Tesla CEO Musk once bluntly stated that after the mass production of the 4680 battery, it made it possible for its company to produce the electric car , which is priced at US$25,000. You should know that domestic Tesla models are cheaper than the North American market, so how much does it cost to sell for the $25,000 Tesla after it is produced in China? You can boldly guess, if , BYD and Tesla sell at the same price, do you think BYD will panic?
September 2020 Tesla Battery Day, Tesla launched the 4680 cylindrical battery for the first time. Compared with the 21700 battery equipped on Tesla models on sale, the energy is increased by 5 times (just the energy of a single battery is increased by 5 times, not energy density), and the output power is increased by 6 times (same as a single battery). Under the same battery pack volume, the cruising range of the 4680 battery is increased by 16%. At the same time, the application of a series of innovative technologies such as poleless ears, dry electrodes, and demodulation can achieve the ability to charge from 10% of the power to 80% in 15 minutes, and the production cost will be reduced by 69%.
It is understood that power batteries account for about 38% of the total cost of electric vehicles, and the price of power batteries directly affects the pricing of electric vehicles. At the same time, battery technology is also the most critical factor affecting the safety, range, charging speed of pure electric cars. It can be said that the current competition between pure electric cars is also a competition of battery technology. What is the difference between Tesla's 4680 battery that is about to be mass-produced and BYD's most proud blade battery ?
has a big difference, but it is not big
Before comparing Tesla 4680 battery and BYD blade battery, we need to understand the types of batteries used in pure electric vehicles at present, which can be roughly divided according to two dimensions. According to the positive electrode material of the battery, it can be divided into lithium cobalt oxide , lithium manganese oxide , ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate , etc.; according to the battery structure, it can be divided into cylindrical, square and soft-pack batteries.
Among them, cylindrical batteries and square batteries are the most mainstream battery structures at present. Only a very small number of soft-pack batteries are equipped with car models, and the technology is not very mature. So in theory, what are the differences between cylindrical batteries and square batteries? As the name suggests, first of all, one is cylindrical and the other is square in shape, but the cylindrical batteries on the market are much smaller than square batteries. Therefore, in a battery pack of the same volume, compared with a square battery, cylindrical batteries require a lot of them to fill, and there are also many gaps between the cylinders, so that the grouping efficiency is not high.
monomer cylindrical battery has a higher energy density than square batteries and has a higher discharge power. However, since the grouping efficiency is not high, the ability density advantages of single-body cylindrical batteries may not necessarily be reflected in the vehicle's range in the end. As for whether the advantage of greater discharge power can be reflected in the acceleration performance of the vehicle, it depends on whether the power of the driving motor can keep up, including the charging speed. It also requires a high-power charging system to achieve a more blocked charging speed.
As for the advantages and disadvantages of safety or production costs, please refer to the following table:
In comparison, cylindrical batteries and square batteries do not have absolute advantages. It depends on the level of batteries designed and produced by the battery company. Moreover, from the current layout of battery companies, there is no trend of who will replace who, just like pasta will not replace rice.
And the 4680 battery and blade battery are actually cylindrical and square batteries that are currently better optimized, both of which make up for the strengths and weaknesses based on the original battery. However, the 4680 battery is not really mass-produced at present, but it is not a conceptual stage, because there have been reports from multiple sources that the Tesla Model Y equipped with 4680 battery will be delivered this quarter (North American market).
Currently, many pure electric models on sale of BYD have been equipped with blade batteries, and the technology has been optimized. Therefore, the specific difference between 4680 battery and blade battery must be implemented in the specific model. Whether it is range, charging speed, acceleration performance, or safety, it has no direct relationship with the battery structure. More depends on the positive electrode material of the battery, the setting of the three-electric system and the control of curb weight.
So can you really buy Tesla in the future with tens of thousands of yuan?
If the 4680 battery is installed, the range will increase by 16%, and charge from 10% to 80% in 15 minutes will indeed bring a certain impact to the existing pure electric car market. But the most fatal thing is that the production cost is reduced by 69%. Buying Tesla or BYD in the past 10 years will become an interesting question.
But I personally think whether you can buy Tesla worth tens of thousands of yuan in the future depends on whether the large-scale production of the 4680 battery is smooth. Moreover, due to the high R&D costs and the sharp fluctuation in the price of battery raw materials, the price of Tesla models that are finally equipped with 4680 batteries may not necessarily be surprising.
Of course, the price of Tesla models also fluctuates with the fluctuation of costs, so when the mass production of 4680 batteries is smooth, including the recent China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Association forum, Ouyang Minggao mentioned: The supply and demand balance of lithium resources may return to normal in 2-3 years. And Guoxuan Hi-Tech Li Zhen mentioned: With the improvement of battery recycling technology, when the total demand for raw materials for manufacturing batteries and the total supply of materials provided by recycling batteries reaches equilibrium, humans will no longer need to ask for unlimited resources for battery manufacturing from nature.
In addition, in this year's China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Conference forum, although well-known battery companies have expressed their support for large cylindrical batteries (4680 type batteries), it seems that large cylindrical batteries will become the future trend. But at the same time, CATL released the third generation CTP (Cell to Pack) technology (also a relatively representative square battery), which is called "Kirin Battery" internally. Its system weight, energy density and volume energy density continue to lead the industry's highest level. With the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared to the 4680 system. However, regarding specific information on the technology of "Kirin Battery", relevant staff from CATL said that they will announce it at the press conference in April.
Since in order to further reduce costs, some models will also be equipped with square batteries provided by CATL, it is not ruled out that "Kirin Battery" will also be used on Tesla models. On the surface, Tesla with a value of more than 100,000 is just around the corner.
