Recently, China Innovation Airlines and Leapmotor Car have been listed on Hong Kong stock , but there is a big gap with the market's past expectations. The stocks of the two companies not only broke the issue price during the trading session, but also fell almost halfway through the two trading days after their listing, which was beyond the expectations of many people.
is the power battery company ranked third in China, second only to CATL and BYD , China Innovation Airlines is also very popular in the domestic market and has become the best second choice for many vehicle companies outside CATL.
As for Leapmotor, it has performed well among a number of new car companies, and the upward momentum is also very obvious. These two companies with , , whose fundamentals are are not bad, are worth studying why the stock prices have such performance.
| Can't escape the embarrassment of no one's interest
For vehicle companies that are now actively undergoing electrification transformation, the importance of batteries is self-evident.
However, according to the prospectus results released by China Innovation Airlines, the subscription multiple of its public offering is 0.21 times, which means that nearly 80% of the remaining public offering shares are ignored. The final issue price of
is only HK$38 per share, which is the lower limit of the IPO price of HK$38-HK$51 per share; after deducting underwriting expenses, commissions and estimated expenses, the net proceeds are approximately HK$9.864 billion.
In the first half of 2022, CATL's market share in China exceeded 50% and its global market share exceeded 30%. Whether from the perspective of supply chain security or from the perspective of product bargaining, OEMs have a very strong impulse to find a second battery supplier for themselves.
This gives companies like Zhongxin Airlines huge room for growth. After all, unlike manufacturers such as BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech , and Honeycomb Energy, third-party battery companies can better meet the expectations of all parties in the market and also dispel the concerns of vehicle companies.
In order to quickly expand the market, accelerating the layout of production bases at home and even around the world will become the top priority for battery companies.
Currently, Zhongchuang Airlines is expanding its production capacity at a high speed, with six domestic production bases under it, with a construction capacity of more than 200GWh. It is expected that the effective production capacity will be approximately 35GWh and 90GWh in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
At the same time, from 2019 to 2021, China Innovation Airlines' net profits were -156 million yuan, -18 million yuan and 112 million yuan respectively. The biggest factor behind being able to turn losses into profits in 2021 is the government subsidy of 365 million yuan.
So in this case, seeking to list on the Hong Kong stock market is the greatest guarantee that can inject a steady stream of momentum into the company's rapid expansion.
| In addition to the worrying Zero-Pony
, the situation of LePony , which was listed on the Hong Kong stock market on the eve of National Day, is even worse. Not only did its financing amount not meet expectations, its stock price was nearly halved in two days of listing.
Leapmotor, which has a price of HK$48 per share as the issue price, had already broken the issue price on the day of listing. The stock price fell by 33.54% on the first day; and on the second day, Leapmotor's stock price continued to fall, and fell by 22.26% on the same day.
Leapmotor Automobile's stock price has fallen by 48% in just two days, and its market value has evaporated by more than HK$30 billion.
and Zhongchuang Airlines are different from that of China Innovation Airlines, Leapmotor is far from being able to make profits. From 2019 to 2021, Leapmotor achieved net profits of 112 million yuan, 319.6 million yuan and 1.388 billion yuan respectively.
Leapmotor has lost 1.319 billion yuan in the first half of this year, almost the same as the total loss last year.
Among the new domestic forces, Leapmotor has performed excellently in sales in the past two years. By launching cost-effective smart electric vehicles to the market, Zero-Player delivered 76,563 vehicles from January to August 2022, of which 12,525 were delivered in August, ranking second in the new car manufacturing force.
with sales second only to Nezha Auto, helping Leapmotor become one of the most dazzling dark horses in the market, but from the perspective of product positioning or company profitability, Leapmotor still needs to do a lot.
Currently, the main force of Leapmotor sales is a pure electric micro car T03, with a range of only 403km and a price starting from only 68,900 yuan.
This model is also one of the few models in the same class that are equipped with L2 intelligent assisted driving system. However, such a model not only cannot help Leapmotor turn losses into profits in the gross profit margin of bicycles, but also has the important task of realizing the upward development of Leapmotor brand.
Recently, Leapmotor released a new generation flagship model with a price range of 193,800 to 286,800 yuan, and the intention to achieve product upward and brand upward is very obvious.
However, whether it can achieve better sales results without leading intergenerational technology in a fiercely competitive market and take advantage of the trend to lead the company to achieve positive gross profit margin of bicycles, remains to be tested by market sales.
| Hong Kong stocks may no longer be a good choice
For domestic companies, Hong Kong stocks may be one of the few choices now.
For the heavy asset industry like car manufacturing, a large amount of funds are needed to build system capabilities in the early stage. This makes it difficult to make profits even if it is as strong as Tesla in the early stages of its establishment. Once it is not profitable, it means it is difficult to list and raise funds in the domestic capital market.
As for financing in the United States, considering the current Sino-US relations and the situation of Chinese stocks listed in the United States, even if the threshold for IPO of US stocks is very low, its attractiveness to domestic companies is no longer as good as before. The best explanation is that Wei Xiaoli and a number of Chinese stocks listed in the United States have returned to the Hong Kong stock market.
So in this case, the listing threshold is lower than that in the domestic market and has no international environmental impact, the Hong Kong stock market has become the first choice for domestic companies to seek overseas listing.
For many domestic startups that have received foreign capital investment in the early stage, the free flow of foreign exchange in the Hong Kong market is something that the domestic capital market cannot achieve in the short term.
However, compared with the two markets of China and the United States, the Hong Kong stock market is much weaker than the two markets of China and the United States in terms of liquidity and valuation.
As a large number of Chinese stocks have returned to Hong Kong stocks, it is necessary to put a big question mark on whether the Hong Kong capital market itself can have enough funds to undertake the financing and listing of a large number of Chinese companies in Hong Kong.
For domestic companies, in addition to Hong Kong stocks, in addition to being recognized by regulatory authorities, compared with the rush to list on the Hong Kong stock market, Singapore and European national securities markets are also target markets worth considering.
In fact, in order to completely solve the related problems, the most important thing is to lower the threshold of the domestic market and keep some high-quality and potential enterprises in China, so that Chinese people can enjoy the dividends brought by these companies during the rapid growth process.
This puts forward relatively high requirements for our regulatory authorities: it is not an easy task to screen out potential companies when companies generally have not achieved profits.
In addition, for startups that accept foreign capital investment, how to freely exit foreign capital is also a new course required for foreign exchange supervision.
In addition to the capital market, we also need to be wary of the current trend of pursuing new energy vehicles. For those companies that cannot make themselves self-produce, they should shift their focus from simply pushing up sales to increasing corporate profits, and pursue gross profit margins to positive or even the company's full profits to positive as soon as possible.
Relying solely on the capital market to transfusion and seek future profits, a relatively traditional model may not be able to be able to do so.
