Please take a look. This is the ranking of the growth rate of GDP, the world's major powers in the first half of 2022.
GDP growth rate has always been the leader, ranking eighth, with the 2.5% GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was overtaken by the United States. You should know that China's GDP growth rate has often crushed them with an advantage of more than twice in recent years, and this time it was the first time that it has been overtaken in forty years.
So why has the growth rate of China's economic development slowed down?
Why is India developing so fast?
Why is the economic growth rate of Europe and the United States starting to become stronger again?
If you only look at the data, you will definitely be deceived by it.
And the truth behind this data will make you truly understand what the status of global economy is at this stage.
GDP can be faked, but import and export data cannot be faked.
As the world's largest trading partner of major powers, China's trade data with us basically represents the country's foreign trade data, so from these data, we can see the "story" behind the GDP growth rate of various countries.
Let’s look at India first.
From January to August this year, China's exports to India increased significantly by 33.9%, while imports shrank by 36.7%. Customs data shows that what we import India mainly includes mineral products, chemical products, textiles and raw materials. The sharp shrinkage of these products means that India's manufacturing industry is also shrinking sharply, and the production end is shrinking, that is, the consumer end has driven India's rapid growth GDP. India's population is almost close to 1.4 billion, and the corresponding consumer market has brought infinite possibilities to its development.
EU and major member states Germany and France are very similar to India. From January to August this year, China's exports to the EU increased by 18.4%. China's imports to the EU increased by 6.2%. It is obvious that the EU's manufacturing industry is also shrinking, and it is not difficult to understand. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is in conflict, Russia is dead, and the manufacturing industry in Europe is expensive, closing down and transferring. Therefore, the driving force that drives EU economic growth also comes from the consumer side.
Let’s look at the United States again, China’s exports to the United States increased by 12.2%. China's imports to the United States increased by 1.3%. The data is better, and there is no negative growth in China's imports to the United States.
Japan's data is also in the same situation as the above countries, and the manufacturing industry shrinks.
So why are the manufacturing industries of major powers in the world shrinking?
On the one hand, this is due to the epidemic, and on the other hand, it is because of the rising prices of global international bulk products, coupled with the rapid increase in Federal Reserve rate hikes, production efficiency is reduced, production costs are increasing, and enterprises have reduced scale and reduced investment. Why is
still so prosperous in consumption?
because of high inflation. If you can buy 2 bags of rice for 100 yuan in the morning and only 1 bag of rice for 100 yuan in the evening, what would you do? We must be desperately trying to buy and stock up. This is the prosperity of the consumer market in those countries with high inflation now, but this is unsustainable, short-term, and the result of overdrawing residents' future consumption potential.
Look at
Some time ago, International Monetary Fund 's forecast for the GDP growth of major economies in 2022:
Just look at this data, I feel that in 2022, the economic situation of various countries is not bad, especially the UK, the economic growth rate reached 3.6%, but another data was not released, that is, the inflation rate. If the inflation rate is announced, the economic growth rates of European and American countries such as the United Kingdom will be uncomparable, and it should be negative growth.
Although our growth rate is not as good as before, it is still valuable in this era when the world is in a bad state. You should know that our GDP is calculated on the production side, and each yuan of GDP corresponds to real products and assets. The GDP of most countries such as Europe, the United States, India and other countries is calculated based on the consumer side, which is very watery.For example, India has revised GDP statistics rules many times, even cow dung is considered GDP; the same is true for the United States, among which there is a virtual rent, which means that even if you live in your house yourself, GDP statistics still need to be calculated according to the market rent price and include GDP. If the GDP accounting method is calculated according to the United States, China's GDP is currently easy to go hand in hand with the United States. Now the United States is trying hard to get stuck in our manufacturing industry, but we are still developing very rapidly. China accounts for more than 30% of the global manufacturing industry, and this advantage is still expanding.
