The downward space for the first mortgage interest rate in some cities has been further opened.
Central Bank and Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on the evening of September 29 that for cities where the sales prices of newly built commercial housing have declined month-on-month and year-on-year in June-August 2022, can independently decide to maintain, lower or cancel the interest rate lower limit of commercial personal housing loans for local first-home housing before the end of 2022.
3 First home loan interest rates in multiple cities may hit a record low
Beike Research Institute data shows that in September 2022, the mainstream first home loan interest rates in 103 key cities were 4.15%, which was only 0.05 percentage points higher than the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, of which 86 cities have touched the lower limit of 4.10%.
Industry insiders believe that The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission relax the lower limit on the first home loan interest rate, and the interest rate of the first home loan in many cities will hit a record low.
According to statistics from the E-House Research Institute, according to the housing price index data of 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at least 23 cities meet the requirements of the central bank's new policy, of which 8 second-tier cities are Harbin, Lanzhou, Wuhan, Dalian, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Kunming and Guiyang; there are 15 third-tier cities, namely Quanzhou , Wenzhou respectively, namely Quanzhou , Wenzhou respectively; 5. Luzhou , Yueyang , Yichang , Beihai , Dali, Qinhuangdao , Zhanjiang , Baotou , Anqing , Jining , Changde , Xiangyang and Guilin.
"From a national perspective, it is expected that most third- and fourth-tier cities will meet the above conditions." said Yang Fan, an analyst at Zhejiang Securities.
"It is expected that cities that meet the conditions will be in place in one step and lower the interest rate of first-home mortgages to the lowest level." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Beike Research Institute, told reporters that the interest rate of first-home mortgages in cities that meet the conditions is basically implemented at the 4.1% lower limit. once again lowers the interest rate of first-home mortgages this time, which may be reduced to about 3.6%-3.7% similar to the operating loan interest rate.
"Although this policy is still relaxed in stages by various places through the city-based policy implementation, the lower limit of mortgage interest rates has been lowered overall, and the intensity of stimulating demand is stronger than other policies this year. At present, most cities in my country mainly deal with new houses, while the purchase of first-home new citizens in some second-tier cities is still the main force in purchasing new homes. Reducing the interest rate of first-home mortgages has significantly higher strength in increasing demand than other policies." Yang Fan said.
Can the real estate market usher in "Silver October"?
On September 30, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on the policy of supporting residents to exchange housing on personal income tax policies. From October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, taxpayers who sell their own houses and repurchase their houses in the market within one year after the sale of the current house will be given tax refund preferential treatment for personal income tax paid for the sale of their existing houses.
Among them, if the amount of newly purchased housing is greater than or equal to the amount of the current housing transfer, all personal income tax paid shall be refunded; if the amount of newly purchased housing is less than the amount of the current housing transfer, the personal income tax paid for the sale of the current housing shall be refunded in proportion to the amount of the newly purchased housing to the amount of the current housing transfer.
According to the central bank's website, The People's Bank of China decided that starting from October 1, 2022, will lower the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan by 0.15 percentage points, and the interest rates below 5 years (including 5 years) and above 5 years are adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. The interest rate policy for the second personal housing provident fund loan remains unchanged, that is, the interest rates for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years shall not be less than 3.025% and 3.575% respectively.
In September this year, the real estate market was still declining inertia, and the "Golden September" of the real estate market did not arrive as expected.
gRery data shows that the estimated transaction area in 27 key cities in September was about 14.13 million square meters, the same month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 25%. Among them, the total transaction volume of second- and third-tier cities was only 11 million square meters, a decrease of 3% month-on-month and a decrease of 32% year-on-year.
After the central bank took action to lower the interest rate of first-home mortgages in many cities, can the real estate market usher in a "Silver October"?
Many experts believe that Overall, the reduction in mortgage interest rates is expected to promote demand for home purchases and market popularity will increase, but new home sales are still in the bottoming stage, and the pressure to sell stocks is still very high, and the "Silver October" may be insufficient.
"The current real estate market expectations are generally weak, and home buyers are still waiting and watching. The new central bank's policy is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment in October, but the year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area across the country may be difficult to change." Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Business Department of the China Index Academy, told reporters.
Guojin Securities analyst Du Haomin believes that the 23 cities that meet the central bank's reduction of first-home mortgage interest rates are currently weak, and there are different degrees of relaxation policies introduced during March and September this year, but the effect is not obvious. only lowered the interest rate limit for the first home loan, which is not enough to reverse the sluggish sales in such cities. It is expected that a series of policy combinations will support the bottom-up real estate market in the future, such as reducing transaction taxes and fees, further loosening of the recognition of houses and loans.
Xu Xiaole said that considering the sluggish market expectations, in order to play a role in reducing interest rates, it is necessary to expand financing support for improved housing purchase demand. not only needs to reduce the loan interest rates of "sell one, buy one" and "sell the old and buy the new". This is a necessary measure that conforms to the actual housing consumption in second- and third-tier cities. In the future, it is not ruled out that the interest rate of the second-home housing loan of will be further relaxed.
Original title: The central bank decided to lower the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan
Original title: Ministry of Finance: For residents who sell their own housing and buy houses within one year, tax refunds are given to residents who have paid personal income tax and have paid personal income tax
Original title: The interest rate of the first mortgage loan in many cities is expected to hit a record low. Will the "Silver October" in the real estate market come?
Articles are summarized from: Cailianshe, Ministry of Finance website, Beijing News
