On May 11, CATL (300750) stated at the 2019 annual performance briefing that it is expected to officially supply power batteries to Tesla in the second half of the year, which means that the domestic Model 3 will be confirmed to use domestic batteries.
Previously, it was reported that the standard battery life version of Tesla will use CATL's lithium iron phosphate battery to replace the current ternary lithium battery. This move will reduce the cost of the domestic Model 3, which is also highly consistent with the previous timing of Tesla's promotion of domestic parts. According to the plan, by July this year, the localization rate of domestic Model 3 parts will exceed 50%, reaching 100% by the end of the year.
Domestic Model 3 bicycle cost is only 180,000
Split Tesla's industrial chain. Its main components include traditional parts (frame, power system shell, etc.), circuit systems (electrical circuits and thermal circuits), power battery materials (negative electrode materials, wet diaphragms, etc.), accessories (interior, seats, tires, glass), etc. After all domestically replaced, the direct cost of new cars will be reduced by 30% in the future.
In addition, Tesla also has low-cost funds and preferential policies in China. The construction cost of Shanghai's super factory is 65% lower than that of the US Model 3 production line, thereby reducing the cost of depreciation and amortization. Based on several aspects, the cost of domestic Tesla is at least 20% lower than that of American Tesla. According to previously released data, the cost of a bicycle with standard version of Model3 in the US factory is 230,000 yuan, so the cost after complete domestic production is about 184,000 yuan.
financial report shows that Tesla's gross profit margin of automobile business in the first quarter of 2020 reached 25.5%, a 5.3% increase from 20.2% in the same period last year. The gross profit margin of automobiles and the company's overall gross profit margin (20.6%) both hit new highs in the past 18 months.
If Tesla is willing to price the vehicle at this gross profit margin in the future, the price before the new car is about 230,000 yuan, which is at least 20% lower than the current subsidy of 291,800 yuan before the current subsidy. Including the 20,250 yuan national new energy subsidy, the price of domestic Model 3 cars with standard battery life under ideal conditions will be less than 210,000 yuan. When will the long-range version of
be reduced to less than 300,000? Compared with the standard battery life version, if the price difference is appropriate, consumers are more inclined to buy a long battery life version with a range of 668 kilometers. After all, in today's domestic new energy market, the standard battery life version of 446 kilometers is indeed not enough.
On April 23, relevant national departments have just issued a new policy on subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2020. The amount of new energy subsidies will decline to varying degrees based on the range. At the same time, the new policy also stipulates for the first time: the guide price of vehicles that can enjoy new energy subsidies in the future shall not be higher than 300,000 yuan, and the transition period from April 23, 2020 to July 22, 2020 is set.
This means that from July 22 this year, if the long-range version is still sold at 366,550 yuan before the subsidy, the current 22,500 yuan new energy subsidy will no longer exist.
However, it is certain that the long-range version will have to be at least cancelled after the subsidy is cancelled in July. Tesla will need to reduce its price by more than 22,500 yuan to ensure that the price of new cars is not higher than the current 344,050 yuan. After all, at this stage, the higher the price in the automobile market, the higher the price will only discourage consumers who hold coins and are waiting to buy it. The ideal state for
is that after the domestic production rate of parts of the long-range version rises at the end of the year, the price of 366,500 yuan before the subsidy will be directly reduced by 65,500 yuan, causing the price of new cars to drop to less than 300,000 yuan. In this way, you can enjoy a national subsidy of 22,500 yuan, and the price after the final subsidy will not be higher than 277,500 yuan.
has a price difference of about 60,000 yuan from the standard battery life version sold at that time, which is about 60,000 yuan. This is feasible in terms of cost, product layout and subsidy threshold.
After all, the state subsidy "can't eat" is more anxious than the car owners.
Who will Tesla snatch the market?
In the domestic new energy passenger car market of 250,000-300,000 yuan, Tesla Model 3's biggest direct competitor in the future is Xiaopeng P7. It has a longer battery life and a higher model positioning than Tesla, but the identity of the new force may still discourage many consumers who hold coins and are waiting to buy.
In addition, the share of high-end domestic new forces such as BYD (002594) Tang, as well as NIO ES6 and Ideal ONE will also be further eroded. Although the vehicle type is very different from Tesla, no one will not hesitate about cheaper prices and higher-end brands.
However, the market for new energy vehicles is still on the rise overall, so BYD, NIO and others are likely to have room for development. However, fuel vehicles of the same price are not so lucky. The automobile market was shrinking, and now Tesla has begun to lower prices again. The market will be in danger in the future. Especially in first- and second-tier cities where BBA sales are concentrated, fuel vehicles that are restricted by licenses and traffic restrictions have lost to the starting line.
Although Tesla's value retention rate, battery life and other aspects are still incompatible with some fuel vehicles, Tesla has considerable advantages in price, performance, technology and vehicle usage costs in the future.
In the United States, Tesla Model 3 successfully seized the share of BBA and became the most popular luxury brand mid-size car. I believe that in China, the automobile market will also usher in a hand-to-hand battle, and BBA entry-level models such as BMW 3 Series , Audi A4, and Mercedes-Benz A-class will face major challenges.
