Iran Officially admitted that Iranian Quds Brigade head of the troops, Major General Qasim Soleimani other people, including Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi Muhandis, was killed in a U.S. drone attack near Baghdad airport. This is considered to be the most important military assassination in the Middle East in the 21st century. It is even more important than killing Osama bin Laden in 2011. So how will Iran retaliate against the United States?
The reason why bin Laden is said to be more important than bin Laden is because the latter was a lonely figure when he died, trapped in a courtyard of Pakistani , with no energy. As the mastermind of 9/11, Bin Laden's death was a victory for Washington, but it was largely a symbolic act. Soleimani is also a symbol of Iran's power in , the Middle East, , but he is not a single fight, but a leader and planner of Iran's active actions in the Middle East. He is the core figure of Iranian influence in Syria , Lebanon , Iraq and Yemen. Behind him is the entire Iranian country, so Soleimani's assassination is unparalleled in the 21st century.
After such a shocking behavior, two problems will inevitably arise. Why does Trump take action now? How will Iran retaliate next? The first question seems easier to answer, at least on the surface. The attack follows Iran-backed militia attacks the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. The attack on the embassy angered the United States; Trump directly threatened Iran on Twitter , saying that "Iran will pay a very high price for any damage to the United States or the loss of American lives. This is not a warning, but a threat." But Iran's highest leader Khamenei immediately fired back, and he said on Twitter: "You can't do anything."
This may be an excessive provocation in Trump's view. Over the past year, Iran has shot down a U.S. drone, attacked a major oil facility in Saudi Arabia, and attacked a U.S. base. All of this was not responding to. Maybe some people in Tehran are starting to feel invincible. Of course, it is more likely because Khamenei's challenge comes from Twitter. Twitter has always been considered Trump's home court, and the Iranian leader directly challenged Trump in this cyberspace, which may have ignited his anger at once.
As for the second question. Some people judged that Iraq's Shiite militia and US military launched a fight directly in Iraq. But in fact, this is very difficult. Not to mention that direct attack on the US military is equivalent to an egg hitting a stone. In addition, Iraq has always refused to become a battlefield for Iran and the United States. The outside world speculates that Iran's more realistic revenge is the target of attacking Israel (after all, Iranian officials say Soleimani's death is the result of assassination of the United States and Israel), and of course it is not ruled out that we risk taking the initiative to launch a dormant team in the United States to carry out destructive revenge.
Iran in the Greater Middle East region, including Palestinian , Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, with a total of about 200,000 militia armed groups, mainly Iraqi Shiite militia, Yemeni Houthi rebels, and of course Lebanese Hezbollah. Israel will be a target to a large extent. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrula said the group would never stand by if there was a war between Iran and the United States. Iran will not fight alone in the war.
Hezbollah will certainly attack Israel with artillery fire, missiles and rockets. Nasrula recently said that the group's arsenal has "tripled" since the 2006 war, including the ability to strike weapons from the northern Israel border to anywhere from the Eilat . Nasrula claims that Hezbollah can attack Israel whenever it is needed, and he sees the vulnerability of Israel’s population center and critical infrastructure from Netanya to the coast of Ashdud. “Israel always says to blow us back to the Stone Age,” Nasrula said. “Then let’s wait and see who will blow who will blow who will blow us into the Stone Age."
Of course, Hezbollah and Israel have started a full fight, and Hezbollah will definitely suffer heavy losses. If Iran does not want to lose Hezbollah's big brand, it may start the 910 troop group lurking and dormant overseas. It is reported that on the afternoon of July 18, 2012, a bus carrying more than 40 Israeli tourists was in the Bulgaria Eastern Port City Burgas The explosion attack on the field, killing at least 6 people and injuring more than 30 people. This is believed to be the work of the 910 Forces group. The group reported directly to Nasrula, but Iran supervised the force's operations.
This so-called 910 Force exposure comes from Koalani, a 32-year-old naturalized citizen from Lebanon, found in the United States in 2019. He is accused of being a "sleeper" lurking in the United States by the 910 Forces (sleeper), who appears to live a normal life as an ordinary person in the United States, can perform active tasks and actions for the organization at any time. Koalani has been lurking and observing and collecting information for Hezbollah in military locations in New York City and Kennedy International Airport. It is said that after Koalani was naturalized, he has long visited various New York government agencies to observe and collect information, including the FBI office in Manhattan and the Secret Service in Brooklyn.
At that time, Koalani gave 15 people, but were these all lurking agents of the 910 troops in the United States, and the United States also I dare not make a promise. In addition, the 910 unit is just an Iranian peripheral organization. Whether the real Iranian Revolutionary Guard has lurkers in the United States is even more a mystery. Soleimani is a dignified major general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. He is murdered and may have people from the Iranian intelligence department take action, or even retaliate at any cost. Then the United States will need to increase the domestic anti-terrorism level as a whole. So if Iran's revenge makes the United States very painful, will the United States assassinate higher-level Iranians or even launch a military attack? The Middle East has ushered in a new decade, and it may seem that it will be more turbulent than the previous decade.
