"Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi" can be used to describe the changes in the current global chip industry structure.
Recently, TSMC has risen sharply. So far this month, the company's stock price has risen by 46.64%.
According to media reports, Intel has reached an agreement with TSMC to book the TSMC 180,000 6-nanometer chip production capacity next year. In addition, TSMC plans to mass-produce 3nm process in 2022.
. Previously, it was reported that Intel , which has always been known for its vertical integration (IDM) model, announced the delay in mass production of 7 nanometers and will use third-party foundry manufacturers to manufacture chips.
TSMC stock price hits new highs
As of the close of US stocks on July 27, Eastern Time, TSMC (TSM) rose 12.65% to US$83.25. TSMC latest total market value is US$431.7 billion, a sharp increase of US$82.4 billion in the past two trading days, or approximately RMB 577 billion. So far this month, TSMC has risen by 46.64%.
is in contrast to TSMC . The market value of Intel evaporated by about US$46.1 billion in the past two trading days, and the stock price has fallen by nearly 20%. Ambrish Srivastava, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said that the gap in each generation of semiconductor processes is called nodes, usually from 24 to 30 months. The delay in the development of the process this time makes Intel completely behind TSMC a node, "this means that the overlord of the semiconductor industry will be replaced in 4 to 5 years."
The US chip giant’s former glory is no longer
More than US chip giants are experiencing torture.
As the facade of the US chip industry, Intel has always led the development of global chip manufacturing. However, in the second quarter report released by Intel a few days ago, it said that the release of 7nm CPU will be delayed by another six months. Bob Swan, CEO of Intel , said that Intel has discovered a "defect model" in the development of 7nm process. There are some problems with this quality management method, which has led to a decline in chip yield. At the same time, Intel is evaluating a "retreat" to outsource some manufacturing links to tripartite wafer fabs.
Guosen Securities stated that as long as you start looking for third-party OEM, it means that Intel will not be able to return to its IDM model in the future. Intel Choosing TSMC Foundry is a suicide-like abandonment of the future. In the short term, the data center business can make up for the weakness of the PC side. In the long run, it is the end of an era.
According to media reports, Venkata Renduchintala, the executive responsible for almost all hardware of Intel and chief engineering officer of Intel , will resign on August 3 local time. The technology, system architecture and customer departments (TSCG) he led will be split into 5 teams.
Other chip manufacturers are not having a good time. The full-year financial report for fiscal year 2020 released by Nvidia in February this year showed that revenue was US$10.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7%; net profit was US$2.796 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. Nvidia started out as a gaming graphics card, and in recent years, the global market share of PC games has gradually been squeezed by mobile mobile games.
Similarly, among the Snapdragon 865 flagship 5G chip and Snapdragon 7 Series 5G SoC released by Qualcomm in December last year, only the mid-range series Snapdragon 7 series processors have priority in integrating 5G baseband, while the Snapdragon 865 chips, as the flagship series, do not integrate 5G baseband. Some market view is that in the context of the 5G era, Qualcomm's products are becoming less and less attractive.
China welcomes the dividend of the third industrial transfer
More than analytical institutions have previously pointed out that the global semiconductor industry is undergoing the third transfer, and China will be the core destination of this industrial transfer.
According to previous analysis by Evergrande Research Institute, as the birthplace of technology, the United States once led the development of semiconductors and integrated circuits worldwide. In 1986, Japan's DRAM market share reached 80%, surpassing the United States to become the world's largest semiconductor power, achieving the first industrial transfer. Subsequently, South Korea and Taiwan developed at the same time, seizing the demand generated by emerging memory and foundry during the transition period from mainframes to consumer electronics, and achieving a second industrial transfer.At present, China's integrated circuit development momentum is rapidly developing, and the third industrial transfer is towards China.
HuaChuang Securities pointed out that the next round of explosion of terminal demand will come from the Internet of Things scenario after 5G implementation, and countries or regions that can undertake a new round of semiconductor transfer need to have the following three characteristics: First, they have a mature 5G technology foundation; second, they have a broad terminal application market to realize IoT; third, they have strong government support. From this perspective, the third transfer of the semiconductor industry to my country will be an inevitable trend.
Ping An Securities stated that in 2019, my country's semiconductor equipment market space reached US$13.45 billion, with the domestic production rate only about 10%, and there is a lot of room for domestic production substitution. With the expansion of production capacity of wafer companies such as SMIC and the continuous progress of equipment companies, domestic equipment companies are expected to usher in a rapid growth period of performance.
Founder Securities pointed out that the semiconductor industry will continue to be the theme of domestic substitution for a long time. As upstream chip design companies choose to return orders to the country, competitive packaging and testing manufacturers will benefit substantially.
This article is from China Securities Journal
