[Editor-in-Chief Watch the Market]
Global stock markets are in turmoil. Hang Seng Index fell below the 18,000 point mark. Several events that exceeded expectations occurred in the market:
1. Although the Federal Reserve rate hike at 75 basis points were expected, Powell's hawkish speech and dot chart all had major conflicts with the market. Especially the exchange rate market has a great impact;
2, a new situation has emerged in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The 'Referendum of Joining Russia' will be held from the 23rd to the 27th. What chain reaction will occur in the results of this week’s referendum needs further observation.
This week is the last week of the National Day holiday. According to convention, the market will generally be lighter. Whether the bottomed out after falling below 18,000 points can stabilize in the stage, on the one hand, depends on the relative easing of the international environment. Observing the yield of US bonds and the trend of the US dollar; on the other hand, it also depends on the domestic economic situation. For example, China's official manufacturing PMI in September and China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in September, whether it can break through the boom line is the key.
Opportunity, Macau Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng held a press conference and said: Mainland electronic visas and mainland travel groups will resume traveling to Australia, and travel groups are expected to resume in November. The government will relax entry quarantine arrangements to "0+3" from next week. Kong Fanyi, a government expert consultant, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases and clinical professor of the Department of Internal Medicine of the University of Hong Kong Medical College, said that the new arrangement has summarized most people with a chance of developing the disease. If the proportion of imported cases does not rebound in the next few weeks, the conditions will be relaxed to "0+0". It is expected to bring opportunities to Macau gambling and Hong Kong local stocks. At the same time, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission : The momentum of real estate financialization and bubble has been substantially reversed. Observe whether real estate stocks stop falling and stabilize. Overseas, Europe is facing tests this winter, and energy-related categories are paying attention to it appropriately.
[ gold stock this week]
China Mobile (00941)
8 customer data showed that the total number of customers in terms of mobile business reached about 973 million, with a net increase of 2.109 million in August, and a cumulative net increase of 16.35 million this year; the number of customers in 5G package reached about 539 million. In terms of wired broadband business, the total number of customers reached 261 million, with a net increase of 2.648 million this month and a cumulative net increase of 20.797 million this year.
In the first half of 2022, China Mobile's operating income reached RMB 496.9 billion, and increased by 12.0% year-on-year, continuing to maintain double-digit growth rate. digital transformation revenue is the second growth curve of mobile, reaching RMB 110.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, accounting for 26.0% of the main business revenue. The growth logic is mainly mobile broadband TV top box revenue. In addition, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have gone to the cloud and have also provided opportunities for China Mobile to promote digital transformation.
The company's capital expenditure in the first half of 2022 was 92 billion, which is 49.7% of the 2022 full-year guidance. Among them, 5G related capital expenditure is 58.7 billion, and computing power is 20 billion. As of the end of June this year, a total of 5.593 million cloud servers have been put into production, and 429,000 IDCh racks have been put into production to the outside world, which has realized the full interconnection of the backbone nodes of the east and west computing power hubs. The company continues to improve the construction of underlying computing power facilities, which will help achieve a comprehensive improvement of underlying computing and network capabilities of computing power networks, and make efforts to build a new type of information infrastructure. With the help of resource endowment of user base and cloud network capabilities, the company continues to expand the scale of cloud users in various industries and ranks among the forefront of the industry. CICC expects its mobile cloud business revenue to double in 2022. In terms of dividend payment of
, the interim dividend is HK$2.2 per share, and the dividend rate of is 57%, an increase of 10 percentage points from the same period last year; it attaches importance to the return rate of shareholders , and promises to increase the dividend rate to 70% in 2023.
From the perspective of the industry development cycle, the stock prices of telecommunications companies may rise slightly for a long time after more than 10 years of silence. The market has fallen sharply recently, but the high dividend company China Mobile has been strong, and its stock price is even approaching its high point in recent years. The trading volume is also among the top Hong Kong Stock Connect (the transaction volume last Friday was second only to Tencent ). China Mobile is also the largest overseas stock in Ruiyuan Fund Fu Pengbo, and it is worth paying attention to the situation where the market continues to be new lows.
[Industry Observation]
Spot Thermal coal price is still accelerating. Last week (September 19-23, 2022) Jingtang Port thermal coal Q5500 closed price quotation was 1,493 yuan/ton, up 5.7% month-on-month.
supply side, the operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia has continued to decline in trend since July. The operating rate last week was 82.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.7 percentage points. Recently, there have been many mining disasters, and the operating rate is still being tested; in terms of imported coal, imported coal increased by 5% year-on-year in August, but from a structural point of view, it is speculated that the amount of low-calorie coal in Indonesia has increased significantly, and the calorific value is compensated by quantity. The actual supply depends on the effect of the total calorific value.
On the demand side, the weather turns cooler in September, and the daily consumption of power plants is expected to weaken and is still higher than the same period in 2021. During the "Golden September and Silver October" period, non-electric coal demand rose, driving the rise in spot prices.
Looking ahead to the future market, there is still uncertainty in the increase in new capacity in supply. The convening of major meetings will bring pressure on environmental protection and safety supervision. Production may be subject to certain constraints, making it difficult to return to normal levels. Moreover, the maintenance of Daqin Line in autumn may have a certain impact on transportation capacity. The current overseas energy crisis continues to escalate. Russia's gas supply for Nord Stream No. 1 pipeline is cut off, and alternative demand turns to coal. Overseas coal grabbing may pose a major challenge to China's imported coal. In terms of demand, although September and October enter the off-season of electric coal, the fundamentals of may reflect both weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure on supply may be greater than the downward trend of demand. In addition, the stable growth policy and non-electric coal peak season such as cement chemicals are still expected to stabilize demand; Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned that it is necessary to ensure coal supply in the heating season, and winter storage is expected to start early. The off-season may be very short, and the price of thermal coal still has upward momentum. The same is true for coking coal. The global energy crisis situation continues to escalate, and coal prices with significantly increased alternative demand will become stronger or stronger. For a considerable period of time in the future, the supply and demand mismatch of coal fundamentals may still exist, and coal prices have upward momentum. China Shenhua has increased its dividend commitment from no less than 50% to 60%, and the new logic of high profits and high dividends for coal is becoming increasingly consolidated. Hong Kong stock follow Shenhua (01088), Yanzhou Coal Energy (01171), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Australia (03668), etc.
[Data viewing ]
Hong Kong Stock Exchange released data showing that as of last Friday, the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Futures Index (September) was 144,575, and the net open position number was 44,440. The Hang Seng Futures Index Settlement Date on September 29, the periodic index settlement will be settled in this week.
Judging from the distribution of goods in the streets of Hang Seng Index , the 17933 point is located at 17933. The area of bull and intensive certificates is close to the central axis, and the area of bear and intensive certificates is remote, and the market continues to weaken. Last week, FOMC raised the policy interest rate by 75 points, which was expected, but the revised forecast, the newly launched dot map and Powell's press conference remarks expressed a tougher policy attitude, which was beyond the market's expectations. The U.S. stock market continued to bottom out, and the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index was bearish this week.
[Editor's Commentary]
continues the views of the previous issues of this magazine, and now focuses on the marginal improvement of the domestic real estate industry. Excerpted from Minsheng Securities' team's opinion is as follows:
"The current real estate sales data has not yet shown the obvious improvement that the market believes is. But as we mentioned in many previous reports: Since "protecting and subsidizing buildings" and strengthening local responsibilities on July 28, some cities have successively issued different real estate relief plans, but the path to improving demand is gradually becoming clear. If investors believe that the real estate problem will be solved, then real estate and some The sectors related to the macroeconomic will be the most beneficial assets. If the real estate problem is exposed, considering the relationship between real estate and local finances, residents' balance sheets and exchange rate , the delayed feedback of risks will affect other industries. However, looking at the stock asset pricing , a large number of sectors actually do not consider this systematic problem from the asset price. From this perspective, no matter what paths are described above in the future, the most relevant part of China's macroeconomics will be Domain (including real estate) may be relatively dominant. "
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