At the beginning of this year, 115 yen can be exchanged for 1 US dollar, but it currently requires more than 130 yen to exchange for 1 US dollar. The depreciation of the yen is so huge that some people believe that the lack of exchange rate will cause Japan's GDP to be surpassed by South Korea, and the economic structure of East Asia has undergone a major change.
Nansheng, does not agree with this view. We cannot just see the yen depreciating, but ignore that the Korean won is also depreciating . Taking the first half of this year as an example, the average exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar was 123.04, that is, the average 123.04 yen was needed to convert 1 US dollar, depreciating by about 12.4%.
The average exchange rate between the won and the US dollar in the first half of this year was around 1230.15, and the depreciation was around 9.1%. From a currency perspective, the exchange rate can only help South Korea's per capita GDP increase by about 3.3 percentage points. However, Japan's per capita GDP in 2021 is more than ten percentage points higher than South Korea.
Nansheng noticed that starting from the end of July, the exchange rate trend between the yen and the US dollar has shown a "slight rebound". In addition, the market's expectations for the US economy to continue to decline in the second half of the year are getting stronger, and the Japanese yen exchange rate is not expected to continue to depreciate significantly.
0 Although the Korean won exchange rate has rebounded slightly since July, the rebound strength is not as strong as the yen. The exchange rate gap between the Japanese yen and the Korean won is also narrowing. In other words, exchange rate changes will not allow South Korea's per capita GDP to catch up with Japan this year.
Change the algorithm, South Korea's per capita GDP has exceeded Japan's
uses the average exchange rate algorithm of the Japanese yen, South Korean won and the US dollar, and Japan's per capita GDP is still above South Korea. It has an advantage of more than 13% in 2021 and is expected to still have an advantage of about 10% in 2021. According to the current development trend, South Korea will still take several years to catch up.
But if we change the algorithm, that is, adopt a purchasing power parity system, then South Korea's per capita GDP will exceed that of Japan. Taking the 2021 data released by World Bank as an example, under the purchasing power parity system, Japan's economy is close to US$5.397 trillion, ranking fourth.
Based on purchasing power, my country's economic scale in 2021 exceeded US$27.3 trillion, ranking first among countries around the world. The United States ranks second in the world with a record of nearly 23 trillion US dollars; India ranks third in the world, with GDP calculated based on purchasing power exceeding $10 trillion.
South Korea's economic scale will become US$2.428 trillion under the purchasing power calculation standard. According to this calculation method, South Korea's per capita GDP was about US$46,700 in 2021, and Japan's per capita GDP was about US$42,900, which is about US$3,800 lower than South Korea, and the gap is close to 9%.
Nansheng also noticed that if the purchasing power data released by the World Bank were adopted, South Korea's per capita GDP actually surpassed Japan in 2018, becoming the leader among the three largest economies in East Asia. Japan, which has been stagnant, is no longer the most beautiful boy in East Asia.
According to purchasing power, what is my country's per capita GDP?
China, Japan and South Korea are the three largest economies in East Asia. my country's economic scale has an advantage, and the per capita GDP of Japan and South Korea is higher. Under the purchasing power system, South Korea's per capita GDP reached US$46,700 in 2021, while Japan's per capita GDP was approximately US$42,900.
What level will our per capita GDP rise to by using purchasing power calculation standards? We continue to use the World Bank data, calculate the total GDP of more than US$27.3 trillion and the population of 1.4126 billion, and concluded that my country's per capita GDP will exceed US$19,300.
Whether calculated by exchange rate or purchasing power parity system, my country's per capita GDP just exceeded the world average in 2021, and still belongs to the developing country of , and there is still a big gap with the per capita GDP of Japan and South Korea. This article is compiled and written by Nan Sheng. Please do not reprint or plagiarize without authorization!
