This article is original by "Cai is clear" and is released simultaneously on all platforms. Reproduction is prohibited.
01
The United States is in a very difficult situation now. Even though it knows that the continuous hike of interest rates will inevitably harm the economy, it dares not easily turn the monetary policy .
International investment bank JPMorgan Chase CEO reminds investors that it is predicted that the Federal Reserve Fed will continue to raise interest rates, which may cause US stock to fall again on the current basis 20% .
At the same time, he also criticized the Fed for starting interest rate hikes too slowly. The United States has seen inflation continue to rise, but the Fed did not start hikes until March this year.
. Once the rate hike starts, the pace is too fast. The three consecutive rate hikes have been 75 basis points. It is very likely that when inflation and the economy react, the Fed's interest rate hike has been too large.
seems to respond to this, and Fed Vice Chairman Renard also recently said that he has noticed that monetary policy has impacted the fundamentals of the economy.
Although he emphasized on the one hand that it is necessary to control inflation , interest rates need to be raised. But on the other hand, he is more concerned about the economic risks in the coming year than other officials, and he proposes that future interest rate hikes need to be very cautious. This seems to be a sign of a turnaround.
02
However, it is very difficult to truly implement the direction of monetary policy, because the current inflation in the United States may rise.
The most critical factor in the past inflation was the rise in energy prices, and international crude oil prices have recently rebounded significantly.
Since OPEC decided to reduce production significantly, wti crude oil price has risen from 76 to more than 90 US dollars.
And this time the rise is significantly different from the past. This is the rise of international crude oil prices during the USD index .
This will inevitably push up the inflation data in the United States, so the market predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve hike only 50 basis points is less than 20%.
03
Relatively speaking, Japan is currently in greater difficulties.
Japanese stock market had fallen by 195 points last Friday, and fell sharply again today, with a drop of 650 points. What's more troublesome is that the yen-USD exchange rate is continues to fall, and has already broken through 145, and it seems that it can't stop.
At the end of September, the Bank of Japan entered the market and intervened, and the yen exchange rate rebounded significantly. However, the market was very worried about whether the Bank of Japan's rescue effect could continue. The subsequent performance of
seems to confirm this speculation. Currently, the US dollar index has returned to the level of 113, and has not reached the previous high point 114.7, but the exchange rate of the yen has fallen below 145, and has been running above 145 for three consecutive trading days.
If the Bank of Japan continues to rescue the market, it may have fewer and fewer tools and resources in its hands.
Today, Japan announced its trade situation in August, with a deficit of 2.5 trillion yen. This data has expanded significantly from the 6 trillion yen of 1.2 trillion yen in the previous month. It can be seen that the depreciation of the yen is constantly consuming Japan's foreign exchange reserves.
04
At the same time, Japan's economic difficulties are constantly consuming the savings of ordinary families. The current price increase in Japan is a speed that has never happened in the past 306.
We can understand it through a few simple examples.The latest Apple phone of
is on the market, but the price has increased by 20,000 yen compared to the previous new phone when it was launched; McDonald's restaurants in Japan have also begun to increase prices, and the price of the giant burger has increased by 20 yen, which is another price increase after the price increase in March this year.
05
For Japan, long pain is not as good as short pain. Japan is now trying to vigorously de-dollarize.
According to Japanese media reports, the Bank of Japan is preparing a brand new payment system. If this payment system starts to operate, it will conduct oil transactions with some oil-producing countries restricted by the US dollar in the form of digital currency in the future.
In addition, Japan is also committed to diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and is vigorously purchasing RMB assets to reduce excessive dependence on the US dollar. The trend of
has spread from the official to the private sector. Some Japanese pension insurance companies have also stated that the risk of holding RMB bond is smaller.
Currently, the price of US bonds is falling continuously, and since the inflation rate in the United States is much higher than the yield of US bonds, holding US bonds is actually negative, but this happens to be the advantage of RMB bonds.
The current RMB bond yields are basically above 2.5%, but China's inflation is only 1.9%, so RMB bonds maintain positive returns.
According to incomplete statistics, more than 40 countries around the world have turned on de-dollarization to varying degrees, and Japan will be another country that "left" the US dollar.
PS: Cai is clear and brings you the latest information and provides in-depth explanations. If you see this, please "like" me.
