Issue 25
As of June 4, Russia has been carrying out a special military operation in Ukraine for 101 days. How will the situation evolve?
1. The battle between Russia and Ukraine was caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which originated from the five eastward expansions of NATO , constantly squeezing Russia's strategic space. Now, Ukraine is also going to join NATO with guns, and Russia finally chose to fight.
2. Overall war situation quick look
Since February 24, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in full swing. As of June 2, Zelensky admitted that Russia has controlled 125,000 square kilometers of Ukraine, about 1/5 of the land, and the area is "far more than" the sum of Netherlands , Belgium , and Luxembourg .
01 Russian army has changed from whole to partial.
Russian army concentrated artillery and reserves to attack the Udong Donbas region and the south. As the Russian army controls 95% of the territory of Luhansk, the final siege of North Donetsk is about to end with the victory of the Russian army.
02 is in a "protracted war".
At present, Ukraine flexibly combines "hybrid wars" such as public opinion war, information war, and sanctions war, which has made the " blitzkrieg " initiated by the Russian army fail to work. Both sides consume each other, and both sides are tired of fighting.
03 peace talks have been frozen.
At the end of March, the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul were the most effective yet, and have been in stagnation since then. It is contrary to the original intention of Putin by using war to promote discussion.
3. The power of sanctions has gradually become apparent
Although Western countries led by the United States do not dare to participate in the war directly, they continue to invade openly and secretly, giving Ukraine a lot of military and political support, such as from heavy tank to suicide drones, etc.
At the same time, it also exhausts all ways to isolate and sanction Russia. It not only includes finance and economy, but also extends to areas such as culture, sports, and ideology.
4. Uncover the US "conspiracy"
The US abacus is more refined. So far, the United States has spent more than 50 billion US dollars to support Ukraine. In fact, it has already secretly won the bid for the price, and in the end it still has to pay for it.
But where does Ukraine, which is deeply in trouble, have money?
As the "European granary", wheat becomes a debt repayment product.
After all, through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States weakens Russia, drains Ukraine, makes Europe obedient, allows NATO to expand, and makes a fortune in war, and harvests a wave of returning resources. The United States has reaped profits, and its multiple strategic goals are close to achieving.
5. The impact of war
01 Russia
Biden said that he was confident that he would "retreat the Russian economy for 15 years." Sanctions in multiple fields have led to a sluggish economy, shrinking development and impacted people's lives. According to reports, Russia's GDP is expected to shrink by 12% next year.
Reuters disclosed that due to the frozen foreign exchange reserves, Russia was unable to pay interest on bonds of $1.9 million, or the biggest foreign debt default in nearly a century.
02Ukraine
In the battle between Ukraine and Russia, no matter who wins or loses, the people of Ukraine suffer heavy losses.
Whether it is the losses and injuries suffered in the war, as well as the post-war economic reconstruction, material scarcity, employment pressure, sharp decline in income, and hard life, the Ukrainian people will pay for it.
Russian and Ukrainian armies exchanged fires many times, and the smoke of gunpowder stretched from Donbass to the capital Kiev . Both sides suffered large-scale war damage to varying degrees, causing millions of people to flee Ukraine and seek asylum to Europe and North America.
United Nations Refugee Agency previously stated that since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, more than 6.5 million people have left Ukraine, and they are short of food and clothing and are homeless. United Nations Children's Fund 5 said on June 1 that the situation in Ukraine has brought devastating consequences to more than 2.2 million children in the country's 3 million children and refugee host countries.
At the same time, Russia is also seeking economic and political means to cause as much damage to Ukraine as possible. Compared with Russia, Ukraine's economy may suffer greater losses.
reported that Russia's blockade of Black Sea has caused major damage to Ukraine's economy, and Ukraine's GDP may drop by 50% next year.
03 European countries
"Injure one thousand enemies, hurt eight hundred themselves". While European countries impose sanctions on Russia, their own economic impact is huge.
All kinds of European prices have skyrocketed, inflation is high, and people are complaining. EU and euro zone countries' economic growth expectations have been lowered, and the "backlash" is obvious.
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