When I was writing this article with my friends, the date was October 5th. Because the US stock market rebounded strongly on October 4th, and then on that day, neither A shares nor my country's Hong Kong stock market opened . European stock markets, US stock markets, and Asia-Pacific stock markets all rose sharply, and many stock even experienced double-digit rises. The time period when I was writing an article happened to be trading in my country's Hong Kong stock market. One of them was stocks - Bilibili , which actually rose by more than 12% in one morning, including the Hang Seng Technology Index, which also rebounded strongly today. All things in reflect that the capital markets around the world are based on the US dollar interest rate hike , the US dollar interest rate hike, and the strength of the dollar index , so now there is a seesaw phenomenon.
Some overseas financial personnel said that before the US dollar rate hike comes to an end, what kind of assets have relatively less risk? Even Dalio, president of Bridgewater Fund , who is never ruthless in buying stocks, is changing his words and saying that except for cash, other risks are relatively high. Of course this is my opening remark. The theme I am talking about today is that my country's Hong Kong market may have a major breakthrough in the system.
New institutional arrangements, the RMB is about to enter the Hong Kong market?
Recently, the Hong Kong economic authorities made a public speech, indicating that they are arranging to allow more RMB to enter Hong Kong for transactions in the capital market. Because stock trading in the Hong Kong market in my country is mainly traded in Hong Kong dollars, other currencies cannot be traded. Although there are some stocks and some ETF, it also has a RMB price, but its daily trading volume is pitifully small, almost tiny, so it will not have an impact on the entire capital market.
The general currency of my country's Hong Kong market - Hong Kong dollar, which is the US dollar and is -related exchange rate . As we all know recently, almost all currencies in the world that compare prices with the US dollar are depreciating, and even gold is falling. In this case, some people sell Hong Kong dollars to buy US dollars, and Hong Kong's financial department keeps buying, releasing its foreign exchange reserves . According to the latest data on October 2 or 3, the total amount of Hong Kong dollars between banks in Hong Kong in my country has fallen to around 120 billion, so it will definitely force the Hong Kong dollar to raise interest rates.
Then after the Hong Kong dollar raises interest rates, it will actually have a great impact on the economic recovery of the entire Hong Kong, especially the real estate in Hong Kong. So in this case, the Hong Kong regulatory authorities will definitely take measures to maintain a certain amount. You can notice that the daily daily trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market in my country has been around 100 billion Hong Kong dollars recently, but now it has fallen to 700 billion to 80 billion, and the trading volume is shrinking. This is of course not a good phenomenon for the capital market, so the Hong Kong regulatory authorities proposed to trade Hong Kong stock in RMB.
has this institutional arrangement, and many listed companies have clearly stated that if my country's Hong Kong capital market uses RMB for trading, they are willing to try this, that is, a stock will have two listing prices. After hearing this, many friends will ask, can we also trade in RMB? But from the current known information, it seems that it is not possible. Because everyone knows that our RMB is divided into two major parts: one is the domestic legal currency, and the other is the overseas RMB market.
introduces live water, and overseas RMB may become a "hot commodity"
and then return to the Hong Kong market in my country mentioned earlier. If you want to trade stocks in RMB, the first step must be to make these overseas RMB available for buying and selling stocks in Hong Kong International Financial Center , that is, stocks sold in the capital market. If the Hong Kong market launches stocks traded in RMB, as long as it holds overseas RMB, there is no need to exchange Hong Kong dollars, which will invisibly bring a lively water to the Hong Kong stock market. These constitute an institutional and potential benefit for both the RMB and the capital market in my country's Hong Kong market. I believe that with the gradual introduction of these systems, a new atmosphere will appear in my country's Hong Kong market, especially in the Hong Kong stock trading.
If there are major moves in the Hong Kong market in my country now quoting Hong Kong stocks and overseas RMB quoting, it is worthy of further attention. Then I believe that the first batch of Hong Kong stocks that can be traded overseas by RMB must not be traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and in the A-share market. If you trade, you will form a phenomenon that stocks have three prices, which will cause a certain "confusion" in investment. Over time, the RMB should be open in a managed manner under the capital account, or from divisions to full opening.
No matter what market a stock is in, except for the specific time period and exchange rate factors, its price difference should not exceed 1-2% per day compared with the price comparison of other existing stocks in the world. So from this logic, if the number of stocks sold in Hong Kong market in China is increasing and the number of varieties increases, will bring some new impacts and new changes to the valuation of stocks sold in our Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today in purely RMB? This is worth paying attention to.
Watch the flowers in the fog, learn to invest with the "Asian Stock God"
The Fed's interest rate hike is too far, and it will move the whole body
[Editor's Word]
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Author: Li Guangyi
Editor: Zhang Tianyi
Producer: Wang Junji
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