China News Network
On October 14, National Bureau of Statistics will announce the national consumer price index (CPI) in September. Prices of pork, vegetables, eggs and other foods rose. Many institutions expect that the year-on-year increase in CPI in September may expand.
9 CPI year-on-year growth may expand
Affected by the decline in food prices and other factors, in August, CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. What will the CPI increase in September?
CPI up and down trend chart. Figure from National Bureau of Statistics
According to monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in September, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 30.82 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 5.9% and a year-on-year increase of 54.6%; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.64 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 13% and a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; the average wholesale price of eggs was 11.64 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 9.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.
"Mid-Autumn Festival combined with the decline in temperature has further increased the demand for related foods, the absolute price of pork hit a new high this year, and the price of eggs continues to rise month-on-month." Industrial Securities said that although the cooling in late September improved the transportation of vegetables and vegetable prices fell certainly, vegetable prices still recorded a large increase in month-on-month in September. Judging from the comprehensive base, CPI is expected to rise by 2.8% year-on-year in September.
HuaChuang Securities analyst Zhang Yu believes that overall, food prices will continue to put up pressure on CPI. But on the other hand, the macro situation continues to suppress the upward slope of core inflation, while the adjustment of international oil prices has led to a slight decline in domestic refined oil prices. It is expected that CPI will rise by 0.4% month-on-month in September and up to about 2.9% year-on-year.
According to Tonghuashun iFinD statistics, the average forecast of 19 institutions for the year-on-year increase in CPI in September is 2.99%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in September will expand, and may hit a new high this year.
Data picture: Chongming, Shanghai, residents buy pork at the Miaozhen Market. Photo by Tian Yuhao, China News Service reporter
Pork prices do not have the basis for a sharp rise
Since this year, domestic pig prices have experienced a process of falling first and then rising, and are still in a volatile and rising trend recently.
Recently, a reporter from China News Service noticed in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing that the price of pork tip and back tip is 21.8 yuan/jin, which has been raised by two yuan in recent times, and the price of pork belly has not changed.
Will the pork price continue to rise, driving CPI upward?
"Together, pork prices may rise in the next stage, but they do not have the basis for a sharp increase. There are still good conditions for price stability." Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said recently.
Fu Linghui pointed out that from the perspective of supply, the current pig production capacity is generally at a reasonable level. With the rise of market prices, the profitability of pig breeding is currently relatively good. Most farmers expect to improve, which is conducive to the overall stability of pig supply. From a policy perspective, while the price of live pigs has risen too quickly, the government reserves frozen pork to be placed in a timely manner to guide the price of pork in a reasonable range.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, preliminary statistics were made, in September, the country and various regions put a total of about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves, and the monthly release volume reached the highest level in history, and the release price was lower than the market price, effectively ensuring the supply and smooth operation of the live pork market.
Data picture provided by Shenyang Municipal Bureau of Commerce
What is the trend of the later CPI?
According to the monitoring of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the collective markets and collection points in 500 counties across the country, the prices of pig products, poultry products, beef and mutton, soybean meal and compound feed rose in the first week of October. Among them, the average price of pork in the country was 37.80 yuan/kg, up 3.4% from the previous week and up 79.6% year-on-year; the average price of eggs in the country was 12.67 yuan/kg, up 0.6% from the previous week and up 18.0% year-on-year.
Some food prices are rising, what is the next trend of CPI?
Galaxy Securities analyst Xu Dongshi believes that considering the rebound in pork and vegetable prices in the second half of the year, it is expected that the year-on-year CPI increase in the fourth quarter may reach about 2.4%, and the annual CPI is expected to be around 2.2%.
"In the next year dimension, core inflation is expected to remain low.Although under the influence of cardinality effect , CPI may hit 3% year-on-year in individual months, there is no inflation pressure overall. "Zhang Yu said.
