A shares Why is it "hundred points entangled" for a long time?
All A-share indexes closed the weekly positive line this week, and closed the monthly positive line for the third consecutive month, but the positive line entity is very small.
I remember there is a term in physics called "quantum entanglement". To put it into consideration, the Chinese stock market has also invented the "hundred-point entanglement" this year.
From 2440 points on January 4 this year to 3288 points on April 8, after A-shares launched a spring market, the value center of A-shares has been 2930-2950 points in more than half a year. With this as the axis, the market has been fluctuating in a narrow range of 50 points up and down, "hundred points are entangled". Up 50 points, when the market broke through 3,000 points, the market was frenzy, thinking that it could touch 3,200 points, and chased the rise, but the index turned down; when the market fell 50 points, when the market approached 2,900 points, the market was pessimistic, shouting the slogan "2,800 points are not guaranteed, 2,500 points are seen", and they all sold to stop losses, but the market rebounded inexplicably!
This kind of "hundred-point entanglement" really makes investors feel heartbroken and unpredictable. What is the reason?
1. The new stock "damming lake" blocked the space above 3,000 points.
says that the stock market is the barometer of the economy. Today, with global economic integration, the Chinese stock market and the world stock market have been integrated.
However, people can't figure it out:
The US stock market, where the financial crisis originated, has long conquered the high before the crisis. In the 10-year bull market, it has set a record high for more than 100 times, and the index has risen 3.2 times compared with the crisis.
The European stock market, where the European debt crisis originated, has grown by less than 1%, but it is also a bull market for 10 consecutive years;
The Japanese stock market, which has suffered economic crisis for 20 consecutive years, has risen from 6994 points to 24448 points in the past 10 years, up 2.5 times;
The stock market of Germany, Britain, France, Italy and other countries has hit record highs and performed very strongly;
includes the stock markets of emerging countries such as India, Brazil, and Vietnam. On the K-line chart, it is also a prosperous scene of a continuous bull market.
, but the average annual economic growth in 40 years is 9.8%, and it is still 6.2%. The Chinese stock market, which stands out in the global economy, cannot even cross the mountainside at the pre-financial crisis high of 6124 points. 13 years ago, 3,000 points were out of reach. Become an "iron top"! Before
, some people always talked about the influence of external challenges. Now the first phase of the agreement is about to be signed, but A-shares are still the same as bearish. What are the obstacles? The index of
3000 points is first suppressed by the "damshes" of the expansion of new stocks.
only issued 64 new stocks in the first half of this year, raising 61.3 billion yuan, so the spring market in the first half of the year was booming, with the increase of each index reaching 35%-40%, which can be regarded as a wave of intermediate bull market.
However, since the second half of the year, the expansion of new stocks has increased layer by layer, and A-shares have been deteriorating!
html issued 42 new shares in July, raising 50.5 billion yuan, almost equivalent to the financing amount in the first half of the year in a month.8 and September, as new stocks need to supplement their financial data for the first half of the year, issuance slowed down, and about 10 billion yuan raised, the stock market rebounded to above 3,000 points.
By October, the expansion of new stocks accelerated again, raising 34.6 billion yuan, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank alone raised 10 billion yuan, accounting for one-third.
November has not started yet. At the end of October, 11 companies issued prospectuses, raising 43.8 billion yuan. Among them, the "big guy" Zhejiang Commercial Bank 12.6 billion, the Postal Savings Bank 28 billion, and the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway will also be issued. It scared the market!
December, according to the progress of science and technology innovation board listed companies will reach 80-100 by the end of the year, the Science and Technology Innovation Board will be the peak of mass listing.
Interestingly, whenever the market reaches 3,000 points, news of the expansion and leap forward come one after another, without falling a single step. For example, the regulators have changed the new stock quota approved by the week from 2 to 4 in the past. For example, 16 new stocks were issued in a week, setting a record for the stock market in 30 years. For example, we will seize the opportunity to launch the expansion news of several large-cap stocks. This kind of practice of making money by doing everything possible to make money with a little better stock market has hurt investors' hearts. Not only did it extinguish the market's enthusiasm for longing, but it also drove all the funds that could have continued to expand the stock market to the primary market to contribute to new stock financing. The speed of drawing blood from the market is much faster and much larger than the medium and long-term funds introduced.Over time, the market's habitual thinking of "3,000 points is the big top". Another manifestation of the expansion of
is that in July, A-shares opened a new registration system for the Science and Technology Innovation Board pilot program, implemented the unlimited rise and fall rate of new stocks on the first day, and the daily trading 20% daily limit system, and stipulated that only large investors with a total of more than 500,000 yuan can participate. This has led to the most financially powerful and most active large investors in the market to the Science and Technology Innovation Board, resulting in a large amount of blood loss on the main board. Individual investors who stay on the main board and small and medium-sized entrepreneurs are basically retail investors with funds below 100,000 yuan. Once the market has lost so many new forces, it will be difficult for the market to use the Ant-style "people's war" as before to promote the rise of the index. What is the current situation of the big players who have entered the Science and Technology Innovation Board trading? In three months, most of the stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board were cut from the highest price that soared by 3-5 times when they were listed. All major institutions participating in the offline allocation of 70% of new stocks have obtained risk-free profits and were severely cut off the "leeks".
Faced with the continuous listing of new stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and in another 9 months, Xiaofei's stock price will be halved when the ban is lifted. Currently, major players participating in the secondary market of the Science and Technology Innovation Board are constantly "killing more", and their stock prices are falling all the way. The big players in financing transactions are either blown up or hurt. How can they still have the intention and strength to go to the main board and small and medium-sized enterprises, and act as the new force to push the index to expand above 3,000 points?
2 and are non-reduced holdings of , which is a larger "damage lake" than new stocks, and has a huge lethality to the index.
2016-early 2018, during his tenure, Liu Shiyu, chairman of the last China Securities Regulatory Commission, made a rare leap forward in the history of Chinese and foreign stock markets, and issued 774 new stocks.
Last year was the climax of the lifting of the ban on small illegal industries, and this year to next year was the climax of the lifting of the ban on big illegal industries.
Due to the new stock model, only one-quarter of the companies with a total of less than 400 million shares will be circulated when listed; only one-tenth of the companies with a total of more than 400 million shares will be circulated when listed. That is to say, 1-3 years later, with the original one new stock, it became 4 or 10 new stocks. The market value of large and small non-banned non-bans is 4 times or 10 times the amount of new stock fundraising in that year exceeds the annual rate. With the news of the lifting of the ban, you can get several limit downs of the stock. Once the news of the reduction of holdings is released, it will hit the market even more, becoming the biggest killer that has curbed the rise of the stock index and led to the successive limit-down of the stock index and stocks.
According to statistics from Databao, from November to the first quarter of next year, 154.1 billion shares will be lifted from large and small non-banned shares. According to the existing stock price, the market value of the lifted shares is as high as 1.9 trillion yuan, which is amazing! These are all serious sequelae caused by accelerating capacity expansion. Among them, as long as 10% of the shares are reduced, it will exceed the amount of new shares raised throughout the year.
This is an important reason why people escaped desperately when they saw 3,000 points recently!
, even the main funds have been out of net out for 29 consecutive days so far. Who dares to make a promise: "Reducing holdings of large and small non-small shares will have little impact on the market"?
3. The increase in funds for large domestic and foreign institutions to enter the market has maintained the bottom line of 2,900 points.
On October 31, the central bank released data on domestic and foreign institutions' holdings of Chinese stocks in the third quarter.
(1) National team: the market value of holding shares is 4.35 trillion, an increase of 230 billion from the semi-annual report;
(2) Public fund: the market value of holding shares is 2.2 trillion, an increase of 115.6 billion from the semi-annual report;
(3) Insurance funds: the market value of holding shares is 1.3182 trillion, an decrease of 14.1 billion from the semi-annual report;
(4) Social security fund: the market value of holding shares is 165.8 billion, an increase of 13 billion from the semi-annual report;
(5) Pension funds: the market value of holding shares is 12.2 billion, an increase of 14.1 billion from the semi-annual report;
(5) Pension funds: the market value of holding shares is 12.2 billion, an increase of 14.1 billion from the semi-annual report;
(5) Pension funds: the market value of holding shares is 12.2 billion, an increase of 14.1 billion from the semi-annual report;
(4) Social security fund: the market value of holding shares is 165.8 billion, an increase of 13 billion from the semi-annual report;
(5) Pension funds: the market value of holding shares is 12.2 billion, an increase of 12.2 billion from the semi-annual report;
(5) Pension funds: the market value of holding shares is 12.2 billion, an increase of 14.1 billion from the semi-annual report;
(5) Pension funds: the market value of holding shares is 12.2 billion, an increase of 14.1 billion from the semi-annual report;
(5) Pension funds: the market value of holding shares is 12.2 billion, an increase of 1 300 million yuan;
(6) Securities: the shareholding market value is 34.6 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1 billion from the semi-annual report;
(7) QFII's shareholding market value is 104.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4 billion from the semi-annual report;
(8) Overseas institutions and individuals: the shareholding market value is 176.8554 billion yuan, an increase of 53.56% from the 115.1735 billion at the end of last year, setting a record high;
makes an addition, the market value of 8 major institutions holding A-shares is 8.18 trillion yuan, accounting for 18.2% of the circulating market value of 45 trillion yuan.
On the one hand, whether it is the original holdings market value of holdings or the newly added holdings, most of them are the large-cap stocks of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the mid-cap stocks of 300 Shanghai Stock Exchange 2 Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index , Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 Index and Shanghai Composite Index . Even if small-cap stocks on the SME and Science and Technology Innovation Board have plunged, the impact on these three large-cap stock indexes is limited.
On the other hand, in the past nine months, the new market value of foreign capital increased significantly compared with the end of last year, at 53.56%, indicating that foreign capital is optimistic about the future market of A-shares, which is a global valuation depression. With the Fed's third interest rate cut this year, global central banks have also followed up on interest rate cuts, and the US stock market is staggering near historical highs. It is believed that more foreign capital will enter A-shares, which will be beneficial to the downside space of banning A-shares.
On the other hand, I noticed that MSCI currently includes 15% of A-shares, and its three position building periods are at 3100 points, 3000 points and 2900 points respectively. On November 8, it will also increase its share from 15% to 20%, and said that the equity of large-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks will account for 85% and 15% respectively, and will still increase its position around 2950. Including the previous two index positions of FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones, it was also at around 3,000 points.
Therefore, over the past year, most of the A-shares that have been established in these three major indexes have been stuck or partially trapped. Even if some individual stocks have profits, they are generally limited. They will not be willing to easily fall below 2900 points. This is also the reason why northbound funds have increased their holdings by 120 billion since July, but recently, while the main domestic capital has been continuously outflowing, northbound funds have been continuously reversed net inflows. It is also the reason why MSCI's increase in positions in November set the ratio of large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks at 85% and 15%. It is likely that there are considerations to protect the index, prevent being trapped, and save production. A-shares started well in November, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up nearly 1%, stopping three consecutive declines. The net inflow of northbound funds was 7.45 billion yuan, a net inflow for seven consecutive days; the cumulative inflow of foreign capital this week exceeded 23 billion yuan, setting a new record for the largest single-week net inflow in the past two months.
4. Getting rid of the "hundred-point entanglement" depends on fundamental improvement.
So far, the so-called "building a dynamic and resilient capital market" of regulators has a considerable gap with the market's expectations. It turns out that what they call "vibration" is only manifested in the stock market as local individual stocks, or a day trip to the blockchain concept this Monday. And the index's "hundred-point entanglement" cannot be called "energetic" at all!
What they call "resilience" only refers to the index's "hundred-point entanglement" or fluctuations up and down by 50 points; they are not rising high, nor can they fall. In Shanghai dialect, it is "ketchup". The "resilly" stock market that is expected by the majority of investors in the market, which is in line with the economy, the stock market has risen steadily, the rise is more than the fall, the pace of the continuous bull market in the international stock market such as the United States, Europe, Japan and India, and the stock index can fluctuate and trade for a long time, and can hold it, is too far apart. The "hundred-point entanglement" of the
A-share index cannot be found in the global stock market. To be honest, if this continues, medium- and long-term funds and foreign capital will not be willing to come or retain them!
So how can we get rid of the "hundred-point entanglement" of the index and make A-shares move towards a benign slow bull track?
First of all, as Mr. Han Zhiguo recently advocated, we must correct the deviation in the positioning of the stock market. That is, in terms of market positioning, is it mainly invested or financing? In terms of regulatory positioning, is it administrative regulation or is it determined by the market? In terms of development positioning, should we focus on market size or pursue market efficiency? As A-shares have become the second largest stock market in the world, regulators should highlight the latter!
Secondly, in order to resolve the expansion of new stocks and the reduction of holdings of large and small non-holdings, we must follow the mass line, widely listen to beneficial opinions from all parties in the market, and adhere to democratic and scientific decision-making; we should timely divide the new and old into different parts of the new stock, and take the reform of the equity structure of new stocks (the proportion of controlling shareholders shall not exceed one-third) as a breakthrough, and once and for all, we should prevent the continuous emergence of new large and small non-"damage lakes".
Again, giving A-shares the opportunity to recuperate and repair the market.Since regulators have repeatedly emphasized that A-shares are currently a global valuation depression and have great investment value, foreign capital should not be put first in introducing medium- and long-term funds. Instead, various measures should be taken, including slowing down expansion, especially excluding the listing of large-cap stocks in cyclical traditional industries, so as to allow domestic residents' funds to enter the market actively to fill the valuation depression of A-shares and create opportunities for them to preserve and increase wealth, so as to effectively stimulate domestic demand and promote economic recovery.
Finally, it depends on the improvement of fundamentals and policies. If substantial progress has been made in external problems, various economic indicators have stopped falling and rebounded, the performance of listed companies has improved significantly, and the independent core high-tech stocks have shown their high growth potential, and the stamp duty has been abolished and the transaction tax of securities companies has been greatly reduced, and various systems to crack down on counterfeiting have been established.
