On October 25, the Saudi Future Investment Initiative (FII) summit, known as "Davos in the Desert", will open in Riyadh . The annual event, which has been held since 2017, usually attracts politicians and business giants from around the world, but unlike previous years, Saudi Arabia decided not to invite U.S. officials this year because it did not want the summit to be a political platform.
This is the latest progress in the ups and downs of US-Saudi relations - the "OPEC +" decision to cut production in early October, and the United States' many subsequent calls from the air are considered to be the new bottom of bilateral relations between the two countries.
A few months ago, when US President Biden visited Saudi Arabia for the first time after taking office, the media reported a lot about his "intimate blow" with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed. Unfortunately, this famous photo has now become a footnote to the irony of reality. Rising U.S. oil prices threaten Democrats' hope of maintaining control over the two houses after the November midterm elections. The Biden administration has invested a lot of political capital to discourage Saudi Arabia and its allies from reducing production, but less than a month left before the midterm elections, Mohammed gave Biden a blow.
U.S. President Biden urged to turn Saudi Arabia into a "untouchable state" before taking office, but he still embarked on a reluctant "pleading visit". However, this "face-slapping" visit did not lead to an expected increase in oil production, which also fell into the hands of Democratic opponents, who said that the Saudis were "royal betrayers who misled and deceived the US president."
However, for Saudi Arabia, all this seems not that important.
"will not break"
On October 5, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia , and non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as Russia, decided to reduce production significantly from November this year, reducing monthly output by 2 million barrels per day based on August production.
The United States said that the production cuts will push up Russia's oil revenues. Saudi Arabia "designed" the production cuts for political reasons in support of Russia and accused Riyadh of forcing other members of "OPEC+" to support the move. But Saudi Arabia strongly denied it. Saudi King Salman on October 16 again emphasized that Saudi Arabia is working hard to promote stability and balance in the oil market.
Salman's comments have been supported by the "OPEC+" member states such as the UAE, Iraq , and Kuwait . UAE Energy Minister Suhair Mazruy wrote on a social platform, "I want to clarify that the latest decision of OPEC+ has been unanimously approved, purely a technical decision, without any political intentions."
In his speech to the Saudi Shura Committee (Consultation Meeting), Salman denied supporting Russia's special military action against Ukraine and urged the Saudi government to become a peaceful mediator between Russia and Ukraine. In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed did mediate a deal to exchange prisoners of war last month. Just after OPEC+ announced the reduction of production, Mohammed also spoke with Ukrainian President , Zelensky, announcing providing US$400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Visual China Picture
US Secretary of State Blinken emphasized in his speech on October 13 that Biden has been trying to "re-adjust" his relations with Saudi Arabia for two years after he took office. Blinken said that this process will continue and only serve one goal: "The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia must advance our interests more effectively."
Blinken's words may leave some room for interpretation: the current low point of the United States and Saudi relations represents a crack, but not a break. So far, although many Democrats have responded strongly, the Biden administration has not introduced any threatening targeted measures. "The most likely reaction is what we have seen - politicians' tough wording statements."
, an analyst at Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting firm, also told the media that if the Biden administration follows the advice of some Democratic opponents, "it may break the already worrying US-Saudi relations, which in turn will put more upward pressure on oil prices." "
In any case, Saudi officials are still optimistic that the relationship with Washington will withstand the current turmoil. "I don't think this relationship will break down." "Saudi Foreign Minister Jubaier said in an interview with CNN on October 12, "This relationship is very strong and far from the so-called 'breakdown'. "
has never been a "good ally"
Strictly speaking, the United States and Saudi Arabia have never been ally, and the two countries have never signed a joint defense agreement or a formal ally treaty. For decades, the US-Saudi relations have been largely transactional. Saudi Arabia can use its influence in OPEC to keep oil production and prices to a level that satisfies the United States. In return for ensuring stable global oil supply, successive U.S. governments have basically supported Saudi Arabia politically, sold advanced weapons to it, and provided military assistance to neighboring Iraq when it threatened Saudi security.
The promise of oil for security has formed this seemingly impossible partnership. The low point of the US-Saudi bilateral relations today is not the worst time, the Arab oil embargo led by Saudi Arabia in the 1970s tml1 "9/11" incident and the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq were both turbulent times in the history of bilateral relations. But the tension between the United States and Saudi Arabia has been "resolved behind closed doors" over the past few decades and rarely spread to the public sphere. Now, fragments of intimate relations have been further amplified by social platforms.
What’s different today is that the debate on the future of US-Saudi relations is under the background of changes in regional geopolitical reality. Unlike the 1970s or the early 2000s, this evolution of bilateral relations occurs in the strategic vacuum of the United States - as the strategic focus shifts, Washington no longer conveys a clear commitment to security and stability in the Middle East.
"If the U.S.-Gulf relations do not have a clear grand strategic goal, experts, journalists and officials can all be free to fill the gap. "What will appear in the future is a politicized and emotional narrative and a spiral of opposition to this narrative that creates expectations and pressures - especially in the United States - that policymakers ultimately need to respond to it." "
Saudi Arabia is very clear that the United States is trying hard to curb all political and economic means of Russia. Saudi Arabia claims that production cuts are in its own interests, which is indeed true to some extent, because in the short term, the upcoming global economic recession of may indicate a further decline in oil prices. However, Saudi Arabia's courage to take the US's discrimination also shows that this moment is approaching Russia and Saudi Arabia will not lose any losses on national security issues.
"Although the consequences that Riyadh may face in the OPEC+ production cuts are still unknown, excessive reaction will only accelerate Saudi Arabia's efforts to diversify military relations, not only with China and Russia, but also with France, the United Kingdom, India and Pakistan, and even with Brazil and South Africa. "You have to remember that the United States has never provided Saudi Arabia with the latest equipment anyway. "
" The Middle East in the Post-American era" has arrived?
The US withdrawal from the Middle East and supports regional "agents", leaving a gap that competitors are willing to fill, especially the failed Syrian policy in the West created opportunities for Russia to return to the Middle East in 2015. At the same time, the US once partners in the Middle East can only support themselves and find a way out for security and stability. More importantly, while promoting the Gulf partners to take over more responsibilities in the region, the US also arrogantly expects them to promote the so-called "freedom ideals and values" on its behalf, which also makes the United States much less attractive than before.
"In recent months, officials and policy makers in the Middle East have been asking me what the West represents in Ukraine. They do not believe in the differences between the East and the West, authoritarian and liberalism - this is the core of the new war narrative." Andreas Krieg, a scholar in Middle East issues at King's University in London, recently wrote in the media, "Although the Ukrainian war has become a new liberal gathering point, this Western consensus based on value seems to be an illusion outside the boundary of NATO ."
Compared with the values promoted by the United States, Gulf country is now pursuing pragmatism. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made Gulf countries feel the arrival of initiative. In addition to taking advantage of their dominance in the global energy market, they have also seized the opportunity of "transactions". After Russia announced a special military operation in Ukraine, the Saudi government-controlled sovereign wealth fund quietly invested more than $600 million in three Russian dominant energy companies. Subsequently, after the United States, Canada and several European countries cut Russian oil imports, Saudi Arabia doubled the amount of oil it purchased from Russia, releasing its own crude oil exports.
Just when the "OPEC+" production cuts were in full swing, UAE President Mohammed visited Moscow, and Saudi Arabia took on all the criticism from the United States. During his meeting with Mohamed, Russian President Putin praised the relationship with the UAE as an "important factor in stability" in the region and the world. While welcoming the "OPEC+" decision to cut production, he also emphasized that "our decision is not aimed at anyone."
For ten years, after adapting to changes in the US behavior, the Gulf countries have realized the essence of their relationship with the US. This is not a stable and strategic relationship, but a rather volatile and transactional relationship. The result of admitting this is to establish new ties with powerful countries such as Russia and China, diversify diplomacy and balance relations with Washington.
"All the major traditional allies of the United States in the Middle East - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egyptian , Turkey and even Israel - have taken an ambivalent position on Russia and boycotted Washington in the Ukrainian war because they are close to Moscow, which is no coincidence." Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT) wrote in an editorial, "None of these regional participants have disrupted or cut off relations with Moscow for an unpredictable Washington. That's why we see regional actors relentlessly fighting Washington, which were unintelligible a decade ago."
