"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" (Shanghai, reporter Xu Hong) reported that 's performance continued to grow, and the stock price rose accordingly, but there were still people shouting "disappointment". Why is this?
htmlOn the evening of 10th, Hualan Biological (002007.SZ) released its unaudited financial report for 2020. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 5.023 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.604 billion yuan, an increase of 35.76% and 25% respectively over the same period last year.Among them, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the operating income reached 1.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.74%; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.28%.
Specifically, the company achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 247 million (-4.71%), RMB 264 million (+6.86%), RMB 452 million (-0.96%), and RMB 640 million (+100.28%) respectively.
Hualan Bio said that the main reason for the growth in performance was the significant increase in the vaccine business revenue and net profit of the company's holding subsidiary Hualan Bio Vaccine Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hualan Vaccine").
Public information shows that Hualan vaccine is the largest influenza vaccine production base in my country. The vaccine products currently on the market include influenza virus lysis vaccine, tetravalent influenza virus lysis vaccine, H1N1 influenza virus lysis vaccine, ACYW135 group meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, recombinant hepatitis B vaccine (Hanxun yeast), and group A group C group meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine.
It is worth noting that for the annual performance operating report card given by Hualan Bio , although many people think it is "consistent with expectations", some people can't hide their disappointment, and believe that the company's performance is lower than expected.
"In 2020, due to the epidemic, influenza vaccines were out of stock and difficult to receive, so the market expectations were very high before."
"Originally expected a net profit of 1.8 to 2 billion yuan for the whole year, but now it is 1.6 billion yuan, so I can only say that it is a balance. I waited for a long time, but the result was so, and I was very disappointed." An investor who has been following the company for a long time told the reporter of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily.
is consistent with this. A reporter from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily noticed that while expressing his "optimism", some securities companies have also adjusted their profit expectations for Hualan Bio from 2020 to 2022, among which the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2020 and 2021 was lowered.
According to China Securities' previous expectations, the net profit attributable to shareholders of Hualan Bio will be RMB 1.718, RMB 2.09 and RMB 2.385 billion, respectively, an increase of 33.89%, 16.93% and 18.71% year-on-year; the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders will be RMB 1.604, RMB 1.931 and RMB 2.461 billion, respectively, an increase of 24.96%, 20.43% and 27.39% year-on-year.
A positive performance report, different market interpretations
vaccine sales have driven Hualan Bio 's performance to increase significantly, and the biggest "meanor" is the quadrivalent influenza vaccine. Compared with the original trivalent influenza vaccine, the quadrivalent vaccine has a wider range of prevention and higher market acceptance, so it will form a certain substitution for the trivalent influenza vaccine.
Hualan Bio quadrivalent influenza vaccine was approved for listing in June 2018. The company is also the first approved manufacturer in China to have this type of vaccine. Data shows that since its launch, Hualan Bio's quadrivalent influenza vaccine has continued to increase, of which the total number of batches and issuances in 2018 and 2019 reached 5.12 million and 8.36 million respectively.
In 2020, the batch issuance of Hualan Bio quadrivalent influenza vaccine was 20.62 million, a significant increase of 146.45% year-on-year.
htmlOn 11, a reporter from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily learned from other quadrivalent influenza vaccine manufacturers that there was no abnormality in the batch issuance of domestic influenza vaccines in 2020, and the batch issuance of 20.62 million quadrivalent influenza vaccines in Hualan Bio that year was also in line with expectations.demand exists, sales volume is normal, but profit is not as considerable as expected, so various speculations have emerged in the market.
"It is said that it cost more than 200 million yuan in 2020, and the company has hidden its performance." Some investors said.
. Judging from the third quarter report of Hualan Bio , in the first three quarters of 2020, the company's sales expenses did increase significantly, reaching 567.3 million yuan, an increase of 93.27% year-on-year (293.5 million yuan in the same period last year). Among them, the sales expenses in Q3 were 481.7 million yuan, an increase of 150% year-on-year.In comparison, in the first three quarters of 2020, Hualan Bio's operating income was 3.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only about 16%.
Hualan Bio said that the main reason for the increase in sales expenses is the increase in sales revenue of vaccine products by subsidiary Hualan Vaccine Company and the corresponding increase in sales promotion consultation fees.
However, some people have raised objections to this, believing that since this is the case, the market expects that the company should make adjustments after the company's third-quarter report is released. In addition, some investors and industry insiders have given another speculation.
"It should be that when the market estimates the company's performance in 2020, it did not consider the 'public market'." The aforementioned industry insider from a quadrivalent influenza vaccine manufacturer said. According to him, the bidding price of the "public market" of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine in 2020 will be much cheaper than the price of 100-130 yuan per purchase in the self-paid market, only 60 yuan per purchase.
At the same time, a bidding announcement for the 2019 Beijing free influenza vaccine (quadrivalent cleavage influenza vaccine) online showed that the procurement project plans to purchase 550,000 quadrivalent cleavage influenza vaccine, with a budget amount of RMB 33 million, which is converted into a single vaccine price of 60 yuan per unit.
The subsequent winning results show that the winning supplier of the procurement project is Hualan Vaccine Company.
However, judging from the current situation, the "public market" only involves some regions and the purchase volume is relatively small. Therefore, it is expected that the impact on the performance of related companies will still be limited in the future.
behind the rebound of stock price
Although the market interpretations of Hualan Bio 's performance in 2020 are different, under the expectation that the sales of quadrivalent influenza vaccine will continue to increase in volume, coupled with the large decline in the previous period, the stock price of Hualan Bio 11 has been rising all the way. As of the close, it was 40.04 yuan per share, up 7.23%. Previously, from the high of 54.5 yuan before the year to the low of 36 yuan recently, the stock price of Hualan Biologics has shrunk by more than 30% in one month.
In terms of the production capacity of quadrivalent influenza vaccine, before 2019, the company's designed production capacity was 15 million units per year, and increased to 30 million units per year in 2019. An insider revealed to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the production capacity of Hualan Bio's quadrivalent influenza vaccine will increase by another 10 million in 2021, but as of press time, the data has not been confirmed by the company.
At present, the application for Hualan vaccine to be split on the GEM has also been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on December 3, 2020. According to the company's plan, the funds raised will be used to expand the company's quadrivalent influenza vaccine production capacity to 100 million units per year, and the construction cycle of the project is 3 years.
On the other hand, in addition to the vaccine business, Hualan Bio has a large part of its business in blood products, accounting for more than 70% of its revenue (nearly 30% of its vaccine). At present, analysis is generally bullish on the performance of the blood products sector this year, which may also support the rebound of the company's stock price to a certain extent.
Guojin Securities believes that although the 2020 new crown epidemic has put some pressure on the collection and production and sales of raw materials in the blood products industry, Hualan Bio has actively adjusted and recovered, and it is estimated that the company's overall blood products sales will be stable in 2020.
"At present, the domestic epidemic has been well controlled. The prosperity of blood products raw material collection and production and sales in 2021 is expected to continue to improve. In addition, the import of overseas blood products is affected, it is expected to further enhance the scarcity and prosperity of domestic blood products." Guojin Securities said.
" Hualan Biological The total issuance volume of blood products in 2020 has declined, and the industry prosperity will moderately increase in 2021. Under a low base, the sector is expected to resume 10% growth. We are optimistic about the medium- and long-term development of this sector." Haitong Securities holds a similar view.
According to the blood product batch issuance data, starting from the fourth quarter of 2020, due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, imported albumin showed a significant and continuous decline. Imported albumin accounts for more than 60% of the domestic supply, so the decline in import volume will theoretically have a certain impact on the domestic supply and demand pattern.
Among them, in January 2021, 1.7391 million bottles of imported albumin were issued, a year-on-year decrease of 46.48%; while 1.7254 million bottles of domestic albumin were still positive growth of 11.7% year-on-year.
html In February, 1.511 million bottles of imported albumin were issued, a year-on-year decrease of 68.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.1%; during the same period, a total of 1.353 million bottles of domestic albumin were issued, a year-on-year decrease of 37.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 21.6%. Although the data also declined, the trend was not obvious. The market speculated that it may be more due to the decrease in the Spring Festival holiday.However, when talking about the later trend of the blood products market, compared with the optimism of the capital market, the attitude of industry insiders seems relatively conservative.
"In the long run, blood products will definitely be improving, but the degree will be different. However, although the import volume of albumin continues to decline, there is no obvious change at the moment, so we can continue to observe. In addition, there will be no large price changes in the short term, which is mainly determined by the price system of public hospitals and the long-term supply of the market." An expert in the blood products industry told the reporter of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily in this way.
