Announcement of the National Bureau of Statistics on the final verification of GDP in 2020
According to the accounting and data release system of my country's GDP (GDP), annual GDP accounting includes two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification. Recently, according to the annual statistical report of the National Bureau of Statistics, the final financial accounts of the Ministry of Finance and the annual financial information of relevant departments, the National Bureau of Statistics conducted a final verification of the GDP data in 2020. The main results are as follows:
After final verification, in 2020, the total current GDP price was 101,356.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 241.9 billion yuan from the preliminary accounting; calculated based on the constant price of , an increase of 2.2% over the previous year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary accounting. The third industry and the data of each industry are shown in the attached table.
is hereby announced.
Attachment: Comparison of the final verification number of GDP in 2020 and the preliminary accounting number
Attachment: China GDP Annual accounting statement
National Bureau of Statistics
December 17, 2021
Attachment:
Attachment:
China GDP annual accounting statement
1. Annual GDP accounting overview
1. Basic concept
GDP is the final result of production activities of all permanent units in a country within a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of national economic accounting and is also an important indicator to measure a country's economic status and development level. There are three methods for
GDP accounting, namely production method , income method and expenditure method . The three methods reflect the achievements of national economic production activities from different angles. The production method is a method to eliminate the value of intermediate goods and services invested in the production process from the value of goods and services created in the production process and obtain added value. The calculation formula for the added value of production methods in various industries of the national economy is as follows: added value = total output - intermediate input. Add the added value of the production method in various industries of the national economy to obtain the GDP of the production method. The income method is to calculate the results of production activities from the perspective of income forming in the production process. According to this calculation method, the added value consists of four parts: employee remuneration, net production tax, , fixed asset depreciation and operating surplus . The calculation formula is: added value = labor remuneration + net production tax + fixed asset depreciation + operating surplus. The sum of the income law added value of various industries in the national economy is equal to the income law GDP. The expenditure method is a method of calculating GDP from the perspective of the final use of the results of production activities. The final use includes three parts: final consumption expenditure, total capital formation and net export of goods and services.
constant price GDP is to convert GDP calculated at the current price into value calculated at a fixed base period price, thereby eliminating the influence of price change factors so that the values of different periods can be compared.
1.2 Accounting scope
1.2.1 Production scope The production scope of
GDP accounting includes the following four parts: First, the production of goods or services provided by the producer or prepared to other units; Second, the self-sufficiency production of all goods used for their own final consumption or fixed capital formation ; Third, the self-sufficiency production of knowledge carrier products carried out by the producer for their own final consumption or fixed capital formation, but does not include similar activities engaged in by the household department; Fourth, the housing services provided by their own housing, and the self-sufficiency production of family and personal services provided by hiring paid family service personnel. The scope of production does not include unpaid family and personal services, natural activities without unit control (such as the natural growth of wild, uncultured forests, wild fruits or wild berries, and the natural increase in the number of fish in the high seas).
1.2.2 Scope of production activities
GDP Scope of production activities includes all permanent units with economic interest center within the economic territory of China. The annual GDP data in this report are national data calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics and do not include GDP data for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan Province.
1.3 Accounting unit
GDP accounting mainly uses legal entities as accounting units. In the accounting, they are divided into different industries based on the main activities engaged in by the legal entities, and the added value of each industry is calculated separately, and the added value of each industry is summarized to obtain GDP.
1.4 Accounting steps
According to the requirements of GDP accounting timeliness, China's annual GDP must be accounted for twice. The first is the preliminary GDP accounting and the second is the final GDP verification. Generally speaking, the final verification results will change compared to the preliminary accounting.
1.4.1 Preliminary accounting
Before 2015, my country's quarterly GDP accounting adopted the cumulative accounting method, and the preliminary GDP accounting for quarters 1-4 is the preliminary annual GDP accounting. Starting from the third quarter of 2015, my country's quarterly GDP accounting has been changed to quarterly accounting methods, that is, accounting for the first quarter, second quarter, third quarter and fourth quarter GDP data respectively, and then adding the GDP data for each quarter to obtain the preliminary annual GDP accounting. The preliminary annual GDP accounting will be completed before January 20 of the following year.
1.4.2 Final verification
annual GDP final verification is generally completed before January of the following year. The final verification of annual GDP can utilize more comprehensive and reliable basic information, including the National Bureau of Statistics’ professional annual report data, departmental annual financial statistics data, financial final accounts data, etc. During the final verification process, the added value and GDP of each industry are mainly calculated based on these data using the production method or revenue method.
1.5 Legal basis and institutional provisions
GDP accounting strictly complies with the provisions of the " Statistical Law of the People's Republic of China ". At present, China's GDP is calculated in accordance with the requirements of the "China National Economic Accounting System (2016)", which adopts the basic accounting principles, content and methods of the United Nations "National Accounting System (2008)".
1.6 Confidentiality
In accordance with the provisions of Chapter 1, Article 9 of the Statistical Law of the People's Republic of China, statistical agencies and statistical personnel shall keep confidential state secrets, trade secrets and personal information known in statistical work.
National economic accounting personnel strictly keep the undisclosed professional statistical data and administrative record data used when conducting GDP accounting, and strictly keep the current GDP data before the GDP accounting data is released.
1.7 Domestic users who need
annual GDP data are mainly government departments, research institutions, universities, industry associations, media and the public. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics regularly provides China's annual GDP data to international organizations such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Asian Development Bank, and the Asian Development Bank.
2. Annual GDP accounting method
2.1 Classification system
In annual GDP accounting, industry classification is based on China National Economic Industry Classification Standard and the tertiary industry classification standard, and two classification methods are adopted.
The first classification is the national economic industry classification, which adopts the "National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2017)" promulgated by the national standards management department in 2017. Two-level classification is adopted in actual accounting.
The first level classification is based on the categories in the national economic industry classification, and is divided into 11 industries including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, transportation, warehousing and postal industries, accommodation and catering, finance, real estate, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and other services. Among them, the industry includes three categories: mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply; other services include scientific research and technical services, water conservancy, environmental and public facilities management, residents' services, repair and other services, education, health and social work, culture, sports and entertainment industries, public management, social security and social organizations, etc. The second-level classification is based on the first-level classification and is refined into a major industry category. The difference between the industry classification of the preliminary accounting of annual GDP and the industry classification of the final verification of annual GDP is mainly due to the different degree of refinement of the second-level classification.
The second classification is the tertiary industry classification. According to the "HTM1 tertiary industry classification regulations " revised by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2018, it is divided into the primary industry, the secondary industry and the tertiary industry .The primary industry refers to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (excluding agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery majors and auxiliary activities); the secondary industry refers to mining (excluding mining majors and auxiliary activities), manufacturing (excluding metal products, machinery and equipment repair), electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries, and construction industries; the tertiary industry, namely service industries, referring to other industries except the primary and secondary industries (excluding international organizations).
2.2 Source
The preliminary accounting of annual GDP adopts quarterly GDP accounting methods and data sources. Here only the sources of data for the final verification of annual GDP are introduced.
1 is national statistical survey data, which refers to various annual report data obtained by statistical surveys implemented by the national statistical system, including: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, real estate, and service industries above scale, household survey data, annual report data on population and labor wage statistics, and price statistics data.
2 is the annual financial statistics of the department, which refers to the annual financial statistics of the industry collected by the National Bureau of Statistics, which are uniformly formulated by the National Bureau of Statistics, and the relevant administrative departments and some state-owned enterprises, such as the annual financial statistics of the affiliated enterprises or public institutions summarized by the Ministry of Transport, the Commission of Health, and Sinopec Group.
Third is financial final accounts information, which refers to the financial revenue and expenditure final accounts compiled by the Ministry of Finance, as well as the revenue and expenditure final accounts information of administrative and public institutions affiliated to the central departments, etc.
4 is the administrative record information of the administrative department, which mainly includes: the State Administration of Taxation, People's Bank of China , China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission , CSRC and other administrative departments, such as the People's Bank of China's domestic and foreign currency credit receipts and expenditure information of the State Administration of Taxation, etc.
2.3 Accounting method
The preliminary accounting method of annual GDP is the same as the quarterly GDP accounting method, so I will not repeat it here. The following describes the final verification method for annual GDP.
2.3.1 Calculation method for current price added value
The current price added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery is calculated by the production method, while the current price added value of the remaining industries is calculated by the income method.
2.3.2 Calculation method of constant price added value
: The industry's constant price added value is calculated by the fixed base period method. Currently, the base period is changed every 5 years. The base period of constant price added value from 2016 to 2020 is 2015.
annual constant price GDP accounting mainly uses the price index reduction method and the extrapolation method of mass index.
2.3.2.1 Price index reduction method
uses the relevant price index to directly reduce the current price added value, calculate the unchanged price added value, and the calculation formula is:
An unchanged price added value in a certain industry = the current price added value of the industry ÷ The price index of the industry
2.3.2.2 The extrapolation method of mass index
uses the growth rate of relevant mass indexes to calculate the growth rate of the unchanging value added value, and then uses the unchanging value added value added last year and the estimated growth rate of the unchanging value added value added in the industry to calculate the current period. The calculation formula is:
The unchanging value added value of a certain industry = the unchanging value added value of the industry last year × (1 + the growth rate of the unchanging value added value of the industry)
Among them, the growth rate of the unchanging value added value added in the current period is determined based on the growth rate of the relevant material index (such as transportation turnover, practitioners, etc.), as well as the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of the unchanging value added value added in previous years and the growth rate of the relevant material index.
3. Annual GDP data revision
3.1 Necessity of revision
0 The preliminary annual GDP calculation is very time-consuming and is generally announced about 20 days after the year. At this time, since a large amount of annual financial data cannot meet the requirements of annual GDP accounting in time, the basic data based on the preliminary figures of annual GDP are monthly and quarterly data, and the annual GDP data calculated based on this has a large calculating component. Afterwards, as basic information continues to increase, especially annual financial information is submitted one after another, GDP data should be revised in a timely manner according to common practices of various countries.
3.2 Revision procedure
According to the latest reformed GDP accounting and data release system regulations of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's annual GDP accounting is divided into two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification. The final verification is a revision of the preliminary accounting data. After national economic census is conducted, new basic data that has a great impact on GDP data, or calculation methods and classification standards have changed, the annual GDP historical data must also be revised.
4. Annual GDP data quality assessment
4.1 Evaluation of basic data
0 For the statistical data and administrative record data used in GDP accounting, the relevant professional statistical departments and administrative management departments will check their quality to ensure that the data reasonably reflects the actual situation of economic development. When the GDP accounting department obtains these basic data, it will again check the completeness, comparability and accuracy of the data to ensure that these data comply with the concepts and requirements of GDP accounting.
4.2 Evaluation of accounting methods
In GDP accounting, the GDP accounting department will revise China's annual GDP accounting method based on the actual situation of the growing economy and the continuously improved international national economic accounting standards to ensure the rationality of the accounting method.
4.3 Evaluation of accounting results
After calculating annual GDP data, the coordination of GDP and its sub-data, GDP and other accounting data, GDP and related professional statistical data and departmental statistical data must be checked to ensure that the GDP data and other major related data are coordinated and matched.
4.4 Comparability of data
4.4.1 International comparability
"China National Economic Accounting System (2016)" adopts the basic accounting principles, content and methods of the United Nations "National Accounting System (2008)", so GDP data is internationally comparable.
4.4.2 Time Series Comparability
After the nationwide census or calculation methods and classification standards have changed, it not only recalculates the GDP data for the year, but also revises the GDP historical data. Therefore, the published annual GDP data time series since 1952 is comparable.
5. Annual GDP data release
5.1 Release time
0 The preliminary calculation of annual GDP is generally released around January 20 of the following year, and the final verification of annual GDP is released no later than January of the following year.
5.2 Release method
Annual GDP preliminary accounting is released at the annual national economic operation press conference, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics (www.stats.gov.cn), and the "China Economic Prosperity Monthly Report"; the final verification of annual GDP is released in the form of an announcement of the National Bureau of Statistics website (www.stats.gov.cn). At the same time, the final verification of annual GDP is also announced in the "China Statistics Summary" and " China Statistics Yearbook " of the following year; the National Statistics Database (http://data.stats.gov.cn) will be updated simultaneously.
column editor: Zhang Wu Text editor: Dong Siyun
Source: Author: Xinhua News Agency
