International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that in addition to the global financial crisis and the peak period of the epidemic, this is "the weakest growth since 2001."
IMF expects global GDP to remain at 3.2% this year, down from 6% in 2021; it is expected that global economic growth will slow to 2.7% next year, down 0.2 percentage points from its July forecast, claiming a 25% chance of falling below 2%.
IMF gave a pessimistic world economic outlook on Tuesday, and the report said: "The worst is still ahead, and for many people, 2023 will be like a recession." The report said that more than one-third of the global economy will experience negative growth for two consecutive quarters.
According to comprehensive analysis by international organizations such as IMF and World Bank and various aspects, the world economy is expected to accelerate the downward process in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year, and there are also crisis factors lurking. The IMF also released the Global Financial Stability Report on Tuesday, which pointed out that since April this year, global financial stability risks have increased, and the risk balance has tilted significantly downward.
IMF's economic outlook yesterday does not contain abnormal factors, but the current crisis factors in the international market are rare to be abundant. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict deepens, the European energy crisis is difficult to resolve, the United States and Europe are in a stable high inflation, the United States and Europe are aggressive interest rate hikes is expected to continue, the US dollar drought is forming, the world accelerates deleveraging , the US and European economies enter a stagflation cycle, the European and Japanese face the triple kill of stocks, bonds and exchanges, the international exchange rate market is disordered, and the debt defaults in emerging economies are obvious …
The current international financial market is embedded with crisis variables, which has the probability of triggering the "black swan" event , and the world is basically locked in a relatively fragile financial chain, while Fed and the ECB are still aggressively hiking interest rates. The world is accelerating the leverage of and squeezing bubbles. In this case, it is difficult to predict which link will suddenly have problems. Once a certain link collapses, it is easy to form an financial crisis . Creating a new crisis is one of the purposes of Wall Street . When the international market begins to destiny, Wall Street will inevitably add fuel to the fire, so the crisis variables are easily strengthened.
Since the subprime mortgage crisis , including the early stages of the new crown crisis, the problems in the international financial market are not as complicated as it is now. This is the result of the monetization of the new crown crisis and has created the most inflated financial bubble in history. This bubble covers various markets such as bonds, stock markets, commodities, real estate, funds, bank wealth management products, trusts, financial derivatives and digital currency . When such an international market begins to radically deleverage, the consequences are self-evident.
The current international financial market is at the critical point of a total imbalance, so the exchange rate market will be turbulent. The greed of Wall Street financial capital echoes the restlessness of international speculative capital. This is a specific manifestation of the US dollar tide's expansion of global risk exposure. The turmoil in the exchange rate market has led to the risk of the treasury bond markets such as the United States, Europe and Japan. In fact, this is the scoring of the sovereign credit ratings of the United States, Europe and Japan. The risk of risk of risk-free assets is actually the sequelae of debt monetization. This is the key to the development of developed economies to open the door to crisis. Therefore, the current systemic risks in the world are relatively high, and the world economic situation is also more pessimistic than the IMF's forecast. (This article is an original article from Xinyueshu Finance. Please indicate the author and source from the Toutiao account Xinyueshu Finance)
