In 1972, the United States and Japan signed the "US-Japan Textile Trade Agreement", and at this time Shinzo Abe was still continuing his high school education. Abe, who was keen on geography research in his spare time, would never have thought that the early enteritis he suffered would have to give up his position as prime minister in the future, and it was twice. What he would not have thought at the time was that the 1972 trade agreement was just one of the reasons why he would need to face the Japanese economy like a stagnant in the future...
At 17:00 local time on Friday (Friday), Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a press conference saying that he decided to resign in order to avoid the deterioration of the old disease and expressed his apology to all Japanese citizens. Previously, Japan's economic data for the second quarter of 2020 showed that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, Japan's GDP in the second quarter fell by 7.8% month-on-month and 27.8% year-on-year, setting a new record of decline.
Abe once said that he had suffered from enteritis when he was in junior high school. The statement and apology on the 28th seemed to be Abe's final response to this illness. What Abe still left behind is a sluggish economy, which is far from the cause of the new crown epidemic, but also from Japan's stubborn disease of losing economic initiative after World War II.
"Surplus Monster": The United States was born by feeding it himself
△ On August 14, 1945, Emperor Hirohito announced that he would accept the Potsdam Proclamation of the Allies and surrender to the Allies
1945, due to Japan's defeat in World War II, the United States, as a victorious country, issued the "U.S. policy toward Japan in the early post-war period" and occupied Japan alone. Since then, it has begun the so-called "demilitarization and democratization" transformation against the entire Japanese society. Japan has thus become a "partial sovereign" country. However, in order to compete with the Soviet Union, the trial and accountability liquidation of World War II war criminals stagnated. Instead, the US government controlled Japan by winning over and cultivating the old Japanese chaebols and war criminal families that had launched an aggressive war, in order to make Japan a bridgehead against the Soviet Union.
△In 1960, Nobusuke Kishi (left) and then-US Secretary of State Hort signed a treaty.
Abe's grandfather Nobusuke Kishi was in the Kanto region during the war of aggression against China. He was known as the "Manchurian Five Gang" together with the then Chief of Staff of the Kanto Army Hideki Tojo and the other three other war criminals invading China. However, after the end of World War II, he was considered by the United States as the best candidate for the pro-American faction in Japan, and was exempted from prosecution. He formed the Japanese Democratic Party in 1954 and served as the Secretary-General. In the same year, his grandson Shinzo Abe was born. In 1957, Kishi Nobusuke became the Prime Minister of Japan, which has since begun the history of Kishi Nobu and the Abe family as Japanese bureaucratic families after World War II.
△ Mitsui Zaibashi-cho, Nihonbashi-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo: Mitsui Zaibabashi is one of Japan's four monopoly Zaibabashi, developed by the Zaibabashi ruled by the Mitsui family. After World War II, the chaebol promoted Japan's modernization process. Currently, there are 25 core companies under its jurisdiction, including well-known Japanese companies such as Sakura Bank, Toshiba, and Toyota Motor.
In 1949, Joseph Dodge, then financial adviser to the Occupy Army and president of the Bank of Detroit in the United States, proposed an economic route for post-war transformation of Japan during his stationed in Japan, known in history as the "Dodge Plan". The plan is mainly divided into three aspects: one is to control Japan's domestic demand, reduce excess purchasing power, and expand exports; the second is the United States' investment in Japan and expand production; the third is also the most important thing, that is, adopt a single exchange rate system to fix the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar at 360:1, cancel subsidies, and restore the market mechanism. The "Doge Plan" was originally formulated during the US occupation for considerations of US political and economic interests, but objectively laid the foundation for Japan to have strong industrial production capacity and become an export-oriented country in the future. But the formulation of a single exchange rate and the substantial loss of economic sovereignty have laid hidden dangers for Japan's economic weakness for 30 years since 1990.
Shortly after World War II, the United States brazenly launched the Korean War, and the production capacity of some Japanese military-industrial enterprises serves US orders. According to statistics, the Korean War brought Japan $2.4 billion in "special demand" revenue. After the Japan-US Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement (MSA) came into effect, between 1954 and 1967, Japan received a total of 576 billion yen in military aid, which is equivalent to 27% of Japan's total military supplies purchases during the same period.In addition to directly bringing economic benefits, military aid also indirectly brings advanced industrial technology and production capacity to Japan. Taking the optical industry as an example, after obtaining a large number of telescope orders from the United States, Japan Optics and Tokyo Optics also obtained independent production and development of military optical scopes, aerial cameras and other technologies, which also laid a technical foundation for the later shift of Japanese military technology to civilian use. The single exchange rate allows Japan to simply improve production efficiency and produce goods at a lower cost, thereby promoting exports.
△ From 1956 to 2016, Japan's GDP growth rate
The above reasons have made Japan's GDP average annual growth rate in the early post-war period as high as 9.2%. In addition, in the 1950s and 1970s, in order to make the company's labor more stable and train skilled workers to improve production efficiency, Japanese companies generally adopted a lifelong employment system and an annual wage system, that is, the older employees, the higher their salary. These systems also objectively accelerated the development of Japan's economy.
△The official website of Chengqi Academy published an article interviewing Shinzo Abe when he was studying at the school
It was also during this period that the young Shinzo Abe followed the arrangements of his elders and came to the aristocratic school of the children of Japanese bureaucrats and chaebols, Chengqi Academy (at that time it was a consistent college including elementary school, junior high school and high school, and now Chengqi University), and spent 16 years here. Because he was born into a political family and aristocratic school, Abe's education quality when he was a child was higher than most of his Japanese peers. From elementary school to junior high school to high school and college, Abe studied basketball, kendo and archery. It was also during this period that the young Abe witnessed the rise of Japan's economy. Because he was born into a political family, Abe graduated from elementary school and wrote down his ideal of becoming a politician on his future dream list.
△ From 1947 to 2003, the total amount of education and cultural funds in Japan's annual annual education and cultural funds (left) and the proportion of education and cultural funds in that year's fiscal expenditure (right)
In Japan at that time, the educational resources enjoyed by Abe could not benefit Japan in general, but the Japanese government's investment in education and cultural funds gradually increased. In 1956, the proportion of Japan's education and cultural expenditure reached 12.4%, and it maintained a proportion of more than 10% for a considerable period of time.
△The enrollment rate of Japanese high schools and universities and short-term universities in 1954 in 1974
The enrollment rate of Japanese high schools and universities and short-term universities increased from 50.9% and 10.1% in 1954, and rose to 90.8% and 34.7% in 1974. This further provides talent guarantee for Japan's subsequent all-round industrialization and industrial upgrading.
The "Dodge Plan" has a more prominent impact on expanding Japan's exports, allowing Japan to develop an export-oriented economic model. Since the 1970s, Japan has been in a trade surplus for many years.
△ From 1979 to 1985, Japan's trade surplus with the United States was in a surplus for most of the other periods except for Japan's foreign trade deficit from 1973 to 1975 and 1979 to 1980. Especially from 1981 to 1985, Japan's foreign trade surplus expanded sharply, from 2004.8 billion yen in 1981 to 1087.07 billion yen in 1985, reaching more than five times.
△Shizo Abe (right)
Japan's strong manufacturing industry has also begun to erode the US market, which has also triggered the United States to continue to trade suppression on Japan for 40 years. It was also during this period that Abe began to hear voices from the other side of the Pacific, either directly or indirectly. When Abe obtained his undergraduate degree in political science from Chengqi University in 1977, he was just in time to catch up with the US restricting color TV exports to Japan. In the same year, Abe went to the United States and studied at the School of Public Policy of the University of Southern California. However, in just three semesters, Abe dropped out and returned to Japan and came to work in a steel company in Kobe. At this time, Japan's steel industry had been bound by two trade protection agreements signed by the United States and Japan.
Thorns in the eye: Behind the 15 "301 Surveys",
The United States' suppression range is very wide. From 1957 to the 1990s, the United States has imposed export restrictions on Japan in six different industries, including textiles, steel, household appliances, automobile manufacturing, semiconductors, and telecommunications. Behind this is the reduction of the comparative advantages of the US manufacturing industry brought about by globalization.
△Starting in the 1980s, a series of boycotts against Japanese goods broke out in the American society
In the 1970s, the stimulus of war on US consumption and economic growth completely disappeared, the dividends of the first round of scientific and technological revolution triggered by atomic energy and electronic information technology disappeared, and the fierce international competition brought about by economic globalization caused the United States' trade surplus to continue to decrease. Coupled with the outbreak of two oil crises, American society began to experience 13 years of economic stagflation.
△U.S. GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate from 1961 to 1980 (left) U.S. foreign trade gap from 1961 to 1980 (right)
1970's U.S. GDP growth rate was 0.2%. In 1974 and 1975, the U.S. GDP growth rate had dropped to -0.5% and -0.2%, a significant decrease from the 1960s. At the same time, inflation in the United States is becoming increasingly serious. The growth rate of US CPI in 1961 was only 1%, while by 1974, the growth rate of US CPI had reached 11%, and by 1980, the growth rate of US CPI had reached 13.5%. In 1971, the US foreign trade deficit began to show a deficit. In 1978, the US foreign trade deficit widened to US$29.763 billion.
△The proportion of Japan's exports to the overall GDP after World War II (left) Japan's foreign trade gap after World War II (right)
It was also during this period that the US dollar experienced many crises. In 1971, then-US President Nixon stopped foreign governments and central banks from using the US dollar to exchange gold to the United States, triggering the collapse of the gold standard Bretton Woods system established in 1944, which was established, and Western European countries began to sell the US dollar in a frantically manner. At this point, countries have begun to adopt a floating exchange rate system. As Japan, which enjoyed the great convenience of a fixed exchange rate system, adopted a floating exchange rate system in February 1973. However, as of 1978, the yen rose to 194.3:1 against the US dollar, which was as high as 85.28% in the seven-year cumulative appreciation compared with 1973.
△In the 1980s, Japanese household appliance marketing global
However, simple exchange rate changes still did not stop Japan's trade surplus from continuing to expand. With its manufacturing advantages and upgraded industrial structure, Japan's trade surplus with the United States continued to grow rapidly after 1983. In 1979, Japan's trade surplus with the United States was 1315.8 billion yen, expanded to 4323.2 billion yen in 1983, and expanded to 936.93 billion yen in 1985. But on the other hand, while continuing to maintain the trade surplus, Japan's trade exports are also heavily dependent on the United States. In 1979, Japan's exports to the United States accounted for 26% of Japan's total exports. By 1985, the proportion had increased to 37%, and Japan's exports had been increasingly dependent on the US market.
△Shitaro Abe (right) and Shinzo Abe (left) take the Shinkansen train
At this time, Japan naturally became a thorn in the United States. In the more than ten years since 1976, the United States has launched 15 "301 investigations" against Japan in accordance with Article 301 of the "U.S. Trade Act" issued in 1974, covering automobiles, steel, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, etc. Shinzo Abe truly entered the Japanese politics in 1982, and from 1982 to 1986, the one who led Japan's diplomacy and trade was Abe's father Shintaro Abe and then Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone. Faced with the aggressive trade restrictions in the United States at that time, Shintaro Abe's compromise also seemed to herald the future of Shinzo Abe.
Until 1985, the United States finally introduced the Plaza Agreement, but what ultimately brought Japan's long-term high trade surplus with the United States to the end was the mistake of Japanese decision makers.
Square Agreement: The end of carnival and the prelude to desolation
In July 1985, the finance ministers and central bank governors of five developed industrial countries, the United States, Japan, the former Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom, held a meeting at the Plaza Hotel in New York to reach a joint intervention in the foreign exchange market by five governments, achieving a depreciation of the US dollar, and thus solving the problem of the huge trade deficit in the United States.
△The finance ministers of the five countries of the United States, Japan, the former Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom and the governors of the central bank held a meeting at the Plaza Hotel in New York
The reason why Japan participated in the Plaza Agreement was because it hoped to use this to get rid of further US trade restrictions on Japan.But Japan obviously underestimated the impact of this agreement. At that time, Japanese Finance Minister Tori Takeshita once said, "It doesn't matter if the yen rises to 190 to 1!" The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was still maintained at 240:1, that is, the Japanese government is still extremely optimistic about the room for the yen to appreciate in the future. Within three months after the Square Agreement came into effect, the US dollar depreciated rapidly, and the Japanese yen exchange rate against the US dollar rose rapidly from 250:1 in 1985 to 200:1. In 1987, less than three years after the Square Agreement came into effect, the Japanese yen doubled against the US dollar, reaching 120:1.
△In 1986, the average housing price in Tokyo soared by 120%. At the peak of the property market in 1991, the housing prices in downtown Tokyo reached 14.5 million yen per square meter. When housing prices were in their heyday, the land price in the 23rd district of Tokyo was enough to buy the entire United States.
Due to concerns about the appreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan made a more fatal mistake - excessive monetary policy easing, which triggered a subsequent crazy investment and consumption boom across Japan, and also kicked off Japan's "bubble era". In just one year from 1986 to 1987, after the Japanese government cut interest rates for five consecutive times, the central bank's rediscount rate dropped to 2.5%, which directly led to a sharp increase in corporate financing. According to statistics, between 1985 and 1989, the amount of financing for Japanese companies increased by 5.5 times.
△ Rockefeller Center, Manhattan, New York City, USA,
In addition, in order to make up for the decline in export decline caused by the appreciation of the yen, a large number of Japanese export companies borrowed low-interest loans from banks while blowing up the bubble. This also created a once-profit boom in the late 1980s: Mitsubishi invested $850 million to buy 51% of the shares of the Rockefeller Center in New York, which Americans regarded as a "symbol of America" and "symbol of prosperity" by Americans; Sony Company used $3.4 billion to acquire Hollywood Columbia Film Company, Samsung Film Company and Hamburg Four Seasons Hotel; Panasonic Group spent $6.1 billion to buy all the shares of Universal Pictures in the United States; Shuwa Co., Ltd. won a huge amount of money to acquire Citi Plaza in Los Angeles and Van Gogh's famous painting "Sunflower". Afterwards, the ABC Building, Mobile Petroleum Corporation headquarters and Citibank headquarters all changed hands and became property under the name of the Japanese.
△ During the bubble economy, due to the appreciation of the yen, even if it was only one street away from its destination, people would rush to take a taxi
Historical data from the US Federal Bureau of Statistics showed that from 1980 to 1988, Japan's direct investment in the United States increased by more than 10 times, with US $285 billion in US direct assets and securities assets, and controlled more than US $329 billion in US banking assets (accounting for 14% of the total US banking assets at that time). This phenomenon is particularly serious in California, one of the most prosperous regions of the U.S. economy, where 27% of banking assets and 30% of outstanding loans are owned by the Japanese.
△1981-1999 Nikkei 225 Index trend
At the same time, the growth of the Japanese stock market is also crazy. In 1983, the Nikkei average index was 8,800 points, rose to 16,400 points in 1986, breaking through 20,000 points in January 1987, and reached an all-time high of 38,957 points at the end of 1989. By March 1987, the total market value of the Japanese stock market had reached US$2688 billion, surpassing the United States to rank first in the world. At that time, the total market value of global stocks was US$7467 billion, and Japan accounted for 36%.
After a large amount of funds flowed to the real estate market and the stock market, they created a huge superficial prosperity. The wealth of the Japanese also increased wildly during this period. However, the high-return stocks and real estate formed a huge contradiction with the export-oriented economic system formed by Japan after World War II. The heat of the first two swallowed up the liquid currency needed to develop industry.
△ Since the early 1990s, Japan ushered in a long period of economic downturn. Facing the huge bubble in Japan's real estate and stock markets at that time, everyone realized that the bursting of the bubble was just a matter of time and method. With the implementation of the austerity policy from 1989 to 1990, Japan's economic bubble burst and Japan's economy began to decline rapidly. Earlier liabilities, aging and low birth rate, and bank bad debts and zombie enterprises have also emerged. Since 1991, Japan's GDP has declined rapidly, and by 1993, Japan's GDP growth rate has fallen to 0.17%.During this period, Abe experienced the economic decline in Japan, his father's death, and inherited his father's and grandfather's connections and political resources as a county councillor.
△Japan's real GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate from 1991 to 2011
Since the bursting of the Japanese economic bubble in the early 1990s, until 2011, the Japanese economy continued to be sluggish. During the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008, Japan's GDP growth rate even dropped to negative. This period of time was also called "the lost 20 years in Japan." After entering the millennium, Japan's economy still shows no sign of improvement. Relying on the mantle of his grandfather and father, Shinzo Abe became the chief cabinet chief of the then Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2001. Since then, Shinzo Abe was regarded as the successor and trained by Junichiro Koizumi.
△1991-2011 Japanese government debt
In order to cope with the stagnation of economic development, the Japanese government continues to use active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies to drive the economy. During this period, the Japanese government introduced more than 20 emergency economic measures, with a cumulative amount of more than 200 trillion yen in fiscal investment, but its effectiveness was only to increase the debt of the Japanese government.
△Japan fiscal and social security expenses expenditure from 1981 to 2017
After the huge bubble burst, the consumer confidence of the Japanese people continued to be sluggish, and the tradition of high savings also made it difficult for the consumer market to revitalize. In terms of industry, many Japanese companies are also subject to the lifetime employment system and hierarchy system, making it difficult to improve their competitiveness and innovation capabilities. Companies that are difficult to afford high labor costs even use a large number of "temporary workers" to reduce expenditures. In addition, aging and the previous lifelong employment system have caused the government and enterprises to increase more affordable expenditures, further increasing Japan's economic burden. Japan's economy has not been boosted for a long time, and the people have been unable to emerge from the bursting of the bubble in the 1990s, which has also led to Japan's continuous changes in prime ministers from 1989 to 2012. Except for Junichiro Koizumi, who took office in 2001, who was able to serve as the Prime Minister of Japan for 6 years with his slightly effective economic policies. In the 13 years from 1989 to 2001, Japan replaced 10 prime ministers, with an average of no more than 16 months in office. After Junichiro Koizumi stepped down in 2006, the global economic crisis that followed brought the position of Japanese Prime Minister back to the frequent replacement of seven ministers in six years.
"Abe Economics": A brief superficial prosperity
On December 26, 2012, Shinzo Abe served as Prime Minister of Japan for the second time. As early as 2006, after Junichiro Koizumi stepped down, Abe took over as his successor to his position as prime minister. However, due to the old enteritis disease, Abe resigned after only one year in power. Abe, who came to power for the second time, brought new economic policies differently than the first time. Because Abe personally promoted it as prime minister, the policy is called "Abenomics."
△Shizo Abe and his "three arrows"
2012's "Abe Economics" is mainly divided into three parts. Abe called it the "three arrows", which are large-scale quantitative easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms to promote private investment. Their means are to achieve the depreciation of the yen from the outside to promote exports and to achieve inflation to boost consumption. In essence, the so-called "Abenomics" idea and traditional economic theory rely on active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies to improve market currency circulation and promote investment and consumption, but the size of Abe's version is unprecedented. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who took the lead in implementing the quantitative easing plan in 2013, even named the plan "Serial Dimension Quantitative Easing", which means an unprecedented radical quantitative easing policy that transcends time and space, breaks through history, and is unprecedented. Previously, during the Koizumi government, Japan adopted excessive quantitative easing policies, and the base currency volume rose from 69 trillion yen in 2001 to 112 trillion yen in 2006, an increase of 43 trillion yen in five years. The quantitative easing implemented by Abe after taking office increased the amount of base currency by 132 trillion yen in two years, and his radical intentions were clear.
△ Since 2013, the Bank of Japan has mainly purchased government bonds, ETFs and J-REITs. At the same time, in terms of fiscal policy, Abe has implemented a larger-scale asset purchase, growing at a rate of 50 trillion yen per year on government bonds alone. In October 2014, it expanded to 80 trillion yen, and long-term government bonds were added. 40-year government bonds were also regarded as the purchase target. Such a large-scale purchase of government bonds and issuance of currencies has led to a certain recovery and growth of Japan's economy from 2012 to 2014.
△Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index from 1990 to 2018
According to data from the Japanese Cabinet Office, Japan's economic expansion started from December 2012 to October 2018, and lasted for 71 months. During this period, the number of unemployed people decreased significantly, wages increased, and corporate profit margins also increased. Data from a French financial institution shows that under the stimulus of "Abenomics", the relative depreciation of the yen has led to the increase in the number of tourists to Japan. Data shows that between 2011 and 2014, the number of tourists to Japan has more than doubled, and the total expenditure of tourists to Japan has also increased by nearly 150%.
△Japan is deeply involved in aging, and the social labor is not very dynamic
In response to the chronic diseases of Japanese society - low fertility rates and aging, Abe updated his content on "Abe Economics" and launched the "New Three Arrows", including free day care, providing care subsidies, etc. Although it is still difficult to solve Japan's inherent social problems, Abe's relatively flexible means have also allowed him to become the longest-serving prime minister in Japan's history on August 24, 2020.
Abe's series of policies have made people see some hope for the recovery of Japan's economic situation. The rise in stock markets also seems to "certify" the effectiveness of "Abe's economics". But is this really the case?
△Bank of Japan supports the proportion of government debt
The final result shows that such radical fiscal policy and monetary policy have increased Japan's debt burden. According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, as of 2019, Japan's total debt accounted for 238% of Japan's GDP, and its total debt has exceeded twice the total economic volume. Such large-scale debt and radical monetary policy are almost disproportionate to the amount of economic growth and inflation achieved. In addition, data shows that the two rounds of quantitative easing started in March 2013 have injected nearly 300 trillion yen of base currency into the market, but as of March 2016, the total difference in current account of the Bank of Japan was as high as 27 billion yuan, and its actual effective currency amount was far less than the amount of additional currency issuance. The price Abe paid to achieve his goal of promoting economic growth and inflation is huge. After entering 2018, "Abenomics" showed a weak trend due to Japan's severe aging, the people's low expectations for the future, and the decline in labor vitality. On the premise that Japan's domestic demand is difficult to increase, it is difficult for the Japanese economy, which is heavily dependent on foreign demand, to be driven through fiscal and monetary policies.
"Waterloo": Abe, Trump and Tokyo Olympics
Trump who took office in 2017 made Abe, who was seriously dependent on the United States, suffer a Waterloo. On January 23, 2017 local time, US President Trump announced his withdrawal from the TPP, which means that the advocate of the TPP, with the largest economic scale, withdraws. Forced by the withdrawal of the United States, Japan, as the country with the largest economic scale in the TPP at that time, began to dominate its operations and renamed it to CPTPP on November 11, 2017.
△U.S. President Trump signed a presidential decree to announce the United States withdrew from TPP
In the same year, Trump also initiated trade negotiations with Abe on the content of the "US-Japan Free Trade Agreement", which involved Japan's relaxation of standards for importing American cars, canceling import restrictions on American potatoes and other crops, and reducing Japan's trade surplus with the United States. All trade negotiations require Japan to unilaterally open the market to the United States. By March 2018, Trump negotiated with Abe on the exemption of tariffs on importing Japanese steel and aluminum products. In September of the same year, Trump held bilateral trade negotiations with Japan on agricultural products. By October 2019, Trump directly "requested" Japan to buy $7 billion worth of corn.
△On August 21, 2016, then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe personally took the stage to participate in the "Tokyo Eight Minutes" and play "Mario".
In addition to the strength of the United States in economic and trade, what Abe unexpectedly did not expect was that the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, which he promoted mainly, was also forced to postpone due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Since taking office in 2012, Abe said: "We must make the Olympics a trigger to eliminate Japan's 15-year deflation and economic recession." Three years later, at the closing ceremony of the Rio Olympics, Shinzo Abe, as prime minister, personally appeared in the "Eight Minutes of Tokyo" and played the well-known Japanese virtual character "Mario". In 2020, Abe entered its eighth year of administration, and the benefits of "Abe Economics" are declining. When the United States begins its deglobalization strategy, Japan, as an export-oriented country, has become increasingly significant economic downward pressure, which makes Abe regards the Tokyo Olympics as a life-saving straw for boosting the economy.
△ During the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan launched a tourist stimulus activity of "Go To Travel" in July under downward pressure
Travel to Japan in 2020 will contribute 0.15 percentage points to Japan's potential economic growth rate. The Olympic Games held at this time are regarded as an extension of "Abenomics". In order to host this Olympic Games well, Japan spent seven years building various venues and infrastructure in Tokyo, and continued to invest in the Olympics despite the huge fiscal deficit caused by the implementation of "Abenomics" to expand public spending. According to statistics from the Japan Economic Research Center Research Institute, Japan has invested US$32 billion to US$41 billion in building competition venues and increasing hotel passenger capacity alone. However, the global pandemic of the new crown epidemic has turned Abe's life-saving straw so much into a yellow flower tomorrow. In addition, the epidemic is becoming increasingly serious, and Japan is getting deeper and deeper in the dilemma of economic stagnation.
△Abe took a car to leave the hospital
Coincidentally, on August 17, after Abe came to Yingqing University Hospital for 7 hours of examination and treatment, the Japanese Cabinet Office released Japan's GDP for the second quarter of 2020. After excluding price changes, Japan's real GDP in the second quarter of 2020 further decreased by 7.8% compared with the first quarter, and its annual rate fell by 27.8%, setting a record for the worst since World War II. In addition, the data for the second quarter also showed the decline in personal consumption in Japan, with personal consumption falling by 8.2% month-on-month and exports falling by 18.5%. Abe's health is the same as the Japanese economy and suffers from a "Waterloo" together.
"The Lost Thirty Years": Can Japan recover it?
August 28, if the Tokyo Olympics are held as scheduled as planned, it should have ended for 20 days at this time, and the reconstruction and demolition of temporary venues should have been almost done. But the COVID-19 epidemic has completely failed the Abe government's Olympic plan.
The rise of trade protectionism led by the United States, the impact of the new crown epidemic, the postponement of the Olympic Games, the high aging of the high aging of domestic demand, and the high debts of the years of implementation of "Abe's economics" have all made Abe difficult in his eighth year of administration.
After becoming the longest-serving prime minister in Japan for four days, Abe chose to resign due to health reasons. It is not known whether the several replacement candidates who are rumored to pursue "Abenomics", but the clock will not stop, and the "lost thirty years" is moving towards a longer time...
