Hidden market continued to fluctuate weakly on Tuesday. Although the decline was not large, there was no decent rebound. In fact, today's trend is basically expected. On the one hand, the performance of the foreign market overnight is still weak. For example, Nasdaq continued to fall by more than 1% yesterday and hit a new low in two years. In addition to the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P , and major European stock indexes are all very weak. On the other hand, the exchange rate market is also poor. Later yesterday, the US dollar index returned to its strength, and RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate. The situation has not improved today, and the RMB exchange rate is approaching the 7.2 mark again.
In many recent articles, Jingyang has repeatedly mentioned to you that during this period, it is better to keep a close eye on the trend of exchange rate . If the RMB cannot stop depreciating, A-shares may find it difficult to stop falling and stabilize. From the perspective of the RMB exchange rate trend pattern, we experienced a slight appreciation in the early trading yesterday. weakened again at the end of the trading session, and continued to weaken today. It has broken the expectation of building double-headed . This is what we need to be vigilant!
In addition, after the trading days of this week, there will be heavy economic data from the United States every day, such as PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday, and University of Michigan on Friday, which will have a huge impact on the short-term trend of the US dollar index. Among them, the most critical one is undoubtedly CPI data. According to Jingyang's recent analysis, due to the strong performance of the non-farm data in September, the confidence of the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates in 211. Now it is mainly confirmed that the CPI data in September did not fall significantly, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in November will be very high!
So before the key negatives are implemented, the market bulls will be very cautious and dare not buy at the bottom of at will. This is probably the reason why the rebound strength of the A-share market is weak even if it is oversold today. It is worth noting that the US September CPI data will be released on Thursday, which may become a key node for the market to change!
If the CPI is weak, it is not ruled out that the global capital market will accelerate the digging of pits and downward, and the A-share market will turn from the current slight oversold to severe oversold. Then we will see when a technical pullback will occur; on the contrary, if the CPI data is not bad, then the probability of the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate hike will be significantly reduced in one month, which may become the turning point of the operation of the global capital market!
Unfortunately, compared with these two possibilities, Jingyang believes that the probability of the former will occur higher. Because based on the recent macroeconomic data and resource price fluctuations, there are no signs of inflation cooling down. Then today's cross star trend may become a successor to this sharp decline. Friends with heavy position should pay attention.
When we talk about A-share market , although the market has no sign of bottoming out, there is not much room for a sharp fall, because the trend of A-shares not only depends on the exchange rate and foreign market, but also some internal driving factors.
For example, at the macroeconomic level, September has passed halfway, and so far, an official economic data has been released, which is PMI in September. According to previous analysis, the entire set of PMI data in September was internalized. Although the service industry PMI showed a significant decline due to epidemic prevention and control, the most important manufacturing industry PMI was still recovering and growing, rebounding by 0.7 from August, returning to the strong range. Since PMI is the first set of economic data in September, we look at other economic data in August, the domestic economy is generally in a state of recovery in August and September.
At the domestic policy level, whether it is monetary policy or fiscal policy, it is currently unanimously improving. This is still gratifying, because the world is tightening its monetary policy to deal with the strong US dollar, and only our central bank is still continuing to release money.
On the capital side, domestic institutions have seen signs of reduction in positions during this period. Judging from the overall buying trend of institutional funds, the main reduction period is concentrated in September.As positions have dropped rapidly, and the main short target track stocks have fallen significantly in stages, the need to continue to reduce positions significantly in October has decreased. Compared with domestic institutions, foreign institutions are still quite stable during this period. The RMB exchange rate depreciated sharply, and the A-share trend was weak, but statistics show that northbound funds have basically remained flat in the past month, with net outflows within 10 billion. To be honest, Jingyang was very surprised that his attitude towards holding shares was so firm.
In the market, the valuation level is indeed not high, and the overall value has been underestimated. In terms of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is around 12 times and the price-to-book ratio is around 1.3 times, both of which are at the low valuation level in recent years.
According to the above situation, although A-shares are still in the downward channel, the probability of continuing to fall sharply is not high! Many friends may ask, how much will it fall?
In the article "A-share Strategy" last night, Jingyang and everyone listed the situation after the A-share market fell below 3,000 points six times since it stood above the 3,000 point integer. From 2008 to the present, the market has fallen below the 3,000-point integer six times. In the next month, the market has fallen 5 times, and only once rebounded rapidly, which is April this year. After the market broke through 3,000 points in the first five times, the cumulative decline in the next month was almost 5%-7%. , based on the current market point, if it continues to fall by 5%, it will be almost 2850, which is the stage low in April this year.
Strategically, it is still necessary to maintain the original plan: if the market is suppressed by the 5-day line and weakens steadily, keep waiting and watching, and do not buy at the bottom easily until the market re-suspends on the 5-day line and stops falling; if the market falls sharply and deviates from the 5-day line to form oversold, then try and make a light position.
