Source: Global Times-Global Network
[Global Times-Global Network Report Reporter Bai Yunyi and Chen Qingqing] According to Russian News Agency and other Russian media reports on the 8th, in the early morning of local time, an oil tanker fire broke out on the Crimea Bridge across the Kerch Strait that day, and some sections of the bridge were destroyed. According to the Russian Counter-Terrorism Commission, the accident occurred in a truck that caused a fire to the tanker. The Russian Federal Investigation Commission said it had filed a case for the explosion.
Analysts told a reporter from " Global Times " on the 8th that the destruction of the Crimean Bridge will become a landmark event in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and it may lead to Russia's high-intensity retaliation against Ukraine. This incident means the spiral escalation of the conflict, and the two sides of the war have become hostile to each other with "dead" attitude. It is worth mentioning that the Crimea Bridge incident is another act of destruction of critical infrastructure after the leakage of the "North Stream" pipeline. Once this method becomes the norm, it may mean that the security risks and global tensions faced by all countries will rise sharply.
According to the video images released by Russian News Agency on the 38th, after the incident, a fire broke out several meters above the Crimea Bridge, and many cars were filled with thick smoke, and the bridge deck collapsed and fell into the sea. According to the All-Russian Insurance Alliance, the losses caused by the Crimea Bridge incident were 200 million to 500 million rubles . Russian President's press secretary Peskov said it is not yet predictable when the Crimea Bridge will be repaired.
According to Crimean authorities officials, Ukraine should be held responsible. Up to now, Ukrainian officials have not publicly admitted that it was the Ukrainian army that launched the attack. However, the Ukrainian Air Force posted on social media, saying, "In the morning on the Crimea Bridge, the fuel tank caught fire. Some roads were destroyed! Everything will belong to Ukraine!" The director of the Ukrainian Presidential Office also tweeted, "The Crimea Bridge incident is just the beginning. All illegal things will be destroyed, all stolen things will be returned to Ukraine, and all Russian occupation will be expelled." Cui Heng, assistant researcher at the Russian Research Center of East China Normal University, analyzed to the Global Times reporter that the destruction of the Crimea Bridge may lead to Russia taking "high-intensity retaliation actions." He explained that because the Crimean Bridge is very important, Russia has issued warnings and drawn "red lines" many times before. If the Crimea Bridge explosion is ultimately proven to be a deliberate attack, it is a test of whether Russia can hold the "red line". "In the eyes of some people, Russia has no choice. Only using high-intensity retaliation can make the outside world believe in Russia's determination to draw the "red line" and stick to the "red line."
Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that Russia may take strong retaliation measures. He analyzed to the Global Times reporter that this means that the risk of attacks on civil infrastructure in the rear of Russia and Ukraine will increase greatly in the future, and the war trauma of both sides will be more difficult to heal. In contrast, Ukraine has weak protection and repair capabilities for civil infrastructure, and in the event of an attack, people's lives will be even more difficult.
Public information shows that the Crimea Bridge is a dual-purpose railway and highway bridge, which is the lifeblood of transportation connecting Russia's mainland and Crimea. It is 19 kilometers long and has a 7.5 kilometers crossing the sea. It was opened in May 2018. Russian President Putin attended the opening ceremony of the bridge. In the special Russian military operation, the Crimea Bridge has always played a key role in logistics support and troop delivery. The bridge is also considered a symbol of Russia's control over Crimea.
Recently, with the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Crimea Bridge has become one of the focus of the standoff between the two sides. In August this year, an explosion occurred near the Crimea Bridge, and Kerch City launched the air defense system . In August this year, Podoriak, adviser to the Ukrainian Presidential Office, said in an interview that the Crimea Bridge is a "legal target of attack" of the Ukrainian armed forces.Previously, Danilov, secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Commission, also stated that if Russia passes the route of the Crimea Bridge, Ukraine will definitely attack the Crimea Bridge once an opportunity arises. In response, Russian President's press secretary Peskov responded at the time that Ukraine's remarks were unacceptable.
How will the destruction of the Crimea Bridge affect the trend and power balance of the Russian and Ukrainian battlefields? Cui Heng told the Global Times reporter that the Crimea Bridge provides supplies and military supplies to the Russian troops in the direction of Khlsson and Nikolayevsk . The damage to the bridge directly affects the current Russian defense in Khlsson and its attack in Nikolayevsk, which is the main purpose of attacking the Crimea Bridge. "More importantly, in the Russian view, the Crimean Bridge is symbolic, representing Putin's reputation, the centripetal force of the Crimean people towards Russia, and the pride of the Russians. The attack on the bridge is intended to deal with a blow to the morale of the people of Russia."
However, Wang Xiaoquan believes that the headquarter of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is located in Sevastopol on on Crimean Peninsula, but the main logistics support and troop transportation of the Russian Army on the eastern battlefield in Ukraine did not come from the Crimean Peninsula, and the Crimean Bridge is only one of the transportation channels connecting the mainland of the Crimean Peninsula, and it can also be transported by ferries and other means. The damage to the Crimea Bridge has very limited impact on the situation on the battlefield and the balance of power.
According to Task , Russian News Agency and other media reports, traffic on the Crimea Bridge will be blocked until October 31. After the bridge fire accident, the Crimean authorities announced on the 8th that the local inventory of basic necessities can meet the amount used for two months, but to avoid rushing purchases, the sales of food and groceries will be restricted. According to the Russian Ministry of Energy on the 8th, Crimea's automobile fuel supply is sufficient, with the supply volume sufficient to last for 15 days. The relevant departments are currently working to ensure the continuous supply of local fuel.
It is worth noting that the explosion of the Crimea Bridge was another destruction of critical infrastructure after the "North Stream" pipeline leak not long ago. Analysts pointed out to the Global Times reporter that the above two incidents are both "off-trading moves" other than conventional military operations. "These 'off-trading moves' have been used, which is a very bad signal for the parties involved in the conflict to break the rules."
"In the short term, this means the spiral escalation of the conflict, and Russia and Ukraine have already shown an undying hostility. From a broader perspective, once the destruction of critical infrastructure becomes the norm in the future, the national security risks faced by all countries will rise, and the tension in the global situation will rise sharply." Cui Heng analyzed.
