticity of each target in the industry's increase fastest stage. We found that with the growth of volume and the explosion of the sub-high-end price band , we feel that the elasticity of the bull market continues to increase. From the perspective of dynamic valuation level, the company's current valuation level on September 30, 2022 has fallen back to the percentage of 18% within three years, and the current corresponding PEG level is only about 0.8 times. Shede already has a high long-term allocation value.
We maintain the forecast of the company's earnings per share of RMB 4.71, RMB 6.14 and RMB 7.72 respectively from 22 to 24. Combined with comparable companies, we give 32 times PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of RMB 150.72, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk warning: consumption upgrade is less than expected, market competition is intensifying, food safety incident , Fosun International's financial risks.
Securities Star Data Center calculates based on the research report data released in the past three years, China Merchants Securities Yu Jiaqi's research team has conducted in-depth research on the stock, with the average prediction accuracy in the past three years as high as 99.1%. It predicts that the attributable net profit in 2022 will be 1.575 billion yuan, and the predicted PE based on the current price conversion is 29.04.
latest profit forecast details are as follows:
A total of 30 institutions have given ratings in the stock in the past 90 days, 26 buy ratings and 4 increase holdings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days was 196.42. According to the financial report data in the past five years, Securities Star valuation analysis tool shows that Shede Wine Industry (600702) has excellent competitive moat, good profitability, and excellent revenue growth. Financial health. The stock has a good company index of 4.5 stars, a good price index of 2.5 stars, and a comprehensive index of 3.5 stars. (Indicators are for reference only, indicator range: 0 ~ 5 stars, maximum 5 stars)
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