The semiconductor sector has recently fallen "cliff-like" and the US Department of Commerce recently announced new export controls on Chinese chips, which basically allows all domestic chip companies to enjoy the same treatment as Huawei's second round of sanctions.

Semiconductor companies, many of which are Chinese Americans who return to China to start businesses. The revenue and tax payments of their companies are in China, and their customers are mainly Chinese customers. In addition to executives who may be American, they are basically authentic Chinese companies.

These people have only two choices: whether to choose a career to stay in China or choose the United States to leave the executive position.

This leaves domestic semiconductor listed companies a very big problem. Technical talents may be lost on a large scale.

The core of a technology-based enterprise is technical talents. It is necessary to catch up and lose a large number of technical backbones. If you want to catch up, it may be a long way off.

The market responded fiercely to this, and there were still calls for domestic substitution, but domestic institutions voted with their feet and sold stocks in large numbers.

The semiconductor sector continued to fall sharply, and many stocks hit the worst decline

On October 11, the semiconductor sector continued to fall. Anji Technology fell by more than 10%, Northern Huachuang approached the limit, and Zhichun Technology, Yak Technology , Ruixin Micro , Zhongwei Company , Xinyuan Shares, etc. followed suit. TSMC's stock price fell more than 7%, the biggest drop since May 2021.

Northern Huachuang hit the limit again today. Dragon Tiger List data showed that Shenzhen Stock Connect bought 177 million yuan and sold 483 million yuan. The two institutions had a net purchase of for 64.28 million yuan, and the four institutions had a net sale of 238 million yuan.

Northern Huachuang said that the overall impact of magnetoelectric technology being included in the "unverified list" this time is controllable and will not have a substantial impact on the normal operation of listed companies. The company will continue to pay attention and actively communicate with relevant departments and institutions.

Haiguang Information fell 19.25% today, with a turnover of of 1.682 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 21.30%. Data from the after-hours dragon and tiger list showed that the two institutions had net purchases of 49.636 million yuan and the five institutions had net sales of 505 million yuan.

Haiguang Information responded to rumors of US escalating control on September 28 that the U.S. export restrictions will indeed bring opportunities and challenges to the development of the domestic GPU industry.Judging from the disclosed financial data, the company's performance growth is inseparable from the support of national policies, opportunities for domestic substitution and growth in market demand, and also from the company's own leading core technology, professional team composition, excellent product performance and ecology, and high-quality customer resources.

The impact of US chip blockade is mainly summarized into three aspects:

First of all, finished chips restrict the supply of , Nvidia/ Qualcomm /AMD's advanced process chips will continue to be restricted from exports by the United States due to their strategic application areas. This is the first method of the United States' ban in each round.

Secondly, restricts chip foundry . Referring to the three-wheel blockade of Huawei, the second round is the foundry rights of wafer factory under the control of American equipment such as TSMC, which is equivalent to not helping you produce. Due to the lack of wafer factories in China, chips made of advanced processes cannot be produced.

Finally, capacity expansion limits , limiting China's acquisition of wafer foundry capacity, especially advanced processes, the United States will use its equipment killer weapon to limit the export of AMAT, LAM, and KLA, affecting the development of some production capacity.

Founder Securities Chen Hang believes that domestic companies have chosen foreign factories and technologies in the past, resulting in the failure of the domestic industrial chain to run. The chances of the US lockdown far outweigh the challenges.

The Chinese semiconductor industry, which is forced into a corner, will form three major "study groups" of design-factories, wafer fabs-equipment, wafer fabs-materials.

In addition, the population of 1.4 billion in China is PK 1 billion in Western Europe + Japan and South Korea + North America, the population of STEM engineers is several times that of the latter. Combined with the advantages of late-developing countries, the upstream equipment, materials, parts, large chips, and EDA/IP of domestic wafer factories will usher in a new stage of development.

At this moment, it is necessary to review the history of the United States suppressing the Japanese chip industry, which may be useful for us.

The United States successfully curbed the Japanese semiconductor industry in the last century and

Since the 1960s, in order to reduce production costs, American semiconductor companies have begun to offshoring low-end links such as assembly and processing.

In the 1980s, Japan's efforts to carry out research and development were very effective. Japanese semiconductor companies such as Japan Electric , Toshiba and Hitachi rose strongly, directly weakening the international competitiveness of similar American companies. At that time, "the yield rate of Japanese chips was much higher than that of the United States." The yield rate of leading companies NECh, Toshiba and Hitachi was 6 times higher than that of the United States.

Correspondingly, the share of the United States has been declining. In 1975, American companies still accounted for 75% of the global integrated circuit market. By 1980, their share dropped to 66%, and by 1986, their share was further reduced to 55%.

The US military believes that Japan's development must be curbed. All advanced weapon systems in the United States are based on chip technology, so the United States must protect the leading position of the local chip industry.

In 1977, American semiconductor companies jointly established SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association), concentrating their efforts on lobbying US congressmen to increase pressure on the Japanese semiconductor industry, and sued Japanese semiconductor companies many times to threaten US national security. In the trade of

, Japanese semiconductor companies are strictly prohibited from dumping at low prices in the US and other markets, imposing 100% punitive tariffs on imported products, breaking up the Japanese chip industry alliance, fines to leading companies such as Toshiba, banning exports, closing factories, etc. With a combination of punches, companies can basically not bear it.

also supports competitors and transfers technology to South Korea and Taiwan. With the help of the United States, South Korea's Samsung , SK Hynix and other companies have successfully risen. Taiwan, China also took advantage of the situation during this period. In 1987, Zhang Zhongmou founded TSMC and later became an industry giant.

In the field of lithography machine , which was surpassed by Japan, the United States also fought against Japan by supporting Asmer of Dutch .

Finally, in 1992, Intel in the United States once again became the world's largest semiconductor company, and in 1993, the United States once again became the world's largest chip exporter. Under the all-round suppression of the United States and Japan's own multiple factors, Japan's semiconductor industry continues to decline.Japan's share in the global semiconductor market fell to 25% in the early 21st century, and Japan's share in the global market was only 6% in 2021.

Professor Li Wei of the National People's Congress Guoguan School summarized it very well, "Technical control, financial control and market control together constitute the three cornerstones of the US semiconductor industry hegemony, ensuring that the United States still has strong industrial power in the context of relatively recession of industrial competitiveness."

If we learn from the history of Japan-US semiconductor friction, the United States' suppression methods and upgrade routes of China's semiconductor industry are basically the same as at that time. They all start from a single leading company, expanding individual gray incidents suspected of violating the so-called laws of the United States, focusing on cracking down on leading companies. At the same time, with the cooperation of the industry and the media, a so-called "national security threat theory" social public opinion atmosphere is created, laying the foundation for the government to implement various sanctions, and at the same time, it also kidnapped government decisions to a certain extent.

This article is from Tonghuashun Finance