This international comment by Uncle Mu is to analyze the Russian-Ukrainian war. On August 6, the British intelligence community announced an assessment: the Russian army is transferring its troops from Donbas to the Uranus region.

This international commentary by Uncle Mu is to analyze the Russian-Ukrainian war.

It is estimated that after Russia launched the Russian-Ukrainian war at the end of February, no one would have thought that the war would continue until now.

Many people believe that Russia, as the second military power in the world, will definitely take down the Ukrainian capital Kiev in the shortest time, and then control the entire Ukrainian situation with lightning speed. Ukrainian President Zelensky's regime will soon collapse. He himself will either flee to Western countries outside Ukraine, or become the same as former Prime Minister Saddam.

But reality has slapped many people in the face. The fact is that it is now the 6th month of the Russian-Ukraine War. Not only has Ukraine not been defeated, but it has started a counterattack in recent times. Not only has Russia not been able to completely occupy Ukraine, but it has even become a problem whether it can be defended in some areas it is now occupied.

Uncle Mu noticed that combined with the evaluation of the British intelligence department, the Ukrainian media analyzed this and believed that -

This shows that the third phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war has arrived, and this stage contains the opportunity for Ukraine to defeat Russia.

According to the media, the first stage was Russia trying to defeat Ukraine with blitzkrieg , but it was obviously failed.

The second stage was Russia's active adjustment of combat direction, from attacking multiple points in the entire Ukraine to mainly attack Donbas and the southern region, with the main goal of "liberation" the remaining areas of Donbas as its main goal. But operations at this stage had stalled a few weeks ago, one reason being that the U.S.-backed Ukraine-based Hymas posed a huge threat to Russian military logistics, resulting in insufficient power on the frontline of the Russian military.

The third stage is now: the focus of the war has now turned to southern Ukraine.

Here Ukrainians started their counterattack, mainly targeting the Russian-occupied southern cities, or clearing out the periphery, so that Russia had to draw troops from eastern Ukraine and other areas such as Donbas to deal with the war situation in southern Ukraine.

This shows from one aspect that the Russian army is now feeling a little careless, and it also shows that Russia's defensive power over the occupied areas is in a relatively weak period.

Uncle Mu noticed:

Ukrainian media believes that this state of the Russian army is a window of opportunity for Ukraine, and may even be a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Obviously, the third phase will not end in a short period of time. As Russian soldiers drive from the eastern Ukrainian region to Khlsong and other places in the south, the Ukrainian army and the Russian army will fight more fiercely in the local area. Will it be replicated in the tragedy of the Wudong region?

For Ukraine, the reason why the current situation is regarded as beneficial to its own side is mainly that Ukraine has received greater Western support, and that some layouts in the southern Ukraine were better in the early stage than in the eastern Ukraine. For example, using Western equipment such as Himas to target, it destroyed many Russian military logistics supply lines, such as some bridges. These will have a positive impact on the Ukrainian army in the more violent third phase of the Ukrainian battle in the future.

In addition, Uncle Mu also learned that most international analysts and military experts believe that the next few months will indeed determine the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war. And Western weapons are only one decisive factor.

During this stage, the performance of the Ukrainian and Russian troops will have a direct impact on this result.

In other words, even with the support of Western weapons, how the Ukrainians deal with the scorched earth policy from the Russian army that relies on manpower and artillery in eastern Ukraine is also a test.

After all, the West has not provided a large number of fighter jets and other equipment so far, and the Ukrainian army still lacks a killer weapon in resisting Russian missiles and bombing. Therefore, how the third stage develops is not necessarily as optimistic as what the Ukrainians say.

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