Today, A shares have two major positives: First, China Securities Finance Co., Ltd. decided to lower the overall transfer financing rate by 40BP. From a historical perspective, every time the securities fund lowers the transfer financing rate, the securities sector has risen sharply with A-shares; second, for real estate-related companies, the China Securities Regulatory Commission allows some companies that have a small amount of real estate-related businesses but do not focus on real estate as the main business to raise funds in the A-share market, which has opened an opening for real estate financing. Although there are strict business restrictions, it has set a precedent, which is beneficial to the real estate sector.
But today's A-share performance was unsatisfactory. The securities and real estate sectors opened high and closed low and . The securities sector barely closed higher, and the real estate sector turned green. As of the close, Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.27%. The trading volume of in the two markets shrinks to 0.71 trillion. It is worth mentioning that Shanghai Composite Index 50 Index hit a new low during the session. That's right, Shanghai Composite Index 50 has fallen below its previous low, hitting a new low since 2019.
, the murderer who caused the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 to fall below the previous low was northbound funds. Today, northbound funds sold net sales of 8.923 billion, and net sales of 4.425 billion, 3.757 billion, 6.002 billion and 6.223 billion in the first four trading days of this week. Nearly 30 billion outflows in the five trading days this week. From this perspective, it is already good that A-shares can survive this week by carrying foreign capital to smash the market.
Since this round of rebound, foreign capital has been outflowing, and domestic and foreign capital has not resonated, so the rebound amplitude is also relatively weak. In fact, since September, foreign capital has been basically outflowed, and only a few trading days have inflowed.
Yesterday we mentioned that since September, the actions of southbound funds and northbound funds have been completely opposite. Northbound funds have continued to sell A-shares, and southbound funds have continued to buy Hong Kong stock . Today, southbound funds have bought 3.407 billion again, and net buying Hong Kong stocks have exceeded 47.1 billion for 12 consecutive trading days. As we all know, the core assets of Hong Kong stocks are the assets of the mainland. Domestic capital is crazy about buying Hong Kong stocks. In addition to undervalued Hong Kong stocks, it is also relatively optimistic about the domestic macroeconomic .
. Foreign capital continues to flow out of A-shares, which is mainly related to the continuous depreciation of the RMB. Yesterday, the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated below 7.27, hitting a new low. The RMB continues to depreciate because the spread of interest rates between China and the United States continues to expand. China's two-year Treasury bond yield was 2.07%, but yesterday the yield on the two-year Treasury bond exceeded 4.6%.
4.6%What does this mean? According to the pace of rate hikes in Fed interest rate meeting in September, the rate hikes in November were 75BP and the rate hikes in December were 50BP, which increased to 4.5% by the end of the year. In other words, the current market has begun to expect , the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten, not only will the interest rate hike of 75BP in November, but also the interest rate hike of 75BP in December.
The current 4.6% US two-year Treasury yield and 4.2% US ten bond yield have become a nightmare for the global financial market. Compared with the US bond yield, the stock market is difficult to be attractive, and funds will frantically sell emerging market stocks into the United States. Yesterday, the US dollar exchange rate against the Japanese yen had fallen below the 150 mark, setting a new low in 1990. If the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates twice in a row, if the U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, this will seriously suppress global stock markets, and it is not even ruled out that the financial crisis will occur.
especially emerging markets. In order to resist the strengthening of the US dollar and maintain the stability of the currency, countries have to use for foreign exchange reserves , and the possibility of a crisis may increase dramatically. Today, the Vietnamese stock market suddenly collapsed, the Vietnam VN index plummeted by 4%. The European, African, , Middle East, , which just opened , also fell generally.
Risk warning:
stock market is risky, investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently.
