Today is the first working day of 2019. At the beginning of the new year, various brokerages have also prepared some "red envelopes" for investors. A large number of 2019 gold stocks and combinations have been released. Some are monthly, and some are annual gold stocks. Fund Jun selected 10 brokerages to see which industries and companies are optimistic about this year.
Recommended by: Everbright Securities
Recommended combination: Huaneng International, Huaxin Cement, China Materials International, Vanke A, Haodangjia, Yunnan Baiyao, Asia Xia Automobile, AVIC Aircraft, New Beiyang, Gaoxinxing.
Everbright Securities believes that in 2019, the fourth stage of "weak data and loose policies" was established, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "it is crucial to do a good job in economic work" in 2019, which means that the fourth phase of "weak data and loose policies" in the "policy-economic" cycle is officially established. In the fourth stage, although the problem of valuation killing caused by weak data still exists, there are also valuation repairs caused by loose policies. In terms of general trend judgment, there is no need to be as pessimistic as in the third stage of "weak data and tight policies" in 2018.
According to the idea of finding a certain start, it is recommended to make January configuration from three aspects: First, focus on sectors with higher prosperity such as infrastructure, communications, agriculture, and military industry; second, focus on consumer goods sectors such as food and beverages, traditional Chinese medicine, and third, benefit from banks and real estate that benefit from loose policies.
Recommended by: Shenwan Hongyuan Securities
Recommended portfolio: New Beiyang, CITIC Securities , Guotou Electric Power, CICC Gold, Zhongzhi Shares, WuXi AppTec, Supor, Youzu Network, Vanke A, Color Life.
Shenwan Hongyuan believes that A shares currently coexist with risks and opportunities, and it needs to be laid out slowly. On the one hand, there are two problems at this stage of A-shares. One is that under the background of the decline in economic fundamentals, the prosperity sector is relatively scarce, and there is an "asset shortage" within A-shares; the other is that the positions of public funds are not low, and there is limited room for net increase in positions, so the index is difficult to rebound rapidly in the short term. On the other hand, there are potential opportunities. Generally speaking, the downward risks of the index are gradually weakening at this stage, and the upward space is gradually opening up. We should implement the strategy of "structural is king" and waiting for policy catalysis. In terms of configuration, it believes that the economic directions such as 5G, game film and television, new energy vehicles, construction decoration, securities companies, gold, livestock and poultry breeding and thermal power that are constantly verified by the "industry policy bottom" are still worthy of holding. In the medium term, consumer leaders will have a place in the spring market.
Recommended by: CICC Securities
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CICC CC 's configuration theme is "Balanced configuration, highlight growth". They believe that the main line of advanced manufacturing represented by 5G, the regional line represented by the Yangtze River Delta, and the main line of reform and opening up represented by the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the China Railway Corporation are the three main lines of the capital market in 2019. It is recommended to make balanced allocations based on the growth avoidance cycle to avoid market adjustment risks. In January, the judgment of volatile risks is maintained. The recommended order of
is: growth must be consumer finance real estate cycle.
Recommended by: Anxin Securities
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Anxin Strategy Team has a positive and optimistic view of the A-share market in the future stage. They believe that liquidity expectations will tend to improve in the future stage and risk appetite will further increase. Investors are advised to pay more attention to strategic emerging industries and growth stocks in the new year, and are strategically optimistic about the GEM index in the medium term. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to focus on electronics, communications, media, environmental protection, computers, military industry, medicine, etc. The theme focuses on semiconductors, big data, 5G, intelligent manufacturing, artificial intelligence, state-owned enterprise reform, etc.
Recommended by: Tianfeng Securities
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Tianfeng Securities believes that in 2019, A-shares are in the secondary bottoming and central oscillation recovery stage from the policy bottom to the market bottom.The core contradiction is the improvement of domestic economic fundamentals and long-term valuation. The main risk is the downward trend of corporate profits (economic downturn, goodwill impairment, social security fee change), and the market still has the risk of a second bottoming out; the fundamentals of A-shares are similar to those in 2013, in the 3/4 recession quadrant and 1/4 recovery quadrant of investment clock ; the risk-return ratio level of A-shares measured by dividend/debt-interest ratio has already been in the historical extreme range, and the market always turns around in pessimism and despair. As long as there are cracks, it is the place where the light comes in.
Recommended by: Huatai Securities
Recommended portfolio: Guangxun Technology, Inner Mongolia Huadian, Sujiaoke, Kuncai Technology, Yuanlong Yatto, Shanghai Bank , Dofluoro, McGmitt, Shiyuan Shares, CITIC Securities
Huatai Securities believes that although the valuation of A-shares in January is still suppressed, the sharp decline in the market is a low-probability event, and a neutral judgment on the market is. The three internal factors affecting A-shares at this stage are the loose space of monetary policy, the promotion and actual effect of credit transmission reform, and the policy bottom built by equity pledge risks; the three external factors are the suppression of risk preferences and profit expectations by Sino-US relations, the direct linkage effect of US stock fluctuations, and the space restrictions on monetary policy by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to communications, securities companies, and construction.
Recommended by: Changjiang Securities
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Changjiang Securities believes that in 2019, the overall performance expectations of A-shares declined, and performance performance in different styles cannot get rid of "gravity". In terms of industry allocation, Changjiang Securities believes that in 2019, demand will be under pressure and supply may loosen, and PPI is expected to decline. Along this logic, manufacturing and consumption in major sectors are worth paying attention to. Compared with 2018 under the two-way squeeze of cost demand, it is necessary to look for manufacturing industries with stable gross profit margins and benefit from cost dividends in 2019. It is recommended to focus on the power grid, thermal power, machinery and home appliance industries. On the other hand, the PPI decline caused by historical decline in demand, during which the consumer sector may have better relative returns due to its stable relative performance.
The sector effect may not be prominent in 2019. In addition to the main line of "PPI's direction", you can also pay attention to: 1. Non-bank finance (brokership and diversified finance) and real estate under the policy open source drainage; 2. The new energy vehicle industry supported by the "toC end" policy; 3. The "new railway, highway and foundation" in the economy is stabilized, and pay attention to new energy and 5G.
Recommended by: Great Wall Securities
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Great Wall Securities believes that looking forward to January, there is still uncertainty as to whether overseas markets can stabilize, and expectations of weak domestic fundamentals continue to exist, especially the performance forecasts of small and medium-sized entrepreneurial enterprises are about to be released intensively, and the risk of goodwill impairment may gradually be reflected. It is expected that the market risk preference will still be suppressed, but the layout at the beginning of the year, the low valuation level and policy bottoming out have a certain support for the market. The market trading around the Spring Festival is relatively light, maintaining the judgment of weak fluctuations in A-shares.
At the industry allocation level, it is recommended to have relatively balanced allocation, pay attention to certainty at the performance level, and pay attention to valuation repair opportunities in industries related to stable growth and counter-cyclical related fields, including industries such as finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electricity, and chemicals. Among them, the turning point of the securities industry is expected to gradually emerge, and leading securities companies enjoy valuation premium; banks have significant valuation advantages and are expected to usher in a stable pattern of volume increase and price increase; the No. 1 document for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry is issued, and the turning point of the pig cycle is approaching; the cost sensitivity of the power industry is higher than the power sensitivity, and the countercyclical characteristics and dividend advantages are significant; the supply and demand pattern of some chemical sub-industry industries is expected to improve.
In addition, some targets are also the top ten gold stocks of the year by Great Wall Securities Research Institute.
Recommended by: Dongxing Securities
Recommended portfolio: China Nuclear Power, Hanlan Environment, China Railway Construction, Jack Shares, Juewei Food, Qilianshan, Binjiang Group , Yisheng Shares, Zhongqi Shares, Zhejiang Longsheng.
Dongxing Securities believes that economic growth will be set next year and short-term market contradictions will remain. The Central Economic Work Conference refuted the many uncertainties in the economy next year, strengthened the expectations of a bottom-down economy, and set the tone for next year's economic growth. However, the short-term contradiction between the market on valuation, debt and real estate still exists. Industry suggests that the allocation of real estate, banks and infrastructure will still be maintained.For absolute returns and medium- and long-term investors, only from the perspective of equity assets, it is believed that the current valuation level of A-shares already has allocation value. However, low valuation is often impossible to have sufficient investment value. If it does not fall, it does not mean you can buy it.
Looking ahead to the future market, Dongxing Securities believes that the bottom line of the economy is highly likely, the central bank's liberalization of space and the introduction of a series of stimulus policies constitute a more important basis for our optimism about equity assets. It is recommended to actively increase allocations for high-quality stocks from the bottom up perspective.
Recommended by: Founder Securities (rights protection)
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Founder Securities' gold stock portfolio involves computer, media, communications, military industry, commerce and other industries. The stocks listed in the portfolio are selected from the best recommendations of the chief analyst of each industry this month.
This article is from China Fund News
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