Since the Russian-Ukraine War, Europe has been worried about how to spend its winter, and the recent explosion of Beixi 2 has made Europe's already difficult situation even worse!
Nord Stream 2 pipeline was completed in 2021 and is parallel to Nord Stream 1 . It is built from Russia to Germany, and then transports natural gas from Europe to European countries. Therefore, the energy used by many countries in EU is mainly oil and natural gas, while Russian oil and gas resources with high quality and low price have become Europe's first choice!
Beijing No. 2
German even withstood the pressure from the United States and shut down nuclear power projects, and also needs to repair the Nordic 2 project. It can be seen that Europe relies heavily on the natural gas transported by Russia. Now, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 have been blasted one after another, and the maintenance time cannot be determined, which will cause further price increases in Europe's natural gas and trigger larger and more fierce protests!
protesters
At this time, whoever can't stand it first will collapse first!
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So why does Europe rely so much on Russia's energy? First of all, it must be because of Russia's geographical factors. As the largest country in the world, Russia has the smallest population and cannot use up domestic resources no matter what!
Moreover, Russia spans two continents of Asia and Europe, and it is very convenient to transport natural gas to Europe. Therefore, after so many years of energy business, Russia has built a very complete oil and gas transportation facility, which is convenient for oil and gas transportation, and relatively affordable costs and prices. If Europe wants to buy oil and gas resources from anywhere, it will increase costs. Of course, Europe will not do things that go far and cost higher!
Some countries' dependence on Russian energy will be difficult to cut off for a while. Take Germany as an example. 55% of natural gas comes from Russia, and Russian energy has been extended to Germany's daily life and industrial production. This is why many people in European countries took to the streets to protest after learning that there was no Russian oil and gas supply.
There is another big reason, that is, Europe cannot find a suitable replacement. Since Russia took countermeasures, Europe has not thought of other methods, such as importing from the United States, but the transportation of oil and gas resources in the United States is relatively inconvenient and can only be transported by sea ships!
, especially natural gas , shale gas supply, liquefied gasification facilities are expensive and the construction cycle is long. If you choose Middle East oil and gas supply, even if it is stronger than the United States, the construction of transportation facilities requires time and cost investment. In short, European countries just can't find a choice that can replace Russian oil and gas, which is also the most fundamental reason for the panic among the people.
Nowadays, it is a disaster for Europe. After the explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline, it welcomed news that OPEC countries will significantly reduce production in November in early October. OPEC decided to reduce oil production at this time, with the main purpose of boosting the price of crude oil . The global oil price has been downward in recent times. OPEC is worried that oil prices will fall further, so it chooses to adopt a strategy of reducing volume and maintaining prices!
Take Saudi Arabia as an example. After the production cut in 2020, the oil income of Saudi grew rapidly in 2021, and the international oil price has remained above US$100 per barrel before July 2022. Although the cost of oil extraction in Saudi Arabia is only about US$10!
, Saudi Arabia's vision for 2030 proposes to get rid of the dependence of the oil economy, but Saudi Arabia needs to invest money to stimulate economic development, and also build new industrial and commercial cities such as NEOM in the future. It also needs to continue to provide financial support to countries such as Egypt , Sudan , and so on. Therefore, international oil prices need to be kept at a high level.
NEOM Industrial and Commercial City rendering
Since June 2022, international oil prices have continued to fall, so reducing oil production and boosting market prices are the economic driving force behind OPEC's decision to reduce oil production this time following Russia.Of course, once this strategy was released, it immediately caused dissatisfaction from the United States. After all, oil has always been linked to the US dollar, and now the issuance of this strategy is more like a "reversal" by the oil powers!
The United States has maintained a relationship with Saudi Arabia to exchange national defense and security for oil control. Since the agreement was confirmed in 1945, the United States has been providing strategic security protection for Saudi Arabia for more than 70 years, and Saudi Arabia has opened up its huge domestic oil resources to the United States. Although there were occasional frictions between the two sides during
, the United States has been accusing Saudi Arabia on the grounds of human rights issues. Saudi Arabia has also launched a global oil crisis against the United States, but the basic logic of this friendly relationship has never changed.
By the 21st century, what really changed the balance of power between the two sides was the "shale oil revolution" initiated by the United States!
With the large-scale application of horizontal well , the United States' crude oil production has risen rapidly, and in 2018 it exceeded 10 million barrels per day and became the net exporter of crude oil in . It is ranked alongside Saudi Arabia and Russia as the country with the highest crude oil production in the world. This situation has been maintained until Biden took office in . Since Biden became the United States, he has publicly expressed strong dissatisfaction with Saudi Arabia!
The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia is getting farther and farther away. This year, in order to deal with the energy crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian incident, the United States has frequently interacted with Saudi opponent Iran . Biden continues to promote the actions of the new Iran nuclear agreement, which has led to Saudi dissatisfaction.
The ally Saudi Arabia, which is gradually moving away, brought OPEC member states to a collective rebellion. When the United States publicly sanctions on Russia, they did not come forward. Even on this energy issue, Saudi Arabia and other countries are even more inclined to cooperate with Russia. How can the United States not be angry?
This time OPEC's decision to reduce production can also be regarded as a protest by major oil powers against Western countries led by the United States. However, combined with the explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline, it seems that all negative factors are targeting Europe. Now that Russia's energy supply is suspended and oil price costs are rising, European countries rack their brains to deal with it!
At present, the EU is increasing its efforts to purchase coal from South Africa and other countries, hoping to make up for the market gap. However, even if coal is imported from other countries, the cost is not something that European countries can afford. Now Europe is about to usher in a cold wave. Under the premise that heating cannot be guaranteed, many Europeans have to seek other heating methods to cope with this year's cold winter!
Some people purchase wood, some people purchase coal, but some people are still focusing on China's Yiwu electric blankets. According to statistics, China's exports of electric blankets to Europe have increased by 97%. Unexpectedly, the war of sanctions by various countries has made us get a big advantage. It is really impermanent!
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