August 15, according to the market trend chart, the exchange rate of offshore RMB has been fluctuating and falling recently. From August 11, as of 14:2 on August 15, in three trading days, the offshore RMB exchange rate has fallen by 531 points, and has once again advanced to 6.7800, reaching 6.7720. What is the reason?
Regarding this issue, the editor thinks that the reason why the offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to fall in recent times is many reasons. Among them, the most important reason is that the dollar index has stopped falling and rebounded recently.
According to the market trend chart, from August 12 to August 15, at 14:6, in two trading days, the US dollar index rose by 738 points, that is, the US dollar appreciated by 0.7%.
Recently, the reason why the US dollar index "stops the decline and rebounds" is most likely due to the sharp cooling of the market expectations of the US economy " stagflation ".
August 10, the US side announced that the unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in July fell by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month. Immediately afterwards, the next day, on August 11, the United States announced the July PPI annual rate, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5 percentage points.
data shows that the US unseasonalized CPI annual rate in July was 8.5%, with an expected value of 8.7%, and a previous value of 9.1%. The US PPI annual rate in July was 9.8%, with an expected value of 10.4%, and a previous value of 11.3%.
That is to say, in July, both the consumer price index and the producer price index were declining, which indicates that the inflation pressure in the United States has eased.
However, before the U.S. inflation data in July was released, the pessimism of the "stagflation" of the U.S. economy was very serious, especially from July 15 to August 11, the US dollar index continued to fall because of this reason.
According to the market trend chart, from July 15 to August 11, in the past month, the US dollar index fell by 3,561 points.
At the same time, around this period, the United States successively announced the unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in June and the initial value of the second quarterly GDP annualized quarterly rate in the United States. Data shows that the US unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in June was 9.1%, while the initial value of the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the second quarter was -0.6%.
Due to the release of these two economic data, the pessimism of "stagflation" in the US economy has greatly heated up, which forced the US dollar index to continue to fall.
Everyone knows that in the first and second quarters of 2022, the reason why the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the United States' real GDP recorded a "negative value" is "integrity" due to the continued rise in inflation in the United States during this period.
data shows that the initial values of the annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP in the first and second quarters of 2022 were -1.4% and -0.9% respectively; from January to June, the annual annual rates of the US unseasonal CPI in each month were 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, and 9.1% respectively; from January to June, the annual annual rates of the US PPI in each month were 9.7%, 10%, 11.2%, 11%, 10.8%, and 11.3%, respectively.
In July, the US unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate fell by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, and the PPI annual rate fell by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, which cooled down the pessimism of the US economy's "stagflation", thereby boosting the US dollar index and forcing the offshore RMB exchange rate to continue to fall in recent days.
In addition, last Friday, my country's economic data for July released by China was "mixed and mixed", which may also be a reason for the continued decline of the offshore RMB exchange rate in recent days.
data shows that China's annualized M2 money supply in July was 12%, with an expected value of 11.4%, and an expected value of 11.4%. Judging from the data, in July, my country's M2 money supply annual rate was not only "higher than" market expectations, but also increased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous value.
However, in July, the scale of social financing in my country was not only "lower than" market expectations, but also decreased by 4417.2 billion yuan compared with the previous one.
data shows that China's social financing scale in July was 756.1 billion yuan, with an expected value of 1300 billion yuan, and the previous value was 517.33 billion yuan.
At the same time, in July, my country's new RMB loans decreased by 2127.3 billion yuan month-on-month. Data shows that China's new RMB loans in July were 679 billion yuan, with an expected value of 1100 billion yuan, and the previous value was 2806.3 billion yuan.
html In July, due to the scale of my country's social financing and the sharp reduction in new RMB loans, the market expectations for my country's economic growth have cooled down, forcing the offshore RMB exchange rate to fall sharply in recent days.Therefore, the editor feels that the reason why the offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to fall in recent days is mainly due to the combined effect of these factors. What do you think about this? Is it consistent with the editor's point of view?
