Last night (October 13), the U.S. Department of Labor released the US CPI data for September, up 8.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous value of 8.3%, but higher than the market's expectations of 8.1%; it rose 0.4% month-on-month, significantly higher than the 0.1% level in August, and twice the previous market expectations.
After excluding energy and food, the core CPI in the United States recorded a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in September, a record high since August 1982. The core CPI also rose by on a month-on-month basis, maintaining a high for two consecutive months. According to the sub-item of
, housing and food both "contributed" to a large increase, while although the energy item maintained a decline, the decline also slowed down significantly. You should know that after OPEC+ announced production cuts, international oil prices soared for a while, and perhaps the decline in energy projects will no longer exist next month.
In general, there is still potential for US inflation... After the data released, US stock fell sharply before the market, international gold prices fell, while US dollar index and US bond yields rose rapidly. However, after opened , the US stock market rose rapidly due to the negative negative news of "boot landing". As of October 13, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed up more than 2%.
The US CPI in September did not hit the US stock market hard, but collapsed. After the data of
CPI was released, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar fell to 147.67 yen for 1 US dollar, the lowest level since in August 1990. Just in September, the Bank of Japan also intervened in the yen for the first time in 20 years, spending $20 billion.
After the low point, the yen exchange rate rebounded in the fluctuation, and the market was guessing whether the Bank of Japan took action to stabilize the exchange rate . However, as of press time, the yen exchange rate is still depreciating rapidly.
After the release of US CPI data, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko reiterated his commitment to pursuing loose monetary policy at a joint press conference in Washington. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi also said that the authorities will take appropriate actions to prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations. However, the Japanese Ministry of Finance declined to comment on whether Japan interferes in the market again.
my country's September CPI data was also released today (October 14), with CPI rising 2.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. But it is lower than the average expectations of 3% for market institutions.
Look at the sub-item data. The price increase in food prices, especially the "second senior brother", is the main support for the upward trend of CPI. Food prices rose 8.8%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 1.56 percentage points. Among them, pork prices rose by 36.0%, an increase of 13.6 percentage points from the previous month.
National Development and Reform Commission stated that the current price of live pigs is in the excessive increase range. The recent sharp rise in pig prices is important because some farmers have irrational excessive selling and secondary fattening to compete for the future market, which has reduced market supply. Currently, the domestic inventory of breeding sows, newborn piglets and fattening pigs has increased for many consecutive months, and there is no shortage of pigs in general.
, while the core CPI, which deducts food and energy prices, only rose by 0.6% year-on-year, setting a new low since April 2021, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Rents fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the downward trend of services and durable consumer goods on a month-on-month basis, resulting in a weak core CPI, which also reflects that the current insufficient domestic demand is still a major issue in the economy.
Let’s look at the September PPI, which represents the upstream inflation level, rose 0.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations; a decrease of 0.1% month-on-month, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.
PPI continued to decline month-on-month. On the one hand, it was due to the downward fluctuation in the international commodity price fluctuations, and in addition, our domestic coal and other industries have achieved results in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices; on the other hand, it is also affected by factors such as weak market demand.
9 PPI-CPI scissor gap widened to -1.9%, hitting a new low since 2021. The PPI-CPI scissors difference in August was -0.2%, the first time it turned negative since 2021.
We have talked about before. CPI represents price, PPI represents product ex-factory price, one represents downstream and the other represents upstream. Since 2021, the price of products with ex-factory prices has always been greater than that of consumers. At the end of last year, the gap between the two reached 12%, and the profits were all made by commodities such as raw materials and energy. If PPI-CPI is negative, it proves that the profit margin of upstream factories has expanded and enterprises are also motivated to expand production.
Based on our September social financing data, it means that in September, enterprises added 1917.3 billion yuan in new loans, an increase of 937 billion yuan year-on-year. Only when they can make money would they want to invest and expand production.
Written by Wang Yahan
Editor Wang Yahan
Procedure Liu Shule
