Screenshot of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism Website
Hong Kong "China Review News Agency" published an editorial article on August 1, pointing out that the mainland announced that "in view of the current cross-strait relations, it has decided to suspend the pilot program of 47 cities Hong Kong residents' personal travel to Taiwan from August 1, 2019." This is like a bolt from the blue for Taiwanese tourism operators. Lin Mingzhen, the governor of Nantou, who relies on the deep tourism industry, shouted "It's over." "China Review News Agency" believes that the message conveyed by the mainland through this action of economic sanctions is something that Taiwan must pay attention to.
According to mainland China data, 2.695,615 passengers to Taiwan in 2018, with a negative growth of 1.35%. Among them, there were 1.07 million individual tourists to Taiwan. From August this year to January next year's election for about half a year, Taiwan's tourism industry is estimated to reduce by about 700,000 free travelers, and the loss of tourism output value is about NT$20 billion, which may also reduce, excluding group tourists, which will be a heavy blow to Taiwan's tourism industry. Especially compared with the peak of mainland tourists during Ma Ying-jeou's administration, the gap is even greater than that of about 4 million people a year.
The loss of Taiwan's overall GDP to zero in person tourists may not be too great. It is worth noting that the message conveyed by the mainland's action. There are three points worth noting:
first. In the past, mainland China limited the number of mainland tourists to Taiwan before the election or special sensitive time periods, and almost no such public announcement was used. Li Qiyue, a senior tourism industryman and chairman of Taiwan Innovation Travel Agency, even said that this is the first time that the mainland has officially released a message of suspending mainland tourists from Taiwan through official channels. This means that the mainland hopes that this information can be spread publicly and attract attention, that is, to achieve the effect of sanctions.
Second, the official announcement of the Cross-Strait Tourism Exchange Association on July 31, the main text is only 40 words, and the beginning is "In view of the current cross-strait relations." This is clearly stated that the call for a pass to the mainland tourists who travel to Taiwan is due to cross-strait relations. The mainland has not beaten around the bush and directly expressed its dissatisfaction with the cross-strait policy of the Tsai Ing-wen authorities, so it is necessary to suspend personal travel for mainland tourists, which is like a solemn statement to the Tsai authorities. Moreover, it is because of the suspension of "current cross-strait relations", and it will only recover if cross-strait relations improve. If they do not improve, they may not come back.
Third, in the past, the reduction of mainland tourists before the election in mainland China was partly due to the fact that Taiwan’s election was too hot and society was also more passionate, and they were afraid that mainland tourists would go around in Taiwan and would have trouble. So in the past, sometimes the number of mainland tourists was reduced in three months before the voting, and now there is still half a year left before the voting date on January 11 next year. It is unprecedented to let individual tourists return to zero for tourists half a year ago, so the purpose of the mainland reducing tourists this time is obviously different from the past.
As for why the mainland reduced personal tour this time, rather than the mainland tourist group that they often cut before choosing before the past? Group tourists should be more concentrated in consumption, such as tour buses, restaurants, shopping stations, hotels, etc., which are fixed in one-stop, with a large impact and are mostly concentrated in the central and southern regions, including many economically poor villages. Individual travel, also known as individual tourists, travel, eat, live and buy everywhere, and the decrease in individual tourists will not affect the livelihoods of specific operators and people in Taiwan.
As for why "current cross-strait relations" will lead to the return of personal travel by mainland tourists? It is not difficult to interpret that the Tsai Ing-wen administration has been vigorously "anti-China" and playing the "American card" for the election since this year. Looking back to January this year, including the United States' formulation of the "Taiwan Guarantee Law" and the "North American Affairs Coordination Committee" renamed the "Taiwan American Affairs Committee". Two batches of arms sales to Taiwan in April and July this year, as well as Tsai Ing-wen's recent "visiting the United States", transiting through New York, , Denver , and calling herself "Taiwan President" outside has caused extreme dissatisfaction. In addition to protesting to the United States, Beijing has recently announced sanctions on US companies supplying supplies for US$2.223.56 billion in July, for the US arms sales, including M1A2T tanks and needle-punch missiles. The rest are still in talks with the United States.
Mainland sanctions on US arms sales to Taiwan represent the inwillingness of foreign forces to interfere in cross-strait relations, especially when external intervention has led to the violent and expanding Hong Kong's protests, the mainland's attack on Taiwan this time is more meaningful. Compared with the recent overwhelming "anti-China" by the DPP, the mainland side's position on suspending the personal travel of mainland tourists this time is a very small move, which should be a warning nature. It reminds the DPP and also reminds the Kuomintang, which is planning a campaign political opinion, to face up to the importance of cross-strait relations.
Another thing worth noting is that Taiwan's 2020 election enthusiasm has risen sharply. Tsai Ing-wen won the primary election because of the Hong Kong incident. She is also expected to adopt the same model to increase the opposition with the mainland, hype populism, and seek re-election. If the mainland blocks the personal travel of mainland tourists at this time, it will definitely be hyped by the DPP, just like the past "Zhou Tzuyu incident"; the mainland still introduces this policy at this time means that the main axis of Beijing 's policy to Taiwan has somehow broken away from the thinking line tied to Taiwan's election. This development is worthy of deep thought in the court and the opposition in Taiwan.
Editor: Chengzhi
