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Periodic table 2nd place, quietly lying a rare silver white metal. This metal has a melting point of more than 2600℃ and a boiling point of more than 5500℃. 80% of its output is used in the production of steel . Just like salt is indispensable for cooking, it is an indispensable additive in the steel industry.
Speaking of this, you may know who I am talking about. Yes, that is molyte . Although it is a small metal variety, countries call molybdenum a war metal because of its strategic role.
Molybdenum schematic diagram
price is one of the weather vanes that reflect the importance of molybdenum. Currently, the price of ferromolybdenum has reached nearly 180,000 yuan/base ton, and has also reached the highest point since in the past decade. If you briefly analyze the reasons behind it, the blame will be the Russian-Ukrainian war. The logistics and shipment schedule problems caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have caused great uncertainty about ferrous molybdenum exports to Europe by Russia every month.
Our generation is constantly witnessing history.
Follic Molybdenum Price Trend (iFind)
Today, the author will take you to have an in-depth discussion on the past and present life of molybdenum metal and its investment logic.
This is a carnival for a few people
240 years ago, chemists of Swedish obtained the metal molybdenum by reducing charcoal and molybdate through carbon reduction. Molybdenum is truly well-known to the world. With the full development of the industrial revolution in the 19th century, the application value of molybdenum metal has also been gradually discovered.
Nowadays, the molybdenum industry chain has opened upwards and the upstream mining, smelting and processing in the midstream, and downstream industry applications. Because of the excellent physical properties of molybdenum, molybdenum can be seen almost in all industries such as steel, petroleum, chemical industry, and electrical industries.
Molybdenum metal industry chain (China National Knowledge Infrastructure)
The global molybdenum resource reserves are approximately 17 million tons. It is proud that nearly half of the reserves are concentrated in China (of which 30% of molybdenum resources are concentrated in Henan). Domestic mines have two distinct characteristics: one is that the scale of the deposit is large, and the other is that it is mostly native ores (ores in the deposits that are not affected by oxidation). Moreover, in terms of output, the global molybdenum production last year was about 300,000 tons, and the output of China, , Chile, and the United States accounted for the global 3/4, .
Molybdenum Resource Distribution (USGS)
Global Molybdenum ore Look at China, China Molybdenum ore Henan.
not only has reserves and output, but also molybdenum mine players around the world are highly concentrated . For example, the top ten players in the world such as Freeport Group, Chilean National Copper Company, and Southern Copper have mastered more than 65% of molybdenum resources. Small and medium-sized players can only sigh at the "Molybdenum".
Molybdenum concentrate production (kilotons)
. Judging from the molybdenum ore mining situation in recent years, the supply of molybdenum is not optimistic. The global supply of molybdenum metal has entered the low-speed growth period of . Capital expenditure on mining and smelting of molybdenum ore has declined year by year, with an annual compound growth rate in the past decade only 1.2%. For China, in order to protect and rationally develop advantageous mineral resources, the country strictly manages the mining and export of molybdenum ore. At the same time, with the increase in mining years, the mining cost of molybdenum ore is also increasing day by day, while the grade is gradually declining.
Molybdenum production has increased by limited (10,000 tons) in the past three years.
stainless steel helps, giving space for price imagination
. The above also talks about 80% of molybdenum products worldwide are used in the steel industry. Specifically, 41% are used in alloy steel, 22% are used in stainless steel, etc. my country is not only a major producer of molybdenum, but also a major consumer. In the past decade, our molybdenum consumption has increased by nearly ten times .
Molybdenum Application Scenario (IMOA)
For future growth points, the author is more optimistic about the development of stainless steel and alloy steel. The reason is that our country's high-end steel is still a certain gap from European and American countries (for example, our production of U-special steel is only 10%, and developed countries are about 15% higher than us).
According to the forecast given by the agency, at least this year and next year, the demand growth rate of molybdenum will remain above 6%, and what about the supply? There is only the poor 3%. The two are unbalanced, which gives molybdenum prices room to continue to rise. It may be too early to say that the ceiling has arrived. What is the situation of the player
?
In a blink of an eye, it is time for listed players to frequently submit their report cards. How can players perform?
Affected by the imbalance of supply and demand last year, the Internet celebrity stock Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (603993), although selling dog meat with the sheep's head (it also has metals such as copper and cobalt), the net profit in 2021 119.26% , with a net profit attributable to shareholders of more than 5.1 billion yuan; the next player's Jinmolybdenum shares (601958) is not to be outdone. It has a full industrial chain layout from mines to metal products, and has continuously strengthened cost control. Although revenue only increased by 5.24%, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent has increased by 158.89% .
You may have to say that the performance is good and the industry leader. The rise in molybdenum prices is relatively guaranteed, so what are you waiting for if you don’t have a heavy position? Wait a minute, the perspective of looking at the problem should be more comprehensive. The author carefully analyzed its financial situation. Luoyang Molybdenum Industry has a considerable short-term financial pressure, and its debt-to-asset ratio is close to 65%, which is also the highest value in the past decade. On the one hand, it is related to the two rounds of share repurchase plans launched by the company in the past two years. On the other hand, the commodity market has been good in the past two years, and the company is also actively raising funds to expand production capacity.
Luoyang Molybdenum Industry's debt-to-asset ratio
, but as the saying goes, risks and returns coexist. Commodities with such severe fluctuations in the past two years have been affected by a series of black swan events , and the attribute of relying on the sky to make a living is becoming more and more obvious. I can't guarantee where the next trick will come from.
After all, corporate stakeholders are happy when making a profit. When you lose money, debts don't wait for you.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm without a transaction.
