After the incident of Pelosi's attempt to travel to Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army officially began military exercises around Taiwan, and even the mainland launched missiles, , and directly crossed over Taiwan.
However, there is one detail worth our attention, that is, on the day the military exercise started, the Taiwan stock market fell sharply by more than 200 points as soon as opened.
, but just two days later, Taiwan stocks rose by 333 points, of which TSMC rose by 3.2%, UMC rose by more than 5%, returning to the 15,000 point mark.
This incident is very strange, because when the Taiwan Strait crisis occurred in 1996, the mainland also launched missiles to warn, but the difference is that there are no missiles passing through Taiwan.
Moreover, the exercise situation was far from as big as today, but there was panic on the island of Taiwan. Not only did the stock market fall by more than 300 points that day, but there were also waves of withdrawing money, immigration and sheltering trends in the future. Many national assessment agencies have labeled Taiwan’s investment environment as “higher risk”.
Then why does the same situation have different impacts on the Taiwan stock market and Taiwan’s investment environment? This issue must be analyzed from the subtle changes in the current situation in Taiwan.
What is the current situation in Taiwan like?
From a macro perspective, the military exercises around Taiwan have actually changed the geopolitical status quo.
There is a saying that only cannons can measure the country. The People's Liberation Army has fully controlled the Taiwan Strait, and Taiwan's geostrategy will no longer be decided by itself.
For a long time, Taiwan has relied on its geographical location to provide a lot of convenience to the United States, Japan, Australia and other countries.
, especially Japan, has benefited the most from it. After the People's Liberation Army surrounded Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen tweeted overnight with Japanese , calling on the Japanese government to "fulfill its promise."
But mainland China has launched missiles to the so-called "Japanese exclusive maritime economic zone" in the waters east of Taiwan. How dare Japan hang its teeth and claws?
As an important hub of the Bashi Strait, Taiwan has completely lost this geopolitical initiative, and at the same time, without the practical help of the United States and the West, it has no ability to resist.
From a micro perspective, the foundry company , which mainly consists of TSMC and Foxconn , is most afraid of that Taiwan has been blocked in various ways, resulting in unlimited delays in construction periods.
In addition, the raw materials are shipped in a few days later and the products are sold out a few days later. This is not simply 1+1=2.
This will not only affect its turnover situation, but also affect the stability of the international futures market, leading to rapid increase in the risk assessment by relevant institutions on the Taiwan market.
If you are in this external environment for a long time, it will lead to further collapse of the international cooperation chain system. , such as , Apple , has begun to require Taiwanese suppliers to mark production land as "Taiwan, China".
The game between China and the United States is intensifying at any time. Apple may make choices that are unfavorable to Taiwan in the next round of order bidding, which is foreseeable.
In a series of events caused by the spy on Pelosi , Taiwan Island has lost its actual investment significance. Taiwan is not a high risk and high return, but a purely "high risk". This is the current situation in Taiwan.
The short-term rebound of the Taiwan stock market is mostly endogenous factors
Some people believe that after the mainland finds a way to deter the United States and Taiwan for a long time, its preferential policies to Taiwan may be adjusted, but the general direction will not change.
Although the mainland still has a series of options for "poor Taiwan and trapping Taiwan" such as sanctions and embargoes, considering the investment of unified forces involved in the unified route, this "poor Taiwan and trapping Taiwan" method may be the only one that can actually be implemented at that time.
However, whether the people who do business with the mainland are unified or independent factions has no special impact on Taiwan's internal economic environment.
As for the issue of directionality, the mainland can make timely regulation based on its own body, so there is no need to worry about this.
In essence, we want to make a horizontal cut between Taiwan and the United States, so that Taiwan can feel pain in the short term, and gradually change from the international market back to the foreign trade window of the mainland.
Of course, the DPP's approach has also deceived some investors on the island. When the People's Liberation Army launched missiles through the Taiwan Strait, the DPP deliberately did not raise the alarm, pretending to be unable to see it, and tried its best to avoid causing social panic.
In terms of public opinion response measures, the DPP instructed the island media and scholars to exaggerate that the mainland will not take action, emphasizing that Taiwan can protect itself, and the US military does not leave the public opinion atmosphere.
In addition. The Taiwan authorities also prepared the "government fund" early. With the experience in 1996, the DPP immediately protected the market when the Taiwan stock market began to fall, so the decline of the Taiwan stock market was stopped in time.
However, this is just the part that Taiwanese investors understand.
However, foreign capital is different from domestic capital. Optimism within Taiwan does not equal the optimism of external investors , and the objective factors of their respective weights are completely opposite. Especially when a considerable number of external investment institutions have more or less impure purposes.
The eastern part of Taiwan is included in the war zone for the future, and the risks of external investment have increased sharply.
From the perspective of risk control of Western capital, the eastern waters of Taiwan are the Pacific Ocean, so it means two things to be included in the war zone for the future:
1. The mainland has stated that it is necessary to start to reject the intervention of the US forces, but this blockade has two-way significance, so Taiwan has become a "siege".
At this time, Western capital entered the Taiwan market. It is probably not that simple to find an opportunity to run after taking advantage of the situation. The United States is desperately trying to transfer TSMC's approach, and how to end it will have to make a big question mark?
2. The mainland chose to isolate the United States and Taiwan in order to let Taiwan feel the importance and uniqueness of cross-strait relations.
Then, actively pushing the front line has become a very good choice. Next, we can do something along the way. There is a detail like this: the Taiwan issue white paper in the early years once promised: "If you are willing to take the initiative to return, Beijing can not send troops to Taiwan."
. In the latest Taiwan issue white paper, this statement has disappeared.
So, what we mentioned above is that the risk of external investment in Taiwan has increased dramatically, especially the investment risk of Western capital has increased dramatically and the rate of return on investment of Western forces has decreased sharply.
Since the mainland has surrounded Taiwan, it will begin to explore the specific implementation methods of the "poor and independent rich system". The PLA's normalized combat readiness police patrol will not lie, and most external investors can understand the signal.
also has a risk, which comes from changes in rules caused by the Sino-US game. Now the United States is trying hard to "anti-globalization", and the mainland has also drawn the ten-divide line for Taiwan.
Although China is forced to fight back from its own standpoint, the short-term trend of Taiwan's economic situation is indeed starting to take a bad direction.
When Western capital was unable to jump to the other side to choose Taiwan when China and the United States began to cut industrial divisions. This behavior is no different from joining the National Army in 1949.
Although judging from the experience of Hong Kong implementing , one country, two systems, , Hong Kong will indirectly become a window for Western capital to connect to the mainland, enjoying the dividends of special care.
But Taiwan is different. The background of Taiwan’s return to the times is written in the confrontation between China and the United States. China will not make Taiwan the front line of the Sino-US game, but the United States wants to make Taiwan like this. Taiwan cannot eat both ends of good food, and investors who have been following the United States for a long time cannot choose Taiwan.
The direction of TSMC may lead to the second increase in investment risks in Taiwan
This time Pelosi visited Taiwan and did something very purposeful, that is, to visit TSMC specifically.
The reason is very simple, and TSMC is required to cooperate with the US "Chip Act" to jointly block the development of the mainland chip industry.At the same time, the United States also requires TSMC to gradually transfer its industry to the United States.
Not long ago, TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin said in an interview with the media: "The mainland is not allowed to take military action against Taiwan, otherwise TSMC's chip supply to the mainland will be completely interrupted."
It can be seen that TSMC decided to stand on the same boat with the United States.
There are so many things to say here. If TSMC moves to the United States, is it still a Taiwanese company? Can its core technology be preserved? Can investors in other countries still obtain expected returns?
The answer is no. will definitely turn against each other and join hands with many American semiconductor companies to share the behemoth of TSMC.
Just think about it with your brain, TSMC, as an imported customer, can beat the American local snake?
When the war between the United States and Japan began, no matter how loyal the Japanese in the United States were or how many generations they had invested in the United States, they would confiscate their property and be arrested in concentration camps.
And after the Russian-Ukraine War, have the US and Western countries done few disgusting things to Russian-American investors?
If TSMC takes sides between China and the United States and actively cut off trade with the mainland, it will either be taken away by the United States or its industry status plummeted, and there is no third possibility.
TSMC's choice is the collective action of the US and Western capital backstop Taiwan's economy. If the giant companies trained by Taiwan with the strength of a province are sent out like this, who will dare to invest in local Taiwanese companies in the future?
In contrast, Samsung Semiconductor next to it is fully aware of the US's open conspiracy. Government personnel including Yoon Seo-yeol are working hard to show goodwill to China, hoping to build a solid "China-Korea Semiconductor Alliance".
Behind Samsung is the future of South Korea. Samsung's situation is very similar to TSMC, or Taiwan Province's situation is very similar to South Korea.
Once both lose the mainland market, Taiwan and South Korea will not have the confidence to speak loudly, and they will have to be pulled by the United States.
Therefore, South Korean President Yoon Seo-yeol refused to receive Pelosi, and Samsung Semiconductor also expressed clear rejection and strong opposition to the US chip policy.
Therefore, we will definitely not be indifferent to TSMC's actions of taking sides and selling off the common interests of both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
This time, the People's Liberation Army planned the battlefield to the area east of the Taiwan Strait, which is a potential warning. Once Taiwan is portrayed by the United States as the first home game of island chain , the mainland will clean up the investment environment on the island.
The improvement of Taiwan's investment environment must be based on relying on the mainland
In the latest Taiwan issue white paper, China imagined the unified Taiwan region and explained how positive significance it has for the development of the world economy.
These imaginations are reasonable and well-founded, and are confidently achieved by the mainland, and are unstoppable by the United States and Taiwan. Common interests will not deceive people. Because of this, more than 170 countries and regions have clearly expressed their support for the one-China policy.
Taiwan must firmly believe in one thing. Only when it becomes another window of foreign investment in the mainland can the two sides of the Taiwan Strait build a consistently positive international investment environment . As long as you stick to the one-China route, Taiwan can also become an international capital investment center like Hong Kong.
When the global economy is in a wave of recession, outside capital is also worried about where to invest. If Taiwan is willing to seize this opportunity and rely on the big tree of the mainland market, why worry about not being happier than today?
