Reporter of the Economic Business: Zhang Huaishui, editor of the Economic Business Business: Chen Xu's import and export growth rate fell by 9.6% compared with the same period last year, and the trade deficit reached 42.59 billion yuan - my country's foreign trade started this ye

Reporter of the Economic Business: Zhang Huaishui Editor of the Economic Business Business: Chen Xu

Import and export growth rate decreased by 9.6% compared with the same period last year, and the trade deficit reached 42.59 billion yuan - my country's foreign trade started this year with a relatively severe situation.

Relevant person in charge of the General Administration of Customs stated in interpreting the foreign trade data in the first two months that the decline in foreign trade imports and exports is mainly affected by factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the extension of the Spring Festival holiday. "my country's economic and trade have strong resilience and inertia, coupled with the shipment period of commodities and the pace of imports of enterprises, imports only decreased slightly in the first two months, and the impact of the epidemic on imports is not obvious."

While the total foreign trade value declined, my country's imports and exports to ASEAN grew against the trend. In the first two months, the total trade value between my country and ASEAN was 594.11 billion yuan, an increase of 2%. ASEAN surpassed the EU to become my country's largest trading partner, accounting for 14.4% of my country's total foreign trade value.

Data source: General Administration of Customs

Director of the Regional Economic Cooperation Research Center of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute Zhang Jianping said in an interview with the reporter of " Daily Economic News " that the growth rate of imports and exports in the first two months has declined, on the one hand, due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday, which is a common phenomenon. On the other hand, the holiday factors are superimposed by the impact of the epidemic, and logistics and transportation outputs are lagging behind, which is equivalent to extending the impact period.

Comparison of the total import and export value of the first two months with the same period last year (unit: billion yuan)

Data source: General Administration of Customs

The epidemic has a great impact on the trade of intermediate goods

According to customs statistics, in RMB, in the first two months of this year, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% from the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%; the trade deficit was 42.59 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year that of surplus was 3293.48 billion yuan.

The comparison between the import and export growth rate in the first two months and the same period last year (%)

Data source: General Administration of Customs

in US dollars. In the first two months, my country's total import and export value was US$591.99 billion, a decrease of 11%. Among them, exports were US$292.45 billion, down 17.2%; imports were US$299.54 billion, down 4%; the trade deficit was US$7.09 billion, down 41.45 billion in the same period last year.

Zhang Jianping told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the current impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on my country's exports is significantly greater than that of imports.

First of all, the epidemic has led to slow resumption of work after the Spring Festival, and previous orders are not in time to produce, so the snatched orders may face the problem of lag in logistics and transportation.

On the other hand, the decline in exports is also affected by external international factors. "In order to prevent and control the epidemic, some countries have strengthened quarantine and even refused to allow freighters to arrive by port. These have had a significant impact on my country's exports."

JD Digital Technology Chief Economist Shen Jianguang said that Japan, South Korea, the EU, and the United States are important trading partners of China. Once the epidemic continues, the possibility of a serious decline in overseas demand cannot be ruled out, which will have a significant impact on China's exports, especially the trade in intermediate goods.

"From the high-frequency data on export container freight rates, as of February 28, freight rates for exports to the Middle East and Europe fell more severely than before the Spring Festival. We speculate that the overseas epidemic has initially affected foreign trade." Shen Jianguang said.

Data source: JD Digital Technology

Zhang Jianping also believes that the epidemic may have a greater impact on my country's intermediate goods trade, because China is a major exporter of raw materials, and the raw materials or intermediate goods produced by many countries come from China. "For example, some Indian companies said that the supply of some drugs can only last for another month because they cannot get the raw materials from China."

According to customs statistics, in the first two months, labor-intensive products such as mechanical and electrical products and textiles and clothing fell. In the first two months, my country's mechanical and electrical products exported 1.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 14.9%, accounting for 58.8% of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its components were exported 138.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 26%; mobile phones were 100.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.2%. Textiles were RMB 96.23 billion, down 18.7%; plastic products were RMB 56.99 billion, down 14.8%.

Some major export commodities categories and their amounts (unit: billion yuan)

Data source: General Administration of Customs

Export decline may continue until the second quarter

Director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce Li Xingqian said at a press conference at the end of February that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused "severe challenges" to the current foreign trade operation. Affected by poor logistics in the early stage and delays in construction, coupled with the Spring Festival factors, it is expected that China's import and export growth rate will decline significantly from January to February this year.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, believes that the impact of the epidemic on foreign trade may not have been fully revealed. After March, whether foreign trade enterprises can resume work and production on a large scale will still face considerable challenges. If they cannot resume work and production for a long time, foreign trade will still face huge pressure.

"At present, major foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are vigorously promoting the resumption of work and production, but foreign trade enterprises still face many problems, such as shortage of raw material supply and poor logistics and transportation." Bai Ming said.

Shen Jianguang expects that the decline in exports may continue until the second quarter, and corporate pressure cannot be underestimated. Since late February, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread significantly overseas, and Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran , have become the hardest hit areas, and there is no sign of effective control. At the same time, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the development of the epidemic in Europe and the United States.

"China is currently a key link in the global value chain, and the export of intermediate products and capital products occupies an important position. Major regional economies such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand are more dependent on China's export of intermediate products." Shen Jianguang said.

WHO reported on March 6 that as of 10:00 Central European Time on the 6th (17:00 Beijing time on the 6th), the number of new coronary pneumonia cases worldwide increased by 2,873 from the previous day to 98,192; the number of deaths increased by 99 from the previous day to 3,380.

According to statistics from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state public health departments, as of 7 p.m. Eastern Time on the 6th, a total of 324 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia, 14 deaths, and 10 cured cases have occurred in the United States. Among them, 85 new confirmed cases were added on the 6th.

Data source: General Administration of Customs

"Whether China's exports can rebound in the second quarter depends more on the trend of the global epidemic spread." Zhang Jianping said that European and American countries are the main targets of China's exports. If the epidemic in Europe and the United States is not controlled, it will inevitably affect my country's foreign trade field.

More than 80% of foreign trade enterprises have resumed work

According to customs data monitoring, the import and export value of foreign trade in February increased tens of thousands of times, and the number of declarations for enterprises declared and declared orders increased tens of times. According to a survey on 2,552 foreign trade sample enterprises, 80.6% of the enterprises have resumed work. At the same time, the import and export of private enterprises has decreased slightly and the proportion has increased.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in the first two months, private enterprises imported and exported 1.73 trillion yuan, down 6.6%, 3 percentage points lower than the overall decline, accounting for 41.9% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 1.05 trillion yuan, down 12.8%, accounting for 51.6% of the total export value; imports were 672.42 billion yuan, up 5.1%, accounting for 32.3% of the total import value.

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

General Administration of Customs believes that although the COVID-19 epidemic has caused a certain impact on foreign trade imports and exports in the short term, my country's foreign trade development is highly resilient, and enterprises' adaptability and market development capabilities are also very strong. During this period, the company has actively negotiated with foreign parties to appropriately extend the order delivery period and complete the order tasks through overtime. Relevant departments have also successively introduced a series of policy measures to support enterprises to overcome difficulties.

For example, the General Administration of Customs has introduced a number of policies and measures to ensure zero-delay customs clearance for epidemic prevention and control materials, respond to the impact of the epidemic to promote stable growth of foreign trade, and support the development of China-Europe freight trains and comprehensive bonded zones, fully supporting the resumption of work and production of foreign trade enterprises and stable growth of foreign trade.

Zhang Jianping told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the impact of the epidemic on the foreign trade field is temporary, and the fundamentals of China's stable and positive foreign trade have not changed. "For enterprises, during this period, we must make full use of government policies and business association resources, strengthen international coordination, and minimize losses."

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