Institutional views and thoughts
Compared with previous years, many investors (small) have a rather plain attitude towards the post-holiday market this year, and the current mainstream attitude is still waiting and watching. Among them, investors with short positions and light positions still choose to continue to wait and see, but they have heavy positions (being trapped) and are relatively optimistic. The main reason for
"waiting and watching" is that the current "complex internal and external environment" still cannot see the turning point, and the important policies have not been implemented yet and the attitudes of the senior management have not yet been seen (policy).
In addition, many investors said they were not optimistic about the upcoming third quarter report.
, but they also said that before the holiday, both A shares , both stock index and trading volume, continued to sluggish and hit a new low. This shows that there have been expectations and responses to potential risk events such as the United States' non-agricultural and Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In addition to the background of heavy meetings, it is unrealistic to continue to fall sharply in the short term.
- External contradictions in A-shares
, Fed rate hike
At present, the market is very concerned about the Fed rate hike. Some investors said that they did not expect that US inflation was so "sticky". This time, "I despised the Fed's interest rate hike and suffered a lot of losses. Afterwards, 10 years ago, US bond was indeed the anchor of the global asset pricing ."
This represents the view of a considerable number of investors.
Therefore, there is currently a view that when the Fed's interest rate hike marginally slows down, A-shares may rebound. When will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates , A-shares may usher in a reversal.
) What impact does the Federal Reserve raise interest rates on A-shares?
Oriental Securities believes that The Federal Reserve raises interest rates and the rise in US Treasury bond interest rates will cause pressure on RMB exchange rate .
The RMB has weakened rapidly before the festival. The pressure on depreciation is mainly due to the continued strengthening of the US dollar index .
. Currently, the spread of from the 10-year treasury bonds in China and the United States is about 5-100 basis points. As the Federal Reserve further raises interest rates in the future, the spread is likely to expand further, and the pressure on RMB depreciation remains. This has brought two effects. One is to limit the space for the domestic risk-free interest rate to decline, and the other weakening expectations lead to a decrease in risk preference and an increase in the risk premium rate;
is also superimposed on the negative impact of overseas economic recession risks on the domestic economy. Before the risk of overseas recession is fully priced, it is expected that the A-share market will still be a weak pattern in the future.
CITIC stated that the rise in US Treasury bond interest rates will lead to the restriction of space in monetary policy, and it is necessary to rely on the fiscal and loose credit policy to promote the recovery of economic fundamentals to support the exchange rate .
The continued differentiation of monetary policies between China and the United States has led to an intensification of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, which has a certain inhibition on the decline in domestic bond market interest rates. The domestic bond market may fluctuate and run weakly in the future.
Looking back at history, the Federal Reserve's tightening pushes the rise in US Treasury bond interest rates has a certain negative impact on the valuation of growth stocks. It is expected that domestic growth stocks may still be under pressure in the fourth quarter of this year.
2) When will the marginal slow down?
CITIC said that the Fed's pace of tightening will slow down this year and need to wait at least until after the November midterm elections.
Market forecast time, the Fed interest rate arrears meeting from November 1 to 2, and the US midterm elections on November 8. After the midterm elections, the votes are not the main contradiction and interest rate hikes are slowing down.
3) When will the interest rate hike stop?
Guosheng said that the current market expects that the probability of adding 75bp in November is close to 100%, and the probability of adding 50bp in December will be higher. After adding 25bp in February next year, interest rate hikes will be stopped, and interest rate cuts will begin as early as the end of next year.
CITIC said that is expected to show a desirable decline rate in , because it is expected that U.S. inflation will be more difficult to see a desirable decline in the year, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 125bps is relatively high (November 75BP + December 50BP), and the probability of the Federal Reserve stopping interest rate hikes in the first quarter of next year is relatively high. Considering Taylor's rules and the actual interest rate level, the end point of interest rate hikes may be around 5%.
4) Summary of the
market has opinions. Previously, there were always opinions in the market that A-shares have their own independent trend, so they do not attach much importance to the Fed's interest rate hike.
But at present everyone is aware of the impact of the Fed rate hike.
Therefore, the A-share market is now very full of expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike. Although it has an impact in the medium term, investors have already made "advance volume".
Northeast Securities Fu Peng’s view: The Federal Reserve is a trader, more about trading and managing market expectations. When undervalued, it will pull your expectations back, but there is one way to do it is that the body’s movements should be smaller than the market’s expectations.
Finally, everyone found that there is actually no need to estimate the interest rate level of 5% or even higher. In the end, everyone's estimated level is, for example, 4.25%.
But the Fed hopes that you will accept more than 4.25%, giving you an extremely high expectation. After the expectation is full, a recession will naturally occur, which will slow down the total demand curve faster.
Once the total demand curve slows down faster, since the Federal Reserve's goal has been achieved, it will actually not need to use such a high interest rate level in the future. This is the cycle of standard expectation management of . So this round of judgment is that in the past two months, we will maintain expectations very much, and the focus of our real focus is who will recession under such a full high temperature expectation. If 1 to 2 mainstream economies here have recessions, then for the United States, it can maintain the risk of a shallow recession, and slow down the global total demand curve quickly enough, and at the same time, its own interest rate level will not be as high as it can be increased.
- Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies
The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is becoming more and more intense. Before the festival, the Nordic Pipeline was bombed, and after the festival, the Crimea Bridge was bombed. How is the fight at the moment? It is currently all self-media news, and the real situation is unknown.
But look at the blogger on B station, reviewing Russia's previous war performance.
Although Russia is called a fighting nation, the Russians do not fight like the Germans. Russia rarely wins tactical battles in wars, but Russia's battle is reflected in national resilience.
For example, from Napoleon to the German Nazis, Russia finally dragged down its enemies with national resilience.
Another thing is that Russians generally divide into three sections when fighting wars, taking the Soviet-Finn War from 1939 to 1940 as an example.
The first paragraph underestimates the enemy and advances rashly, and the second paragraph is seriously frustrated. The third paragraph is to adjust and redeploy.
Finland began to use 20,000 or 30,000 troops to eat more than 200,000 Soviet troops, but in the end, Finland still failed and was finally ceded 1/10 of the territory.
corresponds to A-share
At present, what everyone is more worried about is that as winter approaches, after Russia re-adjusts and deploys, will the intensity of the war increase, and will use tactical nuclear weapon , which is still very uncertain. What the market is most worried about is uncertainty.
In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a greater impact on Europe. If the recession intensifies in Europe, it will have a very large short-term impact on domestic exports.
’s impact on Europe
At present, it is generally believed that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, EU (Germany) pays for it.
With the bombing of the Nord Stream, Germany completely lost Russia's cheap energy, and Germany (Europe) industry is bound to be damaged.
Everbright price trend outlook for European natural gas stated that if Europe can implement a reduction target of 15%, there is a high probability that Europe will not experience gas shortage this winter.
But without Russian natural gas, it takes a process to find other gas sources, and European LNG investment also requires a process.
Therefore, it is expected that European gas prices may remain at high levels in the next year, and it is expected that European gas prices will return to the level before last year within 3-5 years.
Great Wall Securities believes that if energy crisis and high inflation continue for a longer period of time, European industrial enterprises may gradually evolve from temporary adjustments to structural damage, causes irreversible " de-industrialization " risks, and the decline in European manufacturing may be a long-term trend.
European manufacturing companies may be transferring their businesses outward, and in addition to the United States, China is also one of the main destinations.
Because, China has three major advantages to solve the difficulties faced by European companies.
First, China's industrial electricity prices are relatively low worldwide. Second, China has a complete range of manufacturing industries, a relatively stable supply chain, and a strong ability to resist risks. Third, China is the second largest consumer market in the world, with vast room for growth.
- Internal contradictions in A-shares
Most of them believe that real estate and prevention and control are the main internal problems facing A-shares at present.
There is currently a view that real estate is the "eye of the formation" of China's economy now.
Because stabilizing real estate can not only stabilize the economy (at least no longer drag down the economy), but also real estate can also pass on credit and alleviate the current liquidity accumulation phenomenon.
For the exchange rate, the depreciation of the RMB in the short term is more due to the strong US dollar and the monetary policies of China and the United States are not synchronized. But from the perspective of medium- and long-term reasons, the key is to look at the fundamental expectations of China's economy itself, and behind it is also epidemic prevention and real estate.
Guohai Securities also stated that in the fourth quarter of , while the infrastructure growth rate has maintained a high level, export chain and real estate chain are key variables in economic indicators.
Among them, the speed of export downward determines our expectation space for consumption and real estate repair; . With the policy increase again, real estate performance determines our expectations for overall economic stabilization.
) and exports have now reached a "turning point".
8 export volume growth rate quickly fell from the previous level of more than 15% to 7.1%. In 9, CICC expected exports to increase by 4.6% year-on-year and imports to increase by 2.2% year-on-year (0.3% in August).
, and the recently announced new export order PMI in September was 47%, and the previous value was 48.1%. The weakening of exports has been continuously verified.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, as the Federal Reserve's radical interest rate hikes suppress consumption and investment and the impact of the European energy crisis accelerates the economic recession, the trend of decline in foreign demand has been confirmed.
In other words, in the context of infrastructure maintaining a high state, exports are downward, and consumption is weak, there are currently some opinions that real estate will gradually "take the lead" in the future.
2) Differences on real estate
, but there are also many differences on real estate. The market has a view that the "real estate combination punch" from September 29 to 30 has limited effect on interest rates and tax refunds.
Some people believe that has a lot of room for imagination in the previous rounds of real estate cycles, which will give the market the expectation that houses can gain a significant appreciation, so it will trigger a house buying boom;
However, the policy goals since this year are mainly to stabilize the market and ensure the delivery of buildings, and have not formed significant expectations of asset appreciation, which also makes it difficult to significantly improve real estate sales, and the growth rate of social financing and RMB loans are also showing a weak upward trend.
Optimists believe that the "property market" combination punch has opened up expectations
On September 24, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that real estate financial bubble momentum has been substantially reversed , and the amount of disposal of non-performing assets in the past five years has exceeded the total disposal amount in the previous 12 years.
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission’s re-setting of real estate has shown that there is a high probability that there will be policies in the future.
If the effect of the "real estate combination punch" from September 29 to 30 is limited, next, there may be policies that are beneficial to real estate.
Personally believe that the policy cannot be underestimated in the short term. For example, the coal price has risen before. After the National Development and Reform Commission held many meetings, although it has risen for a while later, the price has indeed been reduced.
If in the future, real estate will need to support the economy, I believe that there will be many ways to do the policy.
- Summary of
The current mainstream views of securities companies, taking Guosheng as an example.
Looking back, stable growth is inseparable from real estate. Further relaxation of real estate in the fourth quarter is expected, but it is highly likely that it will still be a weak recovery.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and next year, it is expected that the downward pressure on the economy will still be greater, and stable growth cannot be separated from real estate. real estate repairs more substantial policy support: for example, lowering the down payment ratio, adjusting the standards for housing and loan recognition, moderately relaxing the purchase and sales restrictions of core first- and second-tier enterprises, etc.; on the supply side, relaxing the equity financing of real estate companies, adjusting the pre-sale fund management and three red lines, etc.
- A shares will usher in a turning point
Currently, it depends on the views of securities companies. It is generally believed that the fourth quarter is the turning point, and it is slightly specific to the time node, and it is believed that around November.
Everbright believes that the turning point in the fourth quarter
is the market that is expected to see a turning point in the fourth quarter, and consumption after the epidemic gradually subsides ( Everbright believes that after the grand event, prevention and control margins will improve ) , Exports under energy pressure (Everbright believes that if European energy prices continue to be high, domestic exports are expected to remain resilient) and gradual recovery of real estate may bring about accelerated recovery of economic fundamentals , and overseas risk factors may also gradually subside (the US midterm elections and November interest rate hikes will both end in early November) to promote the upward trend of the market.
Western Securities believes that the macro level is expected to see a turning point in global liquidity in November.
November Europe enters the full heating season, the energy crisis is approaching, and the market expects the Fed interest rate agenda meeting from November 1 to 2 to raise interest rates by 75bp. The pace of interest rate hike is expected to slow down, and global liquidity is expected to usher in a turning point; an important domestic meeting was held in late October, the US midterm election was implemented on November 8, and the G20 summit was held from November 15 to 16, and the global environment is expected to be relatively certain.
Soviet Securities believes that November to December is the time window period
December Politburo meeting in the first week of December and the third week of Central Economic Work Conference . If the relevant meeting clearly sends out signals of stable growth policy efforts, economic recovery expectations may drive the market rebound, similar to the end of April this year. market value sector has pro-cyclical attributes and valuation elasticity, and is expected to usher in a strong recovery in valuation.
- direction, or Shanghai and Shenzhen 300
Recently, securities companies are optimistic about the significant increase in the value sector. At the grassroots level, there are also opinions that the value style represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 may be dominant for a period of time in the future, while CSI 1000 and track stocks may need to take a break.
Because the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is mainly related to domestic demand. The performance of track stocks represented by CSI 1000 is mainly related to exports.
As the domestic stable growth policy (such as real estate) gradually emerges, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will gradually usher in opportunities. At the same time, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 began to adjust in February 21, and its position is relatively low.
. As exports weaken, the performance pressure of small and medium-sized stocks , which account for a high proportion of foreign demand, will further increase. and the other ones are CSI 1000, and the position is relatively high. When the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50 were adjusted, CSI 1000 has been in an independent market.
from the current market valuation level and implicit risk premium .
million A full A price-to-earnings ratio TTM is only 16.59, which is at 7.15% in the past three years. Extremely low valuations are an important basis for future market recovery.
From the perspective of implicit risk premium, both Wande All A and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have exceeded the 90% percentile level in the past eight years, and are significantly higher than the end of April this year. It is at an extremely high position in recent years. This is an excellent layout opportunity for medium- and long-term funds.
Dongwu Securities View:
From the perspective of the valuation of the main broad-based index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, which represents the market value, currently has PE (TTM,
2022/9/30, the same below) (the historical quarter of the past five years, the same below), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 30011.2 times (9%), which is significantly lower than the ChiNext Index representing small and medium-sized growth 44 times (25%) and the CSI 100027 times (14%).
The extremely low valuation of the market's value implies the market's pessimistic expectations for future economic growth.
Confidence repair is to be implemented. The specific time window is mainly concentrated in November-December, including the Politburo meeting in the first week of December and the Central Economic Work Conference in the third week. If the relevant meeting clearly sends out signals of the policy of stabilizing growth, expectations of economic recovery may drive the market rebound, similar to the end of April this year.
The market value sector also has pro-cyclical attributes and valuation elasticity, and is expected to usher in a strong valuation recovery.
Guosheng Views:
Since mid-August, the market value and small-cap growth have shown a sharp convergence in the 130 trading days of html, mainly due to several expected differences: narrow currency is over, the speed of foreign demand decline is indeed faster than imagined, and the determination of domestic demand policy is replaced by bottom-line thinking.
, while standing at the current point of time, the probability of the market style turning to switching (Q4) is still gradually increasing:
- narrow currency is being loosest in the stage (MLF price reduction but volume reduction, credit financing recovery, exchange rate depreciation pressure);
- external demand declines faster than expected: after the continued high growth from May to July, the export growth rate in August showed a significant decline;
- domestic demand, the previous drag factors are gradually eliminating: after getting rid of the impact of high temperature weather, production and electricity restrictions, coupled with the implementation of the supervision actions of the State Council, the physical volume of infrastructure is expected to accelerate in the next stage, so you can pay attention to the quality of the subsequent "Golden September and Silver October" peak season.
Station looks backward at the current point of time, several medium-term variables need to be paid attention to:
- Jackson Hole's speech emphasized the absorption of "historical lessons" and the management of "inflation expectations". In the context of the Fed's desperate anti-inflation, the upward trend of US real interest rates has been established, and it is difficult to reverse in the short term;
- The interest rate spread between China and the United States has widened again, and the strong US dollar shaped by the tightening of US dollar liquidity has led to an increase in the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, especially when the export growth rate falls back;
Third, putting aside the external environment, domestic fundamentals are in an active destocking cycle (PPI and inventory are down simultaneously), with great pressure on profits, and the necessity of stabilizing growth and strengthening policy implementation has increased significantly. In general, several internal and external variables in the medium term: the domestic economy enters active destocking, the rise in real interest rates in the United States, and the intensified pressure on RMB depreciation, all pointing to the direction of low-level value as the market's minimum resistance, and the probability of style switching in the fourth quarter is still gradually increasing.
