Reporter Chu Lijun
In the early morning of October 13, Beijing time, the minutes of the Federal Reserve September Monetary Policy meeting were released. The minutes showed that Fed officials believed it was necessary to take action to maintain restrictive policies. Fed officials agreed to the recent adoption of restrictive interest rates, and may continue to raise interest rates in November and December.
In this regard, Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Sichuan Finance Securities, who was interviewed by a reporter from Securities Daily, said that in the minutes, Federal Reserve officials reiterated their determination to control inflation within a reasonable range, saying that although US inflation has improved, the range is limited, and it is still a long way from the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target, so further interest rate hikes are necessary. Judging from the channels for interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve has a high probability of continuing to raise interest rates of 75BP in November and 50BP in December. But it should be noted that although the latest release of in the United States in September, although PPI fell slightly, its growth rate still exceeded expectations. It can be seen that the core inflation in the United States is strong. If the US inflation value does not fall back to a reasonable range as Fed expects, it may prompt the Fed to continue to maintain its tightening stance. Liu Cunxin, assistant manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund under
Pai Pai.com, said in an interview with Securities Daily that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting demonstrated its determination to curb continued high inflation and its concerns about high inflation. Therefore, it is expected that there will be room for interest rate hikes this year, of which the probability of 75 basis points hikes in November is very high.
Reagan Fund general manager Li Jinlong said that the Fed is trying to curb high inflation, and there will be more interest rate hike policies in the future, interest rates will continue to rise, interest rates will stay at high levels for a long time, and the expectation of a US recession will continue to put pressure on the US stock market. In general, the US economy is facing the risk of stagflation or even recession. The stage of large and intensive interest rate hikes is over, and the pace of subsequent interest rate hikes may slow down.
Regarding when the Fed will stop hike interest rates, CITIC Securities pointed out in its research report that considering that the employment market may deteriorate in the first quarter of next year, the US inflation stickiness this year is high, and controlling inflation may make some progress next year, and maintaining the previous judgment that the Fed may stop hike interest rates in the first quarter of next year. Taking into account the Fed's forward guidance rules, Taylor's rules and the actual interest rate level, the previous end point of interest rate hikes is maintained at about 5%, and the probability of subsequent interest rate hikes is high this year. US bond interest rate has not yet peaked, but its future fluctuations are expected to be large. We need to be wary of the risk that US bond interest rates will continue to operate above 4% for a period of time.
On Wednesday, the three major indexes of U.S. stocks closed down collectively, Dow Jones Index fell 0.1% to 29,210.85 points; S&P 500 Index fell 0.33% to 3577.03 points; Nasdaq Index fell 0.09% to 10,417.1 points. It is worth noting that the Nasdaq Index and the S&P 500 Index have fallen for six consecutive trading days, and both indexes have hit new lows in the past two years.
Chen Li believes that for the US stock market, after the non-farm employment data in September was better than expected, the market already predicted that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of raising interest rates by 75BP in November. Therefore, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting released this time are basically in line with market expectations and have not caused much panic. Looking at the future market, the tightening of US liquidity and the pressure of core inflation remained, and the valuation of US stocks was disturbed. With the expectation that the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates and the US economy fell into recession, the downward pressure on the US stock market was still relatively high.
The Federal Reserve's rate hike expectation will also have a certain impact on the global capital market. "From the recent announcement of relevant indicators such as the US PPI, the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates twice this year, which means that the pressure of global balance sheet reduction still exists, and the contraction effect on the global capital market is still expanding. This may also be one of the reasons why major stock markets such as Hong Kong stock and Europe still perform poorly." Qin Hong, a senior analyst at Jinbailin Consulting, told the Securities Daily reporter.
Liu Cunxin believes that for A shares , Feder interest rate hike will push US Treasury yields upward, which may trigger foreign capital outflows from A-shares. The Fed's interest rate hike is not conducive to the strengthening of A-shares and will increase the volatility and uncertainty of A-share market , especially growth stocks will be under obvious pressure.
picture | Site Cool Heluo Baotu.com
production | Zhou Wenrui
review | Zhao Ziqiang
editing | Shangguan Monroe
final review | Ma Fangye
