Zhejiang News Client | Correspondent Song Bing Reporter Zhang Fan
BDI index ushered in a "good start". Data source: Baltic Exchange
Shipping market has been in a resurgence. The aftermath of the "surge" of international container freight rates since last year has not yet come. After the Spring Festival, bulk freight rates have risen rapidly again, which has once again attracted close attention from relevant parties in the shipping market.
"We need to be wary of the risks brought by the recurrence of the dry bulk freight market last year." On the afternoon of March 10, at the "Commodity Freight Derivatives Risk Management Online Salon" held by Ningbo Shipping Exchange, from Singapore Exchange , Baltic Exchange, Luzheng Futures, FIS (Freight Investor) Industry "giants" such as Services gathered in the "cloud" to call on this and called for "upper and downstream enterprises in the shipping market to pay attention to and master more financial tools to cope with market uncertainty and hidden risks."
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Zhongzhai Ore Bulk Terminal
Iron ore, coal and grain transportation is active, pushing up the BDI index
China is the world's most important commodity demand country. During the Spring Festival shutdown every year, the global dry bulk shipping market will go through a long period of traditional off-season. However, this off-season this year only lasted for one week before the Spring Festival.
The Baltic dry bulk index (BDI), which measures the prosperity of the commodity transportation market, quickly rebounded. The average index in the first week after the Spring Festival rose to 1,704 points, up more than 25% in two weeks, and the highest was 1,770 points during the period. Among them, the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) rose to 2518 points, the highest level since September 2010.
is a strong contrast with it. In the first quarter of last year, as the traditional off-season of the transportation market, coupled with the sudden impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the dry bulk transportation market was impacted. The Baltic Capeland Index (BCI) has been in a negative range for 42 consecutive days since the end of January 2020, and fell to an unprecedented -372 points as low as March 9, 2020.
Entered 2021. With the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures in various countries and the launch of new crown vaccination plans one after another, global economic activities have gradually resumed.
Not only that, in order to get out of the shadow of the epidemic as soon as possible, the United States and European countries have introduced economic stimulus policies to varying degrees, and the global economic expectations are better than last year. Under the influence of potential demand, bulk bulk prices continued to rise, and participants' confidence gradually recovered.
The industry is generally optimistic about the development prospects of the bulk bulk transportation market this year. According to shipping consulting agency Clarkson, demand for iron ore sand transportation will increase by 2.4% this year, and demand for coal transportation will also change from a decline of 10.4% last year to a growth of 4.6%, and the annual demand for bulk transportation increased by 4%.
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Chuanshan Container Terminal
Bulk bulk freight rates are rising day by day, which may continue to push up
BDI index, and bulk freight rates are rising day by day.
htmlOn December 27, a person from a bulk carrier transport company in Shanghai said that the daily rent of a 58,000-dollar ship had risen to US$18,000, which was nearly 80% higher than in early February. The company's 30,000 to 50,000 die-to-be-class ships mainly carry goods such as grain, coal and steel materials.
From the perspective of the sub-index, the capes-type ship that boosted the BDI index was still the largest capes-type ship. The Baltic Capeland Index (BCI) jumped 427 points to 1912 on February 17, reaching a three-week high. This type of ship usually carries 180,000 tons of diptons, and the cargo transported is mostly iron ore and coal.
Pei Hongbin, assistant director and chief black analyst of Luzheng Futures Research Institute, analyzed that due to the impact of various factors such as the epidemic, supply recovery has slowed down, resulting in a significant increase in foreign import demand.
At the same time, China once again played the role of a world factory due to its effective control of the epidemic.Pei Hongbin pointed out that "the increase in exports and strong domestic demand for raw materials have increased the demand and prices of shipping." Various signs also indicate that commodity freight rates in 2021 are still full of the urge to continue to rise. Due to the uncertainty of new environmental protection regulations such as the epidemic and ship flue gas desulfurization, the new shipbuilding orders for bulk carriers in 2020 fell by 54% year-on-year, and the new capacity was limited. Some industry insiders estimate that the ship tonnage will only increase by about 1.5% in 2021.
The world's largest ship service company, Clarkson, predicts that the demand for dry bulk shipping market will grow by 4.4% in 2021, but the supply will only increase by 1.3%, indicating that market demand is significantly greater than supply. Under the gap between
, what is hidden may be the stormy waves of shipping dry bulk freight market this year.
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Shulanghu Ore Terminal yard
hedging value preservation hedging freight rate rise and fall is a choice
BDI index is calculated by weighted spot freight for bulk carriers on major routes around the world. These bulk ships mainly transport steel, pulp, cereals, coal, ore sand, phosphate ore, bauxite and other biological materials and industrial raw materials.
Industry insiders believe that the dry bulk cargo transportation market is a market close to a perfectly competitive structure. Because a single ship owner or a single cargo owner has no ability to control and affect market freight rates, he can only passively accept it. This brings great uncertainty to dry bulk cargo operators. If you are not careful, you will fall into risk.
Since dry bulk cargoes are mostly iron ore, coal, grain, etc., compared with air transport and container transportation, although the value of the goods themselves is relatively low, they are greatly affected by freight rate fluctuations, which further highlights the importance of freight rate fluctuation risk control.
How will bulk freight rates go in the future? Pei Hongbin believes that the probability of overseas supply chains being repaired in 2021 is high, and structural contradictions in import and export are expected to gradually improve. At the same time, the domestic carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies, as well as the domestic big cycle policies, have far-reaching impacts on the global trade pattern and the commodity industry.
According to Pei Hongbin's judgment, it can be basically confirmed that bulk freight rates will still be in violent fluctuations in the future, which naturally hides many risks.
In response to the possible surge and plummeting freight rates in the shipping market, Yan Weilan, deputy director of the Singapore Exchange, suggested that logistics supply chain companies can try to use forward freight agreements to hedge, effectively avoid market risks, and "make ship owners, leasers, cargo owners and other traders from being affected by the instability of the shipping market."
