enters the fourth quarter of 2022, and the RMB exchange rate of is constantly fluctuating. On October 11, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the 7.1 mark again, and the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates continued the depreciation trend of the previous trading day, both depreciating to around the 7.20 mark, among which the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit the lowest in the day at 7.2004.
Onshore RMB depreciated by more than 800 basis points
According to data disclosed by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center authorized by the Central Bank of China , the mid-price of the RMB exchange rate of interbank foreign exchange market on October 11, 2022 was: 1 US dollar to RMB 7.1075, the previous trading day was 7.0992 yuan, and the depreciation was 83 basis points per day.
Onshore RMB closed at 7.1440 against the US dollar on the previous trading day, and the opening price on October 11 was 7.1130. The offshore RMB opening price against the US dollar, which reflects more expectations of international investors, is 7.1514. After the opening, both major exchange rate quotes showed a short-term depreciation. The onshore RMB depreciated by more than 800 basis points against the US dollar, with a minimum depreciation to 7.1968; the offshore RMB fell by nearly 500 basis points against the US dollar, with a minimum depreciation of 7.2004. After
hit the low point of intraday depreciation, both major exchange rate quotes showed a volatility and rebound trend. Wind data shows that as of 17:05 on October 11, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.1780, with a depreciation of 0.48% on the day; the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.1866, with a depreciation of 0.46%.
Beijing Business Daily reporter found that on the last trading day of September (September 30), both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates showed a significant appreciation trend during the session, regaining multiple thresholds and returning to above 7.10. The offshore yuan, which was not affected by the holiday, appreciated its highest value at 7.0128 in early October. In the two trading days after the holiday (October 10 and 11), the exchange rates of the two major RMB depreciated one after another, and the central price of the RMB against the US dollar rose slightly by 6 basis points on October 10.
Regarding the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate, Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Securities and Futures Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics and general manager of the Research and Development Department of Inner Mongolia Bank, pointed out that the analysis of the recent depreciation of the RMB mainly grasps the following key points: First, Federal Reserve continues to implement hawkish policies, plus geopolitical and the European energy crisis, US dollar index hit a 20-year high, and non-US currencies are under passive depreciation pressure; second, downward pressure on the domestic economy and sluggish exports have become psychological expectations that affect the fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate; third, for the sake of stabilizing the economy, the domestic implementation of marginal easing monetary policy , causing the spread of interest rates between China and the United States to narrow until it is inverted, which is the main reason for the depreciation of the RMB.
senior macro researcher Wang Hao further explained that during the National Day holiday, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's hike in again in November, 275 basis points rose sharply. The driving factor behind it is the latest released US non-farm employment data in September that exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was at the lowest level in nearly 50 years, driving the US dollar index higher and non-US currencies fell.
maintains a low two-way fluctuation
Beijing Business Daily reporter noticed that on the evening of October 7, the U.S. Department of Labor released the latest data showing that the United States added 263,000 non-farm jobs in September, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%. The average monthly salary per hour in September increased by 0.3%, and the annual rate increased by 5%. Under the Fed's tightening cycle, the US labor market has cooled down, further strengthening the market's expectations for the Fed's rate hike. Under the strong US dollar cycle of
, many central banks have also used interest rate hikes and other forms to reduce the impact of currency depreciation and capital outflows on their own economy. my country's central bank has always adhered to the prudent monetary policy of , and mainly focused on me, and used moderate selection of policy tools to "stabilize the exchange rate". According to the disclosure of the People's Bank of China on September 29, the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee pointed out at the regular meeting of the third quarter of 2022 that it is necessary to deepen the market-oriented exchange rate reform, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of " risk neutral ", strengthen the management of expectations, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.
enters the last quarter of 2022. What will the RMB exchange rate trend? Wang Hao believes that the RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate in two-way in the fourth quarter, and the possibility of significant depreciation or appreciation is relatively low.Yang Haiping also pointed out that the early exchange rate adjustment released the depreciation pressure, and although there was still depreciation pressure in the later period, it had weakened.
The reason is, Wang Hao said that from the perspective of fundamentals , the slope of domestic economic recovery is slow, while the Fed's forward-looking guidance continues to be more hawkish, and the RMB will still face certain depreciation pressure. But at the same time, domestic monetary authorities have rich policy means and abundant policy space for maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate.
"The domestic economic recovery in the fourth quarter will be better than expected, which will help provide psychological support for a stable exchange rate." Yang Haiping analyzed that at the same time, the central bank's warning to not bet on the unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is still in the ears, and the central bank has sufficient policy tools to regulate the RMB exchange rate. Based on this, it is judged that the central bank is guiding the market to form a new RMB exchange rate equilibrium point and form more elastic fluctuations.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Liao Meng
