Russia's suicide drone has achieved excellent results since it was put into the Ukrainian battlefield. Even American military experts have to admit: " Russia's drone attack has caused serious damage to Ukraine's military and economic facilities. "
In order to deal with Russia's suicide drone, the Ukrainian military has tried its best to make full use of all the air defense systems that can be used, but also dispatched fighter to attack the drone. The results are still there, a statement from the Ukrainian Air Force said that they have destroyed at least 223 suicide drones launched by Russia so far. This type of drone is called "Geranium-2" in Russia. The Ukrainian military said that these drones are witnesses-136 suicide drone (or roaming ammunition/ cruise missile ) developed by Iran's Shahd Aviation Industry Corporation, but Iranian denies this statement.
According to Ukrainian data, the 223 drones they intercepted account for 85% of the total number of drones deployed by Russia. In terms of interception rate, this data is generally considered relatively high, but the actual situation is that even if only 15% of suicide drones hit Ukrainian targets, it is still enough to cause significant damage and achieve Russian military goals. In an air battle, the MiG-29 fighter sent by Ukraine was directly destroyed by Russian Geranium-2.
△On October 12, the Ukrainian Air Force lost a MiG-29 fighter in Vinnica Prefecture in In order to intercept these drones, Ukraine has made all the means, but it is still difficult to achieve results. It is called "unreasonable" in such a drone attack method. So now Ukraine chooses to "join if you can't beat it" and has begun to use suicide drones to counter Russian military targets.
Cheap drone and expensive missile
Russian suicide drone in Ukraine made the commanders of NATO scratch their heads in sorrow. The problem now is not that NATO cannot provide Ukraine with enough air defense systems to intercept these drones, but that using these expensive missiles to intercept these cheap drones is really painful for NATO commanders. Therefore, since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its current "drone war stage", the cost of weapons will obviously become one of the key factors that determine success or failure.
△The downed Russian Geranium-2 drone
NATO commander William Alberque said at a press conference: " is difficult and expensive to defend against cheap suicide drones. At the same time, attackers can choose a variety of strategies to cause the greatest damage. "
There are generally two tactics for suicide drones: one is that a large number of drones attack different targets from unexpected directions; the other is that a large number of drones flock to attack the same target from all directions. actual combat results show that no matter what tactic it is, it is a nightmare for the defense. Suicidal drones themselves are indeed fragile, but in number, they make up for this vulnerability. The huge drone cluster often makes Ukrainian air defense systems lose sight of each other, thus missing drones that intercept certain truly important targets of attack.
As mentioned above, a "Geranium-2" drone even crashed into a MiG-29 fighter, which fully reflects the huge military potential of this cheap drone - it does not need to be too precise, it just needs to hit the fighter without brainstorming - imagine a scene where more than a dozen or dozens of suicide drones target a fighter, and you can understand how much headache this drone has given the Ukrainian Air Force.
For Ukraine, building a reliable drone air defense system is as expensive as a missile air defense system. Using conventional air defense systems to defend against drones also faces the problem: the advantages of are always in the hands of the offensive party . Because for every $1 cost of the offensive side to perform the offense, the defender spends $10 cost to defend, and this asymmetry has caused the defense to suffer losses.
The United States has done similar experiments.In 2017, they purchased a consumer-grade drone from the Amazon shopping website for about $200, and then tried to use this drone to invade the US military's air defense system. As a result, the US military used Patriot air defense missiles to destroy the drone. The single PAC-2 missile that destroyed the drone costs between $2 million and $4 million, which is a very shocking price.
Of course, NATO does not only use Patriot missiles to defend against drones. They have also tried to use some electronic warfare weapons to destroy the flight control system of drones. Cheetah-style air defense tanks are also considered effective. The cost of these anti-drone weapons is relatively low, but there is still a lack of actual combat effectiveness testing.
Russia's two-handed preparations
Ukraine has been beaten to death by Russia's suicide drone. They have gradually realized that passive defense or "asking for more air defense weapons from NATO" has no future, and they also need to actively take offensive measures . The so-called offensive measure is to "learn" from Russia and use similar suicide drone tactics to attack Russia's military targets.
So, with the advancement of this "drone war", Russia is also facing a similar problem to Ukraine: How can defeat the attack of Ukraine's small suicide drone?
Russia has prepared a two-hand plan for this. One is the equipment called the Antimaidan-Rubezh anti-drone complex; the other is a special "anti-drone" drone.
Solution ①: Antimaidan-Rubezh Anti-UAV Complex. There is still little information about this plan at present. It is very likely to be an anti-drone electromagnetic weapon system, which has a longer range and higher accuracy than the conventional anti-drone electromagnetic gun , and is also equipped with some other comprehensive anti-drone kits. According to existing news, the cost of such a system can be controlled within US$100,000, which is much more cost-effective than air defense missiles.
△Russia's RLK-MC Valdy UAV detection and confrontation combat complex
solution ②: "Anti-UAV" UAV. Recently, the Russian Strategic Missile Force Military Academy applied for a new patent, a new type of drone, a " hunter drone " specializing in anti-drone counter-drone. At present, the specific technical details of this kind of drone have not been revealed, but some clues can be seen from Russia's previous anti-drone designs - they are usually a drone with conventional firearms, some will be equipped with rifles, and some will be equipped with automatic shotguns. In scenarios where low-altitude slow drones are intercepted, shotguns are often more suitable than rifles. These drones generally require relatively strong target search and locking capabilities, and need to be able to independently search and fire targets in the air. If they are not hit, they will continue to track the target and determine the time to fire again. In the experiments that Russia has done, this "hunter drone" chased a multi-rotor drone and finally shot it down with a shotgun.
△"Flying AK47" UAV Hunter
Whether Russia adopts solution one or two, its cost will be far less than that of the defense system based on air defense missiles. Despite this, intercepting small drones with low cost and numerous numbers is still not easy. NATO commanders believe that the best solution to deal with opponent drones should be to target their launch locations (such as launch bases, launch vehicles, etc.) for direct strikes, which requires very sufficient intelligence support and is not an easy task.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has developed to this stage, and drones have become the biggest winner.
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